Middle-Income Traps : A Conceptual and Empirical Survey
In recent years, the term "middle-income trap" has entered common parlance in the development policy community. The term itself often has not been precisely defined in the incipient literature. This paper discusses in more detail definitional issues on the so-called middle-income trap. The paper presents evidence in terms of both absolute and relative thresholds. To get a better understanding of whether the performance of the middle-income trap has been different from other income categories, the paper examines historical transition phases in the inter-country distribution of income based on previous work in the literature. Transition matrix analysis provides little support for the idea of a middle-income trap. Analysis of cross-country patterns of growth provides additional support for the conclusions in the paper, which closes with a general discussion of potential policy implications.
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dig-okr-10986160452024-08-08T14:20:17Z Middle-Income Traps : A Conceptual and Empirical Survey Im, Fernando Gabriel Rosenblatt, David ACCELERATORS AVERAGE GROWTH AVERAGE INCOME AVERAGE INCOMES BENCHMARK BUSINESS CYCLE CAPITA GROWTH CAPITAL ACCUMULATION CONDITIONAL CONVERGENCE CONSTANT RETURNS CONSTANT RETURNS TO SCALE CONVERGENCE PROCESS COUNTRY CLASSIFICATIONS DATA SET DEBT DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT OUTCOMES DEVELOPMENT POLICY DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY DIFFERENCES IN INCOME DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC GROWTH RATES ECONOMIC HISTORY ECONOMIC INDICATORS ECONOMIC OUTCOMES ECONOMIC POLICY ECONOMIC PROGRESS ECONOMIC STRUCTURE ECONOMICS LITERATURE EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE EMPIRICAL LITERATURE EMPIRICAL REGULARITY EXCHANGE RATES EXTERNALITY FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL MARKETS FLUCTUATIONS GDP GDP PER CAPITA GROWTH INCREASES GROWTH MODELS GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES GROWTH VOLATILITY HIGH INCOME HIGH INCOME COUNTRIES HIGH INCOME COUNTRY HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE HOUSEHOLD INCOME HUMAN CAPITAL INCOME INCOME DISTRIBUTION INCOME DYNAMICS INCOME GROUP INCOME GROUPS INCOME GROWTH INCOME LEVELS INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES INFANT MORTALITY INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND INVESTMENT CLIMATE LEVEL OF INCOME LIC LIFE EXPECTANCY LOW INCOME LOW INCOME COUNTRIES MACROECONOMIC STABILITY MEASUREMENT ERROR MEDIAN INCOME MIDDLE CLASS MIDDLE INCOME MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRY MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES MORTALITY RATES MULTIPLE EQUILIBRIA NATIONAL INCOME NEGATIVE SHOCKS NEOCLASSICAL GROWTH NEOCLASSICAL GROWTH MODEL PER CAPITA GROWTH PER CAPITA INCOME PER CAPITA INCOMES POLICY DETERMINANTS POLICY DISCUSSIONS POLICY IMPLICATIONS POLICY RESEARCH POSITIVE GROWTH POVERTY MEASUREMENT PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE PURCHASING POWER PURCHASING POWER PARITY RATE OF GROWTH REAL GDP RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION RELATIVE INCOME RELATIVE INCOME DISTRIBUTION RELATIVE INCOMES SECONDARY ENROLLMENT SKILLED LABOR SOCIAL OUTCOMES STAGNATION STANDARD DEVIATION STANDARD OF LIVING TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY VOLATILITY WAGES WELFARE ECONOMICS In recent years, the term "middle-income trap" has entered common parlance in the development policy community. The term itself often has not been precisely defined in the incipient literature. This paper discusses in more detail definitional issues on the so-called middle-income trap. The paper presents evidence in terms of both absolute and relative thresholds. To get a better understanding of whether the performance of the middle-income trap has been different from other income categories, the paper examines historical transition phases in the inter-country distribution of income based on previous work in the literature. Transition matrix analysis provides little support for the idea of a middle-income trap. Analysis of cross-country patterns of growth provides additional support for the conclusions in the paper, which closes with a general discussion of potential policy implications. 2013-10-02T21:52:14Z 2013-10-02T21:52:14Z 2013-09 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/09/18220959/middle-income-traps-conceptual-empirical-survey https://hdl.handle.net/10986/16045 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 6594 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank application/pdf text/plain World Bank, Washington, DC |
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| language |
English en_US |
| topic |
ACCELERATORS AVERAGE GROWTH AVERAGE INCOME AVERAGE INCOMES BENCHMARK BUSINESS CYCLE CAPITA GROWTH CAPITAL ACCUMULATION CONDITIONAL CONVERGENCE CONSTANT RETURNS CONSTANT RETURNS TO SCALE CONVERGENCE PROCESS COUNTRY CLASSIFICATIONS DATA SET DEBT DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT OUTCOMES DEVELOPMENT POLICY DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY DIFFERENCES IN INCOME DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC GROWTH RATES ECONOMIC HISTORY ECONOMIC INDICATORS ECONOMIC OUTCOMES ECONOMIC POLICY ECONOMIC PROGRESS ECONOMIC STRUCTURE ECONOMICS LITERATURE EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE EMPIRICAL LITERATURE EMPIRICAL REGULARITY EXCHANGE RATES EXTERNALITY FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL MARKETS FLUCTUATIONS GDP GDP PER CAPITA GROWTH INCREASES GROWTH MODELS GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES GROWTH VOLATILITY HIGH INCOME HIGH INCOME COUNTRIES HIGH INCOME COUNTRY HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE HOUSEHOLD INCOME HUMAN CAPITAL INCOME INCOME DISTRIBUTION INCOME DYNAMICS INCOME GROUP INCOME GROUPS INCOME GROWTH INCOME LEVELS INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES INFANT MORTALITY INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND INVESTMENT CLIMATE LEVEL OF INCOME LIC LIFE EXPECTANCY LOW INCOME LOW INCOME COUNTRIES MACROECONOMIC STABILITY MEASUREMENT ERROR MEDIAN INCOME MIDDLE CLASS MIDDLE INCOME MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRY MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES MORTALITY RATES MULTIPLE EQUILIBRIA NATIONAL INCOME NEGATIVE SHOCKS NEOCLASSICAL GROWTH NEOCLASSICAL GROWTH MODEL PER CAPITA GROWTH PER CAPITA INCOME PER CAPITA INCOMES POLICY DETERMINANTS POLICY DISCUSSIONS POLICY IMPLICATIONS POLICY RESEARCH POSITIVE GROWTH POVERTY MEASUREMENT PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE PURCHASING POWER PURCHASING POWER PARITY RATE OF GROWTH REAL GDP RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION RELATIVE INCOME RELATIVE INCOME DISTRIBUTION RELATIVE INCOMES SECONDARY ENROLLMENT SKILLED LABOR SOCIAL OUTCOMES STAGNATION STANDARD DEVIATION STANDARD OF LIVING TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY VOLATILITY WAGES WELFARE ECONOMICS ACCELERATORS AVERAGE GROWTH AVERAGE INCOME AVERAGE INCOMES BENCHMARK BUSINESS CYCLE CAPITA GROWTH CAPITAL ACCUMULATION CONDITIONAL CONVERGENCE CONSTANT RETURNS CONSTANT RETURNS TO SCALE CONVERGENCE PROCESS COUNTRY CLASSIFICATIONS DATA SET DEBT DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT OUTCOMES DEVELOPMENT POLICY DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY DIFFERENCES IN INCOME DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC GROWTH RATES ECONOMIC HISTORY ECONOMIC INDICATORS ECONOMIC OUTCOMES ECONOMIC POLICY ECONOMIC PROGRESS ECONOMIC STRUCTURE ECONOMICS LITERATURE EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE EMPIRICAL LITERATURE EMPIRICAL REGULARITY EXCHANGE RATES EXTERNALITY FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL MARKETS FLUCTUATIONS GDP GDP PER CAPITA GROWTH INCREASES GROWTH MODELS GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES GROWTH VOLATILITY HIGH INCOME HIGH INCOME COUNTRIES HIGH INCOME COUNTRY HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE HOUSEHOLD INCOME HUMAN CAPITAL INCOME INCOME DISTRIBUTION INCOME DYNAMICS INCOME GROUP INCOME GROUPS INCOME GROWTH INCOME LEVELS INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES INFANT MORTALITY INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND INVESTMENT CLIMATE LEVEL OF INCOME LIC LIFE EXPECTANCY LOW INCOME LOW INCOME COUNTRIES MACROECONOMIC STABILITY MEASUREMENT ERROR MEDIAN INCOME MIDDLE CLASS MIDDLE INCOME MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRY MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES MORTALITY RATES MULTIPLE EQUILIBRIA NATIONAL INCOME NEGATIVE SHOCKS NEOCLASSICAL GROWTH NEOCLASSICAL GROWTH MODEL PER CAPITA GROWTH PER CAPITA INCOME PER CAPITA INCOMES POLICY DETERMINANTS POLICY DISCUSSIONS POLICY IMPLICATIONS POLICY RESEARCH POSITIVE GROWTH POVERTY MEASUREMENT PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE PURCHASING POWER PURCHASING POWER PARITY RATE OF GROWTH REAL GDP RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION RELATIVE INCOME RELATIVE INCOME DISTRIBUTION RELATIVE INCOMES SECONDARY ENROLLMENT SKILLED LABOR SOCIAL OUTCOMES STAGNATION STANDARD DEVIATION STANDARD OF LIVING TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY VOLATILITY WAGES WELFARE ECONOMICS |
| spellingShingle |
ACCELERATORS AVERAGE GROWTH AVERAGE INCOME AVERAGE INCOMES BENCHMARK BUSINESS CYCLE CAPITA GROWTH CAPITAL ACCUMULATION CONDITIONAL CONVERGENCE CONSTANT RETURNS CONSTANT RETURNS TO SCALE CONVERGENCE PROCESS COUNTRY CLASSIFICATIONS DATA SET DEBT DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT OUTCOMES DEVELOPMENT POLICY DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY DIFFERENCES IN INCOME DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC GROWTH RATES ECONOMIC HISTORY ECONOMIC INDICATORS ECONOMIC OUTCOMES ECONOMIC POLICY ECONOMIC PROGRESS ECONOMIC STRUCTURE ECONOMICS LITERATURE EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE EMPIRICAL LITERATURE EMPIRICAL REGULARITY EXCHANGE RATES EXTERNALITY FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL MARKETS FLUCTUATIONS GDP GDP PER CAPITA GROWTH INCREASES GROWTH MODELS GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES GROWTH VOLATILITY HIGH INCOME HIGH INCOME COUNTRIES HIGH INCOME COUNTRY HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE HOUSEHOLD INCOME HUMAN CAPITAL INCOME INCOME DISTRIBUTION INCOME DYNAMICS INCOME GROUP INCOME GROUPS INCOME GROWTH INCOME LEVELS INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES INFANT MORTALITY INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND INVESTMENT CLIMATE LEVEL OF INCOME LIC LIFE EXPECTANCY LOW INCOME LOW INCOME COUNTRIES MACROECONOMIC STABILITY MEASUREMENT ERROR MEDIAN INCOME MIDDLE CLASS MIDDLE INCOME MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRY MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES MORTALITY RATES MULTIPLE EQUILIBRIA NATIONAL INCOME NEGATIVE SHOCKS NEOCLASSICAL GROWTH NEOCLASSICAL GROWTH MODEL PER CAPITA GROWTH PER CAPITA INCOME PER CAPITA INCOMES POLICY DETERMINANTS POLICY DISCUSSIONS POLICY IMPLICATIONS POLICY RESEARCH POSITIVE GROWTH POVERTY MEASUREMENT PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE PURCHASING POWER PURCHASING POWER PARITY RATE OF GROWTH REAL GDP RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION RELATIVE INCOME RELATIVE INCOME DISTRIBUTION RELATIVE INCOMES SECONDARY ENROLLMENT SKILLED LABOR SOCIAL OUTCOMES STAGNATION STANDARD DEVIATION STANDARD OF LIVING TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY VOLATILITY WAGES WELFARE ECONOMICS ACCELERATORS AVERAGE GROWTH AVERAGE INCOME AVERAGE INCOMES BENCHMARK BUSINESS CYCLE CAPITA GROWTH CAPITAL ACCUMULATION CONDITIONAL CONVERGENCE CONSTANT RETURNS CONSTANT RETURNS TO SCALE CONVERGENCE PROCESS COUNTRY CLASSIFICATIONS DATA SET DEBT DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT OUTCOMES DEVELOPMENT POLICY DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY DIFFERENCES IN INCOME DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC GROWTH RATES ECONOMIC HISTORY ECONOMIC INDICATORS ECONOMIC OUTCOMES ECONOMIC POLICY ECONOMIC PROGRESS ECONOMIC STRUCTURE ECONOMICS LITERATURE EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE EMPIRICAL LITERATURE EMPIRICAL REGULARITY EXCHANGE RATES EXTERNALITY FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL MARKETS FLUCTUATIONS GDP GDP PER CAPITA GROWTH INCREASES GROWTH MODELS GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES GROWTH VOLATILITY HIGH INCOME HIGH INCOME COUNTRIES HIGH INCOME COUNTRY HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE HOUSEHOLD INCOME HUMAN CAPITAL INCOME INCOME DISTRIBUTION INCOME DYNAMICS INCOME GROUP INCOME GROUPS INCOME GROWTH INCOME LEVELS INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES INFANT MORTALITY INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND INVESTMENT CLIMATE LEVEL OF INCOME LIC LIFE EXPECTANCY LOW INCOME LOW INCOME COUNTRIES MACROECONOMIC STABILITY MEASUREMENT ERROR MEDIAN INCOME MIDDLE CLASS MIDDLE INCOME MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRY MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES MORTALITY RATES MULTIPLE EQUILIBRIA NATIONAL INCOME NEGATIVE SHOCKS NEOCLASSICAL GROWTH NEOCLASSICAL GROWTH MODEL PER CAPITA GROWTH PER CAPITA INCOME PER CAPITA INCOMES POLICY DETERMINANTS POLICY DISCUSSIONS POLICY IMPLICATIONS POLICY RESEARCH POSITIVE GROWTH POVERTY MEASUREMENT PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE PURCHASING POWER PURCHASING POWER PARITY RATE OF GROWTH REAL GDP RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION RELATIVE INCOME RELATIVE INCOME DISTRIBUTION RELATIVE INCOMES SECONDARY ENROLLMENT SKILLED LABOR SOCIAL OUTCOMES STAGNATION STANDARD DEVIATION STANDARD OF LIVING TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY VOLATILITY WAGES WELFARE ECONOMICS Im, Fernando Gabriel Rosenblatt, David Middle-Income Traps : A Conceptual and Empirical Survey |
| description |
In recent years, the term
"middle-income trap" has entered common parlance
in the development policy community. The term itself often
has not been precisely defined in the incipient literature.
This paper discusses in more detail definitional issues on
the so-called middle-income trap. The paper presents
evidence in terms of both absolute and relative thresholds.
To get a better understanding of whether the performance of
the middle-income trap has been different from other income
categories, the paper examines historical transition phases
in the inter-country distribution of income based on
previous work in the literature. Transition matrix analysis
provides little support for the idea of a middle-income
trap. Analysis of cross-country patterns of growth provides
additional support for the conclusions in the paper, which
closes with a general discussion of potential policy implications. |
| topic_facet |
ACCELERATORS AVERAGE GROWTH AVERAGE INCOME AVERAGE INCOMES BENCHMARK BUSINESS CYCLE CAPITA GROWTH CAPITAL ACCUMULATION CONDITIONAL CONVERGENCE CONSTANT RETURNS CONSTANT RETURNS TO SCALE CONVERGENCE PROCESS COUNTRY CLASSIFICATIONS DATA SET DEBT DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT OUTCOMES DEVELOPMENT POLICY DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY DIFFERENCES IN INCOME DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC GROWTH RATES ECONOMIC HISTORY ECONOMIC INDICATORS ECONOMIC OUTCOMES ECONOMIC POLICY ECONOMIC PROGRESS ECONOMIC STRUCTURE ECONOMICS LITERATURE EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE EMPIRICAL LITERATURE EMPIRICAL REGULARITY EXCHANGE RATES EXTERNALITY FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL MARKETS FLUCTUATIONS GDP GDP PER CAPITA GROWTH INCREASES GROWTH MODELS GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES GROWTH VOLATILITY HIGH INCOME HIGH INCOME COUNTRIES HIGH INCOME COUNTRY HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE HOUSEHOLD INCOME HUMAN CAPITAL INCOME INCOME DISTRIBUTION INCOME DYNAMICS INCOME GROUP INCOME GROUPS INCOME GROWTH INCOME LEVELS INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES INFANT MORTALITY INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND INVESTMENT CLIMATE LEVEL OF INCOME LIC LIFE EXPECTANCY LOW INCOME LOW INCOME COUNTRIES MACROECONOMIC STABILITY MEASUREMENT ERROR MEDIAN INCOME MIDDLE CLASS MIDDLE INCOME MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRY MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES MORTALITY RATES MULTIPLE EQUILIBRIA NATIONAL INCOME NEGATIVE SHOCKS NEOCLASSICAL GROWTH NEOCLASSICAL GROWTH MODEL PER CAPITA GROWTH PER CAPITA INCOME PER CAPITA INCOMES POLICY DETERMINANTS POLICY DISCUSSIONS POLICY IMPLICATIONS POLICY RESEARCH POSITIVE GROWTH POVERTY MEASUREMENT PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE PURCHASING POWER PURCHASING POWER PARITY RATE OF GROWTH REAL GDP RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION RELATIVE INCOME RELATIVE INCOME DISTRIBUTION RELATIVE INCOMES SECONDARY ENROLLMENT SKILLED LABOR SOCIAL OUTCOMES STAGNATION STANDARD DEVIATION STANDARD OF LIVING TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY VOLATILITY WAGES WELFARE ECONOMICS |
| author |
Im, Fernando Gabriel Rosenblatt, David |
| author_facet |
Im, Fernando Gabriel Rosenblatt, David |
| author_sort |
Im, Fernando Gabriel |
| title |
Middle-Income Traps : A Conceptual and Empirical Survey |
| title_short |
Middle-Income Traps : A Conceptual and Empirical Survey |
| title_full |
Middle-Income Traps : A Conceptual and Empirical Survey |
| title_fullStr |
Middle-Income Traps : A Conceptual and Empirical Survey |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Middle-Income Traps : A Conceptual and Empirical Survey |
| title_sort |
middle-income traps : a conceptual and empirical survey |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2013-09 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/09/18220959/middle-income-traps-conceptual-empirical-survey https://hdl.handle.net/10986/16045 |
| work_keys_str_mv |
AT imfernandogabriel middleincometrapsaconceptualandempiricalsurvey AT rosenblattdavid middleincometrapsaconceptualandempiricalsurvey |
| _version_ |
1807160205046185984 |