Market Disequilibria and Inflation in Uzbekistan, 1994-2000

The author develops, and applies a macroeconomic framework to ascertain the influence of domestic disequilibria, and external shocks on inflation dynamics in Uzbekistan. Using quarterly data for the period 1994:01 to 2000:03, he estimates several "long-run" relationships for the goods, money, and foreign exchange markets of Uzbekistan, which are characterized by multiple exchange rates, import restrictions, and other domestic administrative controls. The empirical estimates, which use error correction mechanisms for different markets, show that domestic monetary, and output developments, and changes in the official exchange rate, compared with the parallel market rate, have had a significant influence on the short-run behavior of the foreign exchange market in Uzbekistan. Furthermore, disequilibria in the product, and money markets are the major forces driving short-run inflation dynamics in Uzbekistan. It should be noted that the study has been constrained by both the quantity, and the quality of quarterly data available for the Uzbekistan economy.

Bibliographic Details

Main Author:	Ranaweera, Thilak
Format:	Policy Research Working Paper biblioteca
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2003-10
Subjects:	AGGREGATE DEMAND, AGRICULTURE, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BUDGET DEFICIT, BUDGET DEFICITS, BUSINESS CYCLES, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CPI, CURRENCY, CURRENCY SUBSTITUTION, CURRENCY UNITS, DEBT, DEMAND FOR MONEY, DEUTSCHE MARK, DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DISINFLATION, DOMESTIC PRICE, DOMESTIC PRICE LEVEL, DOMESTIC PRICES, ECONOMIC DYNAMICS, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC STATISTICS, ELASTICITY, EMPIRICAL STUDIES, EMPLOYMENT, EQUATIONS, EQUILIBRIUM, EXCHANGE RATE, EXCHANGE RATES, EXPENDITURES, EXPORTS, EXTERNAL DEBT, EXTERNAL SHOCKS, FISCAL POLICIES, FOREIGN BORROWING, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET, FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS, FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE, FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES, FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES, GNP, GOLD PRICES, GOVERNMENT SPENDING, GROWTH RATE, IMPORTS, INDUSTRIALIZATION, INFLATION, INFLATION RATE, INFLATION STABILIZATION, INTEREST RATES, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, LOCAL CURRENCY, MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, MACROECONOMIC POLICIES, MACROECONOMICS, MARKET CONDITIONS, MONEY BALANCES, MONEY DEMAND, MONEY MARKET, MONEY MARKETS, MONEY SUPPLY, MULTIPLE EXCHANGE RATES, NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE, NOMINAL INTEREST RATES, OUTPUT, OUTPUTS, PEGS, PHILLIPS CURVE, PRICE INCREASES, PRICE LIBERALIZATION, PRODUCT MARKETS, PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS, PUBLIC INVESTMENT, PUBLIC SECTOR, REAL EXCHANGE RATE, REAL GDP, REAL INTEREST RATES, RELATIVE PRICE, SEASONAL FACTORS, SPREAD, STABILIZATION PROGRAMS, STATISTICAL ANALYSIS, SUBSTITUTES, SUBSTITUTION EFFECT, TAX REVENUES, TERMS OF TRADE, TIME SERIES, TRADE BALANCE, TRADE REGIME, TRANSITION ECONOMIES, VALUATION, WAGE CONTROLS MARKET DISRUPTION, DISEQUILIBRIUM (ECONOMICS), MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS, DOMESTIC MARKETS, INFLATIONARY PRESSURES, GOODS, MONEY MARKET ACCOUNTS, RESTRICTIVE BUSINESS PRACTICES, ERROR CORRECTION MODELS, MONETARY INDEXES, PARALLEL EXCHANGE RATES, MARKET DISRUPTION, WAGE CONTROLS,
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2003/10/2624934/market-disequilibria-inflation-uzbekistan-1994-2000 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/18035
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