The Case of Climate Change Adaptation in Campeche, Mexico : Uncertain Future, Robust Decisions

This documented case of climate change adaptation in Campeche Mexico grapples with a problem that is fundamental to addressing climate change risks in areas of high vulnerability, which is how to reach consensus and take decisions under an uncertain future. The state of Campeche in Mexico, is used as an example. With its long coastline, Campeche is highly vulnerable to current and projected future climate threats. Two different approaches to decision making under uncertainty have been explored. (i) A Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) approach was used to systematically analyze expected impacts, identify and agree on a menu of adaptation measures, and prioritize those measures, using a powerful combination of solid scientific knowledge and local expertise. (ii) The real options theory approach was applied to selected adaptation alternatives, and the benefits of waiting were compared with the costs of delaying decisions. In general, options that were modular and flexible were found to lead to more robust and prudent adaptation measures. The specific results obtained in this work are less important than the overall tenor and spirit of the messages from these exercises. Most importantly both exercises SEA and real options demonstrated that involved actors are ultimately consistent and cautious in their approach to climate risks. An important lesson to emerge from this work is that there is merit in adopting multiple approaches to tackle problems where uncertainty looms large. When the answers converge there is likely to be greater confidence in the outcomes. A second and perhaps more important lesson is the need to identify all costs including the options foregone by embarking on an irreversible course of action.

Bibliographic Details

Main Author:	World Bank
Format:	Working Paper biblioteca
Language:	English en_US
Published:	Washington, DC 2013-01
Subjects:	ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT, AERIAL PHOTOGRAPHS, AGRICULTURAL PURPOSES, AGRICULTURE, AIR, AIR QUALITY, ALTERNATIVE ENERGY, AMPHIBIANS, AQUACULTURE, ATMOSPHERIC MODELS, ATMOSPHERIC PHENOMENA, BAROMETRIC PRESSURE, BASINS, BAY, BEACH, BEACH EROSION, BEACH PROFILE, BEACHES, BENEFIT ANALYSIS, BIODIVERSITY, BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION, BIOLOGICAL MONITORING, BIOLOGY, BIOSPHERE, BRACKISH WATER, CARBON, CARBON CAPTURE, CARBON EMISSION, CARBON SINK, CLASSIFICATION, CLIMATE, CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION, CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS, CLIMATE EVENT, CLIMATE IMPACTS, CLIMATE RISK, CLIMATE RISKS, CLIMATE THREATS, CLIMATE TRENDS, CLIMATIC CONDITIONS, CO, COAST, COASTAL AREAS, COASTAL CHANGE, COASTAL DEVELOPMENT, COASTAL ECOSYSTEM, COASTAL EROSION, COASTAL MANAGEMENT, COASTAL MONITORING, COASTAL PROTECTION, COASTAL STATES, COASTAL SYSTEMS, COASTAL WETLAND, COASTAL WETLANDS, COASTAL ZONE, COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT, COASTAL ZONES, COASTLINE, COASTLINES, COASTS, COLORS, CONSERVATION, CONSTRUCTION, CONTINENTS, CORAL, CORAL REEFS, CORROSION, CREATED WETLANDS, CROPS, CURRENTS, DAMS, DECISION MAKING, DELTA, DIKES, DRAINAGE, DRAINAGE SYSTEMS, DUNE, DUNES, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC ANALYSIS, ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC INSTRUMENTS, ECONOMIC VALUE, ECONOMICS, ECONOMISTS, ECOSYSTEMS, EMISSION REDUCTION, ENDANGERED SPECIES, ENERGY EFFICIENCY, ENVIRONMENTAL, ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT, ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION, ESTUARIES, ESTUARY, EUTROPHICATION, EXTERNALITIES, EXTREME EVENTS, FIRE PREVENTION, FISH, FISH POPULATION, FISHERIES, FISHING, FLOODING, FLOODPLAINS, FLOODS, FOOD PRODUCTION, FOREST, FOREST FIRES, FORESTS, FRESHWATER, GAS, GAS PRODUCTION, GEOLOGY, GLACIERS, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE, GLOBAL TEMPERATURE, GREENHOUSE, GROUNDWATER, GULF, HABITAT DEGRADATION, HABITATS, HOUSING, HUMAN ACTIVITIES, HURRICANES, HYDROCARBON, HYDROCARBONS, HYDROGRAPHY, ICE MASSES, IMAGES, INCUBATION, INDUSTRIAL EXPANSION, IPCC, LAND AREA, LAND MANAGEMENT, LAND RECLAMATION, LAND USE, LAND USE CHANGE, LAND USE PLANS, LIQUID WASTE, LITTORAL, MANGROVE, MANGROVE FORESTS, MANGROVES, MARINE TURTLES, MEAN SEA LEVEL, MIGRATORY BIRDS, MITIGATION, NATIONAL CLIMATE, NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE, NATIONAL SCALE, NATURAL RESOURCE, NATURAL RESOURCES, NUTRIENT, OCEAN CURRENT, OCEAN CURRENTS, OCEAN TEMPERATURE, OCEANS, OIL, OIL INDUSTRY, OIL RESERVES, OPTION VALUE, ORGANIC LOADS, PEAK FLOWS, PERMIT REGULATIONS, PLANT SPECIES, PLAYA, POLICY DECISIONS, POLICY INSTRUMENTS, POLICY MAKERS, POLLUTION, POPULATION DYNAMICS, POPULATION GROWTH, PP, PRECIPITATION, PRECIPITATION INTENSITY, PRECIPITATION PATTERNS, PRESENT VALUE, PRESERVATION, PRODUCTION COSTS, PRODUCTION PATTERNS, PUBLIC HEALTH, QUALITY STANDARDS, RAIN, RAINFALL, RAINFALL EVENTS, RAINFALL INTENSITY, RAINWATER, RESERVOIRS, RESOURCE MANAGEMENT, RESTORATION, RESTORATION PROGRAMS, RETROFITTING, RIVER, RIVER DELTAS, RUNOFF, RURAL DEVELOPMENT, SALINITY, SALT MARSHES, SALTWATER INTRUSION, SATELLITE DATA, SATELLITE IMAGES, SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE, SEA, SEA LEVEL, SEA LEVEL RISE, SEA LEVEL RISES, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, SEA TURTLES, SEABED, SEAGRASSES, SEAS, SEASHORE, SEDIMENT, SEDIMENT TRANSPORT, SEDIMENTATION, SEDIMENTS, SHORE, SHORELINE, SPECIES, SPECIES DIVERSITY, STORM SURGE, STORM SURGES, STORMS, SUBSTRATES, SURFACE TEMPERATURE, SURFACE WATERS, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, SUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENT, SWAMPS, TEMPERATURE RECORDS, TIDE, TIDES, TOPOGRAPHIC MAPS, TOPOGRAPHY, TROPICAL CYCLONES, TROPICAL DRY FOREST, TROPICAL STORMS, TSUNAMIS, TURTLE, UNDERGROUND WATER, VEGETATION, WASTE MANAGEMENT, WATER LEVELS, WATER QUALITY, WATER RESOURCES, WATER USE, WAVES, WEATHER CONDITIONS, WETLAND, WETLAND ECOSYSTEMS, WETLAND RESTORATION, WETLANDS, WIND, WINDS,
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/01/17618011/campeche-mexico-case-climate-change-adaptation-uncertain-future-robust-decisions http://hdl.handle.net/10986/16591
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