The Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty in 2030 and the Potential from Rapid, Inclusive, and Climate-Informed Development

The impacts of climate change on poverty depend on the magnitude of climate change, but also on demographic and socioeconomic trends. An analysis of hundreds of baseline scenarios for future economic development in the absence of climate change in 92 countries shows that the drivers of poverty eradication differ across countries. Two representative scenarios are selected from these hundreds. One scenario is optimistic regarding poverty and is labeled “prosperity;” the other scenario is pessimistic and labeled “poverty.” Results from sector analyses of climate change impacts—in agriculture, health, and natural disasters—are introduced in the two scenarios. By 2030, climate change is found to have a significant impact on poverty, especially through higher food prices and reduction of agricultural production in Africa and South Asia, and through health in all regions. But the magnitude of these impacts depends on development choices. In the prosperity scenario with rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development, climate change increases poverty by between 3 million and 16 million in 2030. The increase in poverty reaches between 35 million and 122 million if development is delayed and less inclusive (the poverty scenario).

Bibliographic Details

Main Authors:	Rozenberg, Julie, Hallegatte, Stephane
Format:	Working Paper biblioteca
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2015-11
Subjects:	SANITATION, POVERTY THRESHOLD, INCOME ON FOOD, JOBS, IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, POOR PEOPLE, INDICATORS FOR POVERTY, FOOD PRICE, RISKS, IMPACT OF HURRICANES, HOUSEHOLD SIZE, HOUSEHOLD SURVEY, UNCERTAINTIES, POVERTY REDUCTION, POVERTY LINE, IMPACT ON POVERTY, SUBSTITUTION, SECTORAL RESULTS, ECONOMIC GROWTH, EMISSION ABATEMENT, POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGIES, INCOME, POVERTY RATES, POVERTY ESTIMATES, INCOME GROWTH, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, CHANGES IN PRICES, COUNTERFACTUAL, EMISSIONS, EXTREME SCENARIOS, COST‐BENEFIT ANALYSIS, FOOD PRICES, REVENUES, POVERTY REDUCTION EFFORTS, DEATH, POVERTY DYNAMICS, AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, EXTREME POVERTY LINE, MODELS, CLIMATE SCENARIOS, PRICE, GLOBAL POVERTY, CROP YIELD, MEASURES, HOUSEHOLD‐LEVEL DATA, FOOD MARKETS, HURRICANES, EXTREME WEATHER, DEEP‐UNCERTAINTY, AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, SAVINGS, ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS, SCENARIOS, PER CAPITA INCOME, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, EXTREME POVERTY, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY, CLIMATE POLICIES, FAT TAILS, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, EMISSIONS‐REDUCTION, TOTAL CONSUMPTION, LABOR PRODUCTIVITY, TRANSFERS, AGRICULTURAL WAGES, MARKETS, HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS, CYCLONES, CLIMATE CHANGE, FOOD PRODUCTION, FARMERS, FAMINE, FOOD PRODUCTS, CASH TRANSFERS, EXTREME TEMPERATURE, FINANCE, AGRICULTURAL POLICY, CROP YIELDS, CONSUMPTION, ECONOMIC IMPACT, ECONOMIC RESILIENCE, POVERTY ERADICATION, FOOD SECURITY, ECONOMIC COSTS, AGRICULTURAL WORKERS, POLICIES, INCOME REDISTRIBUTION, CLIMATIC CHANGE, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT, POLICY MAKERS, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, EXTREME EVENTS, POOR COUNTRIES, CLIMATE, ECONOMIC SECTORS, DEMAND, ABATEMENT, NATIONAL INCOME, ABSOLUTE POVERTY, AGRICULTURAL SECTOR, FOOD EXPENDITURE, CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION, MALNUTRITION, RURAL, DEEP UNCERTAINTY, NUTRITION, HOUSEHOLD BUDGET, ENVIRONMENTAL CATASTROPHE, ENERGY PRICES, PRICE INCREASE, POLICY, HUMAN HEALTH, COST OF CARBON, DRINKING WATER, HURRICANE, UNCERTAIN IMPACTS, ECONOMIC IMPACTS, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS, POOR HOUSEHOLDS, POVERTY, POOR FARMERS, FOOD PRICE FLUCTUATIONS, FOOD SUPPLY, SUPPLY, POLICY IMPLICATIONS, LABOR SUPPLY, POOR, EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS, EXCHANGE RATE, POVERTY IMPACT, DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPLICATIONS, DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACTS, ECONOMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, PRICES, ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, BENEFITS, INEQUALITY,
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/11/25257367/impacts-climate-change-poverty-2030-potential-rapid-inclusive-climate-informed-development http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23447
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