A New Scenario Framework for Climate Change Research
This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different adaptation and mitigation strategies (in terms of their costs, risks and other consequences) and the possible trade-offs and synergies. The two main axes of the matrix are: 1) the level of radiative forcing of the climate system (as characterised by the representative concentration pathways) and 2) a set of alternative plausible trajectories of future global development (described as shared socio-economic pathways). The matrix can be used to guide scenario development at different scales. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic pathways and shared policy assumptions (devices for incorporating explicit mitigation and adaptation policies), are elaborated in other papers in this special issue.
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Journal Article biblioteca |
| Language: | en_US |
| Published: |
Springer
2014-02
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| Subjects: | scenario development process, climate policy, carbon price, carbon tax, adaptation policy, adaptation finance, shared socioeconomic pathway, |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10986/23212 |
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