In a recent paper, Fiess and Verner
(2000) analyse sectoral growth in Ecuador and find
significant long-run and short-run relationships between the
agricultural, industrial and service sectors. They take this
as evidence against the dual economy model which rules out a
long-run relationship between agricultural and industrial
output and show further that a more detailed picture of the
growth process can be discovered, once the agricultural,
industrial and service sectors are disaggregated further
into intrasector components. This paper extends their
initial results and provides insight from a multivariate
cointegration analysis of intrasector components. The
authors are able to identify three cointegrating
relationships, each of which has its own meaningful economic
interpretation: Two cointegration relationships capture the
direct and indirect effects of the "petrolization"
of the Ecuadorian economy. A third relationship clearly
indicates a link between agriculture and industrial
activity. Since this third cointegrating relationship seems
to coincide in time with the trade liberalisation at the end
of the 1980s, promoting agriculture appears to be an
important way to promote sustainable economic growth in Ecuador.
Bibliographic Details
| Main Authors: |
Fiess, Norbert M.,
Verner, Dorte |
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| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper
biblioteca
|
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| Language: | English
en_US |
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| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2003-07
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| Subjects: | AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS,
AGRICULTURAL INTENSIFICATION,
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS,
AGRICULTURAL SECTOR,
AGRICULTURE,
ASYMPTOTIC DISTRIBUTION,
AUTOCORRELATION,
CALCULATION,
CAPITAL FLOWS,
CAPITAL GOODS,
COINTEGRATION,
COMPETITIVENESS,
DEBT,
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES,
DEVELOPING WORLD,
DIVERSIFICATION,
DUAL ECONOMY,
ECONOMETRIC MODELS,
ECONOMETRICS,
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT,
ECONOMIC GROWTH,
ECONOMIC INTEGRATION,
ECONOMICS,
ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES,
EQUATIONS,
EQUILIBRIUM,
EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION,
EXPORTS,
FARMERS,
FEED,
FINANCIAL SECTOR,
FOOD PROCESSING,
FOOD PRODUCTS,
GROWTH LITERATURE,
GROWTH PROCESS,
HYPOTHESES,
INCOME,
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR,
INTEREST RATES,
INTERMEDIATE GOODS,
KURTOSIS,
LONG RUN,
MACROECONOMIC INSTABILITY,
MATRICES,
MATRIX,
MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION,
NATURAL RESOURCES,
0 HYPOTHESIS,
OIL,
OIL RESERVES,
OIL SECTOR,
PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS,
POLICY RESEARCH,
PRODUCTIVITY,
PUBLIC SECTOR,
PUBLIC SERVICES,
RANDOM ERRORS,
RAPID GROWTH,
REAL GDP,
RELATIVE IMPORTANCE,
SAMPLE SIZE,
SKEWNESS,
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS,
TIME SERIES,
WEALTH,
SUSTAINABLE GROWTH,
PETROLEUM INDUSTRY, |
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2003/07/2874564/oil-agriculture-public-sector-linking-intersector-dynamics-ecuador
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/18156
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