MENA Quarterly Economic Brief, January 2015 : Plunging Oil Prices

This issue of the MENA Quarterly Economic Brief focuses on the implications of low oil prices for eight developing countries, or the MENA-8 (oil importers: Egypt, Tunisia, Lebanon and Jordan and oil exporters: Iran, Iraq, Yemen and Libya) and the economies of the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council), who play a major role in providing funds in the form of aid, investment, tourism revenues and remittances to the rest of the countries of the region. We make the following assumptions about the future price of oil: (i) The price will average $65 Brent p/b in 2015; (ii) a higher price $78 Brent p/b will be used for comparison analysis. As with other economic variables, there is uncertainty associated with the future price of oil, which adds to the error involved in projections. The data for 2015 2017 in the figures and tables are projections. These projections are based on statistical information available through early January 2015.

Bibliographic Details

Main Authors:	Devarajan, Shanta, Mottaghi, Lili
Format:	Publication biblioteca
Language:	English en_US
Published:	Washington, DC: World Bank 2015-01
Subjects:	ACCOUNTING, ASSETS, AVAILABILITY, AVERAGE OIL PRICE, BALANCE, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS CRISIS, BARREL, BARRELS OF OIL, BARRELS PER DAY, BILL, BILLS, BLACK MARKET, BLACK MARKET EXCHANGE RATE, BORROWING REQUIREMENT, BUDGET DEFICIT, BUDGET DEFICITS, BUFFERS, CAPACITY UTILIZATION, CAPITAL INVESTMENT, CAPITAL MARKETS, CASH TRANSFER, CASH TRANSFERS, CENTRAL BANK, CORRELATION COEFFICIENT, COST OF ENERGY, COUNTRY DUMMIES, CREDIT AGENCIES, CRUDE OIL, CRUDE OIL EXPORTS, CRUDE OIL IMPORTS, CRUDE OIL PRICES, CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION, CURRENCY, CURRENT ACCOUNT, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCES, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT, DEBT LEVELS, DEBT SERVICE, DEPENDENT VARIABLE, DEPRECIATION, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DIESEL, DIRECTION OF TRADE, DISBURSEMENT, DISBURSEMENTS, DISTRIBUTION OF OIL, DOMESTIC BANKING, DOMESTIC BANKING SYSTEM, DOMESTIC DEBT, DOMESTIC INFLATION, DOMESTIC OIL, DOMESTIC OIL PRODUCTION, DOWNWARD PRESSURE, DRILLING, DRILLING ACTIVITY, DRILLING RIGS, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ELECTRIC POWER, ELECTRICITY, ELECTRICITY TARIFFS, ENERGY BALANCE, ENERGY MIX, ENERGY PRICES, ENERGY REVIEW, EQUIPMENT, EUROBOND, EXCHANGE RATE, EXCHANGE RESTRICTIONS, EXPENDITURE, EXPORT EARNINGS, EXPORT MARKETS, EXPORT REVENUES, EXPOSURE, EXTERNAL BALANCES, EXTERNAL DEFICITS, EXTERNAL FINANCING, EXTERNAL FUNDING, FINANCES, FISCAL BALANCE, FISCAL BALANCES, FISCAL DEFICIT, FISCAL DEFICITS, FISCAL POLICY, FISCAL POSITION, FIXED EFFECTS, FOOD PRICE, FOOD PRICES, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET, FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES, FOREIGN RESERVES, FUEL, FUEL OIL, FUEL PRICE, FUEL PRICES, FUELS, FUTURES, FUTURES MARKET, FUTURES MARKETS, GAS, GAS GRID, GAS IMPORTS, GASOLINE, GENERATING CAPACITY, GLOBAL DEMAND, GLOBAL ECONOMY, GOLD, GOVERNMENT BUDGET, GOVERNMENT REVENUES, GOVERNMENT SAVING, GOVERNMENT SPENDING, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, HOLDING, IMPORT, INFLATION, INFLATION FORECAST, INFLATION RATE, INFLATIONARY PRESSURES, INTERNATIONAL BANK, INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL, INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKET, INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL STATISTICS, INTERNATIONAL MARKET, INTERNATIONAL OIL PRICES, INTERNATIONAL PRICES, INTERNATIONAL RESERVES, ISSUANCE, LABOR FORCE, LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE, LOAN, LOW OIL PRICES, MACROECONOMIC STABILIZATION, MARKET ACCESS, MARKET PRICES, MARKET SHARE, MILLION BARRELS, MILLION BARRELS PER DAY, MONETARY AUTHORITIES, MONETARY POLICY, MULTIPLE CURRENCY, MULTIPLE CURRENCY PRACTICE, NATURAL GAS, NET OIL, NET OIL EXPORTS, NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE, OIL, OIL ACCOUNTS, OIL AND GAS, OIL AND GAS SECTOR, OIL COMPANIES, OIL CONSUMER, OIL EXPORT, OIL EXPORT REVENUES, OIL EXPORTERS, OIL EXPORTING COUNTRIES, OIL EXPORTS, OIL FIELDS, OIL IMPORTER, OIL IMPORTERS, OIL IMPORTS, OIL INDUSTRY, OIL MARKET, OIL PIPELINES, OIL PRICE, OIL PRICES, OIL PRODUCERS, OIL PRODUCING, OIL PRODUCING COUNTRIES, OIL PRODUCTION, OIL REVENUE, OIL REVENUES, OIL-PRODUCING COUNTRIES, OPEC, PARALLEL MARKET, PEAK DEMAND, PEG, PENSION, PENSION FUND, PERMANENT SHOCK, PETROLEUM, PETROLEUM IMPORTS, PETROLEUM PRODUCT, PETROLEUM PRODUCT PRICES, POLITICAL INSTABILITY, PORTFOLIO, PORTFOLIO INFLOWS, POWER, POWER COMPANY, PRICE HIKES, PRICE INCREASE, PRICE OF OIL, PRIVATE CONSUMPTION, PRIVATE SECTOR, PRODUCTION COSTS, PUBLIC DEBT, PUBLIC INVESTMENT, PUBLIC SPENDING, RECESSION, REMITTANCE, REMITTANCES, RESERVE, RETURN, SHALE OIL, SLOW GROWTH, SLOWDOWN, SPOT PRICE, SPOT PRICES, STOCK MARKET, STOCK MARKET INDEX, STOCKS, SUPPLY SHOCK, SUPPLY SIDE, SUPPLY-SIDE, SURPLUSES, TAX, TOTAL DEBT, TOTAL EXPORT, TOTAL EXPORTS, TOTAL IMPORTS, TRADE BALANCE, TRADE BALANCES, TRADE DEFICIT, TRADE STATISTICS, TRADE SURPLUS, TRADING, TRADING PARTNERS, TRANCHES, TRANSPORTATION COST, TRANSPORTATION COSTS, UNCERTAINTY, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, UNEMPLOYMENT RATES, WORLD PRICES,
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/01/23884197/ http://hdl.handle.net/10986/21349
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