Sustainability of Solar Electricity : The Role of Endogenous Resource Substitution and Market Mediated Responses

This study seeks to understand how materials scarcity and competition from alternative uses affects the potential for widespread deployment of solar electricity in the long run, in light of related technology and policy uncertainties. Simulation results of a computable partial equilibrium model predict a considerable expansion of solar electricity generation worldwide in the near decades, as generation technologies improve and production costs fall. Increasing materials scarcity becomes a significant constraint for further expansion of solar generation, which grows considerably slower in the second half of the coming century. Solar generation capacity increases with higher energy demand, squeezing consumption in industries that compete for scarce minerals. Stringent climate policies hamper growth in intermittent solar photovoltaics backed by fossil fuel powered plants, but lead to a small increase in non-intermittent concentrated solar power technology. By the end of the coming century, solar electricity remains a marginal source of global electricity supply even in the world of higher energy demand, strict carbon regulations, and generation efficiency improvements.

Bibliographic Details

Main Authors:	Steinbuks, Jevgenijs, Satija, Gaurav, Zhao, Fu
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank Group, Washington, DC 2015-01
Subjects:	ABATEMENT, ABATEMENT POTENTIAL, ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY, ACCESS TO ENERGY, AEROSOLS, AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, ALLOCATION, ALTERNATIVE USES, AMORPHOUS SILICON, ANNUAL GROWTH RATE, APPROACH, ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATIONS, AVAILABILITY, BIOMASS, CADMIUM, CAPITAL ADJUSTMENT, CAPITAL COST, CAPITAL COSTS, CAPITAL STOCKS, CARBON, CARBON CONTENT, CARBON EMISSIONS, CARBON NEUTRAL, CARBON REGULATION, CLEAN ENERGY, CLEAN TECHNOLOGIES, CLIMATE, CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION, CLIMATE POLICIES, CLIMATE STABILIZATION, CO2, COAL, COAL FLOW, CONVENTIONAL ELECTRICITY, CONVENTIONAL ELECTRICITY GENERATION, COPPER, COST ESTIMATES, COST OF ENERGY, DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY, DEMAND FOR ENERGY, DEMAND FOR ENERGY SERVICES, DIESEL, DIESEL GENERATORS, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC THEORY, EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS, ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION, ELECTRIC PLANTS, ELECTRIC POWER, ELECTRIC POWER GENERATION, ELECTRIC POWER PLANTS, ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION, ELECTRICITY DEMAND, ELECTRICITY DISPATCH, ELECTRICITY GENERATING, ELECTRICITY GENERATION, ELECTRICITY GENERATION TECHNOLOGIES, ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION, ELECTRICITY SECTOR, ELECTRICITY SUPPLY, ELECTRICITY SYSTEM, ELECTRICITY TECHNOLOGY, ELECTRICITY USE, EMISSION, EMISSION CONSTRAINT, EMISSIONS FROM COAL, EMISSIONS REGULATIONS, EMISSIONS SCENARIOS, END-USE, ENERGY ECONOMICS, ENERGY INDUSTRIES, ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION, ENERGY NEEDS, ENERGY POLICIES, ENERGY POLICY, ENERGY RESOURCES, ENERGY REVIEW, ENERGY SOURCES, ENERGY TECHNOLOGY, ENVIRONMENTAL ASPECTS, ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS, ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTANTS, ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY, FEASIBILITY, FOSSIL, FOSSIL FUEL, FOSSIL FUEL ENDOWMENTS, FOSSIL FUEL PLANTS, FOSSIL FUELS, FUEL COSTS, FUEL EXTRACTION, GAS FLOW, GAS RESERVES, GENERATION CAPACITY, GENERATION OF ELECTRICITY, GHG, GHGS, GLOBAL ELECTRICITY GENERATION, GLOBAL ENERGY SUPPLY, GLOBAL GREENHOUSE, GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS, GLOBAL WARMING, GOLD, GREENHOUSE, GREENHOUSE GAS, GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS, GREENHOUSE GASES, HIGHER ENERGY DEMAND, HYDROGEN, HYDROGEN ECONOMY, INVESTMENT DECISIONS, IPCC, LAND USE, METALS, NATURAL GAS, NATURAL RESOURCES, NONRENEWABLE RESOURCE, NONRENEWABLE RESOURCES, NOX, NUCLEAR ENERGY, NUCLEAR GENERATION, NUCLEAR PLANTS, NUCLEAR POWER, OIL, OUTPUT DECLINES, PETROLEUM, PHOTOVOLTAICS, POLLUTANTS, POLLUTION, POLLUTION CONTROL, PORTFOLIO, POWER GENERATION, POWER SUPPLY, PP, PRESENT VALUE, PRODUCTION OF CONSUMER GOODS, PRODUCTION OF ELECTRICITY, QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS, RADIATIVE FORCING, RAW MATERIAL, RAW MATERIALS, REBATES, RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY, RENEWABLE ENERGY, RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES, RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES, RENEWABLE GENERATION, RENEWABLE TECHNOLOGIES, RESOURCE ECONOMICS, SILVER, SOLAR CELLS, SOLAR ELECTRICITY, SOLAR ENERGY, SOLAR PANEL, SOLAR PANELS, SOLAR POWER, SOLAR RADIATION, SOLAR TECHNOLOGIES, SOURCE OF ELECTRICITY, SOX, SUNLIGHT, SUPPLY SIDE, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, SUSTAINABLE ENERGY, THERMAL POWER, THERMAL POWER PLANTS, TIN, TOTAL ELECTRICITY GENERATION, TRADE SYSTEM, TRANSMISSION CONSTRAINTS, UNCERTAINTIES, UTILITY FUNCTION, VARIABLE COST, WATER HEATING, WELFARE FUNCTION, WIND, WIND TURBINES, WORLD ENERGY,
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/01/23884211/sustainability-solar-electricity-role-endogenous-resource-substitution-market-mediated-responses https://hdl.handle.net/10986/21394
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