Simulating Poverty in Europe : The Potential Contributions of Employment and Education to Reducing Poverty and Social Exclusion by 2020

This paper sheds light on the impact of improving employment and education conditions on poverty and social exclusion indicators. More specifically, it answers the following question: Will achieving the Europe 2020 national targets on employment and education lead countries to achieve the Europe 2020 poverty and social exclusion target with no other policy interventions? The paper presents a simple partial equilibrium model that is flexible enough to be implemented in a number of different settings and uses widely available household survey data. The simulation model analyzes poverty and social exclusion outcomes in response to changes in education completion rates and employment rates. The model is applied to ten of the European Union's new Member States -- Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia -- and the model's performance is evaluated through a validation exercise. The Europe 2020 national employment targets are ambitious in many of the new Member States, given historical employment patterns in the countries. Especially in light of the slow and uncertain recovery, labor markets remain weak and employment rates in 2020 could fall short of rates targeted by national policy makers. In this eventuality, the poverty and social exclusion goals may not be reached in many of the new Member States without additional policy measures.

Bibliographic Details

Main Authors:	Ajwad, Mohamed Ihsan, Simler, Kenneth, Azam, Mehtabul, Dasgupta, Basab, Bonch-Osmolovskiy, Misha, Topinska, Irena
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2013-10
Subjects:	ABSOLUTE POVERTY, BENEFICIARIES, CAPITAL INVESTMENTS, CHRONIC ILLNESS, CITIES, COUNTRY LEVEL, DEPENDENT VARIABLE, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY, DISABLED PEOPLE, DISADVANTAGED GROUPS, ECONOMIC GROWTH, EDUCATION LEVEL, EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT, EMPLOYMENT GROWTH, EMPLOYMENT PATTERNS, EMPLOYMENT STATUS, EQUILIBRIUM, ESTIMATED COEFFICIENTS, EXPLAINING CHANGES, EXPLANATORY VARIABLES, FAMILY LABOR, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FORECASTS, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, HIGH EMPLOYMENT, HIGH GROWTH, HOSPITALS, HOUSEHOLD BUDGET, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, HOUSEHOLD SIZE, HOUSEHOLD SURVEY, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, IMMIGRANTS, IMPACT ON POVERTY, INCOME, INCOME DATA, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, INCOME DISTRIBUTIONS, INCOME INEQUALITY, INCOME POVERTY, INCOME TRANSFERS, INDEPENDENT VARIABLES, INDEXES, INDICATORS OF POVERTY, INEQUALITY, INNOVATION, INSURANCE, LABOR FORCE, LABOR MARKET, LABOR MARKET INDICATORS, LABOR MARKETS, OLD AGE, OLDER WORKERS, OUTCOME INDICATORS, PER CAPITA GROWTH, PERSISTENT POVERTY, POLICY CHANGE, POLICY INTERVENTIONS, POLICY MAKERS, POLICY MEASURES, POLICY REFORMS, POLICY RESEARCH, POOR, POOR PEOPLE, POVERTY IMPACTS, POVERTY INCIDENCE, POVERTY INDICATORS, POVERTY LEVELS, POVERTY LINE, POVERTY POVERTY, POVERTY RATE, POVERTY RATES, POVERTY REDUCTION, POVERTY THRESHOLD, PRIVATE TRANSFERS, PROBABILITY, REDUCING POVERTY, REFORM PROGRAMS, RELATIVE POVERTY LINE, RETIREMENT, RURAL, RURAL AREAS, SECOND ROUND EFFECTS, SELECTION BIAS, SHARP REDUCTION, SIGNIFICANT IMPACT, SOCIAL ASSISTANCE, SOCIAL BENEFITS, SOCIAL INCLUSION, SOCIAL PROGRAMS, SOCIAL PROTECTION, TARGETING, UNEMPLOYED, UNEMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS, WAGES,
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/10/18404040/simulating-poverty-europe-potential-contributions-employment-education-reducing-poverty-social-exclusion-2020 https://hdl.handle.net/10986/16873
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