Bangladesh, a Middle Income Country by 2021 : What Will it Take in Terms of Poverty Reduction?

The vision 2021 plan and the associated perspective plan 2010-2021, adopted by the Government of Bangladesh lay out a series of development targets for 2021. Among the core targets identified to monitor the progress toward the vision 2021 objectives is that of attaining a poverty headcount of 14 percent by 2021. The purpose of this paper is to answer the following question: given Bangladesh's performance in poverty reduction over the last decades, can the author expect the proportion of the country's population living in poverty to be 14 percent by 2022? Using data from the last three household income and expenditures survey, we examine changes in poverty rates during 2000-2010, estimate net elasticity of poverty reduction to growth in per-capita expenditure, and then project poverty headcounts into the future. Our poverty projections based on the last three Household Income and Expenditure Surveys (HIES) surveys suggest that Bangladesh will achieve its Millennium Development Goal, or MDG goal of halving its poverty headcount to 28.5 percent by 2015 significantly ahead of schedule. Attaining the vision 2021 poverty target of 14 percent by 2021, however, is less certain as it requires a Gross Domestic Product, or GDP growth of at least 8 percent, or more than 2 percentage points higher than that observed in recent years.

Bibliographic Details

Main Authors:	Gimenez, Lea, Jolliffe, Dean, Sharif, Iffath
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2014
Subjects:	ANNUAL GROWTH, AVERAGE GROWTH, AVERAGE GROWTH RATE, CHANGES IN POVERTY, CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE, CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, CONSUMPTION GROWTH, COUNTERFACTUAL, CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION, DECLINE IN POVERTY, DECLINE IN POVERTY RATES, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY, DISTRIBUTIONAL CHANGES, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMICS LETTERS, EXTREME POVERTY, FOOD PRICES, GDP, GINI COEFFICIENT, GINI INDEX, GROSS ELASTICITY, GROWTH COMPONENT, GROWTH ELASTICITY, GROWTH PROCESS, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, HEADCOUNT RATIO, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, HOUSEHOLD SURVEY, INCIDENCE OF POVERTY, INCOME, INEQUALITY, INEQUALITY CONSTANT, LABOR FORCE, LOW INCOME, MEAN EXPENDITURE, MEAN GROWTH, NATIONAL POVERTY, NATIONAL POVERTY HEADCOUNT, NATIONAL POVERTY LINE, NEGATIVE EFFECT, NET ELASTICITY, PER CAPITA EXPENDITURE, POINT DECLINE, POLITICAL ECONOMY, POOR, POOR HOUSEHOLD, POOR PEOPLE, POORER HOUSEHOLD, POVERTY ASSESSMENT, POVERTY DECLINE, POVERTY DEPTH, POVERTY ESTIMATES, POVERTY GAP, POVERTY GAP INDEX, POVERTY HEAD, POVERTY HEADCOUNT INDEX, POVERTY HEADCOUNT RATE, POVERTY HEADCOUNT RATES, POVERTY INCIDENCE, POVERTY INDEX, POVERTY INDICES, POVERTY LEVEL, POVERTY LINE, POVERTY LINES, POVERTY MEASURES, POVERTY MONITORING, POVERTY POVERTY, POVERTY RATE, POVERTY RATES, POVERTY REDUCTION, POVERTY TARGET, POVERTY THRESHOLD, PRO-POOR, PRO-POOR GROWTH, REDUCING POVERTY, RELATIVE INEQUALITY, RURAL, RURAL AREAS, RURAL PHENOMENON, SEASONAL VARIATIONS, SUSTAINABLE GROWTH, TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE, TOTAL POVERTY, URBAN AREAS, URBAN GROWTH, WELFARE MEASURE,
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/01/19444601/bangladesh-middle-income-country-2021-take-terms-poverty-reduction https://hdl.handle.net/10986/18668
Tags:	Add Tag No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!