Middle-Income Traps : A Conceptual and Empirical Survey

In recent years, the term "middle-income trap" has entered common parlance in the development policy community. The term itself often has not been precisely defined in the incipient literature. This paper discusses in more detail definitional issues on the so-called middle-income trap. The paper presents evidence in terms of both absolute and relative thresholds. To get a better understanding of whether the performance of the middle-income trap has been different from other income categories, the paper examines historical transition phases in the inter-country distribution of income based on previous work in the literature. Transition matrix analysis provides little support for the idea of a middle-income trap. Analysis of cross-country patterns of growth provides additional support for the conclusions in the paper, which closes with a general discussion of potential policy implications.

Bibliographic Details

Main Authors:	Im, Fernando Gabriel, Rosenblatt, David
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2013-09
Subjects:	ACCELERATORS, AVERAGE GROWTH, AVERAGE INCOME, AVERAGE INCOMES, BENCHMARK, BUSINESS CYCLE, CAPITA GROWTH, CAPITAL ACCUMULATION, CONDITIONAL CONVERGENCE, CONSTANT RETURNS, CONSTANT RETURNS TO SCALE, CONVERGENCE PROCESS, COUNTRY CLASSIFICATIONS, DATA SET, DEBT, DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DEVELOPMENT OUTCOMES, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY, DIFFERENCES IN INCOME, DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC GROWTH RATES, ECONOMIC HISTORY, ECONOMIC INDICATORS, ECONOMIC OUTCOMES, ECONOMIC POLICY, ECONOMIC PROGRESS, ECONOMIC STRUCTURE, ECONOMICS LITERATURE, EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE, EMPIRICAL LITERATURE, EMPIRICAL REGULARITY, EXCHANGE RATES, EXTERNALITY, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FINANCIAL MARKETS, FLUCTUATIONS, GDP, GDP PER CAPITA, GROWTH INCREASES, GROWTH MODELS, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, GROWTH VOLATILITY, HIGH INCOME, HIGH INCOME COUNTRIES, HIGH INCOME COUNTRY, HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, HUMAN CAPITAL, INCOME, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, INCOME DYNAMICS, INCOME GROUP, INCOME GROUPS, INCOME GROWTH, INCOME LEVELS, INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES, INFANT MORTALITY, INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, INVESTMENT CLIMATE, LEVEL OF INCOME, LIC, LIFE EXPECTANCY, LOW INCOME, LOW INCOME COUNTRIES, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY, MEASUREMENT ERROR, MEDIAN INCOME, MIDDLE CLASS, MIDDLE INCOME, MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES, MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRY, MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES, MORTALITY RATES, MULTIPLE EQUILIBRIA, NATIONAL INCOME, NEGATIVE SHOCKS, NEOCLASSICAL GROWTH, NEOCLASSICAL GROWTH MODEL, PER CAPITA GROWTH, PER CAPITA INCOME, PER CAPITA INCOMES, POLICY DETERMINANTS, POLICY DISCUSSIONS, POLICY IMPLICATIONS, POLICY RESEARCH, POSITIVE GROWTH, POVERTY MEASUREMENT, PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE, PURCHASING POWER, PURCHASING POWER PARITY, RATE OF GROWTH, REAL GDP, RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION, RELATIVE INCOME, RELATIVE INCOME DISTRIBUTION, RELATIVE INCOMES, SECONDARY ENROLLMENT, SKILLED LABOR, SOCIAL OUTCOMES, STAGNATION, STANDARD DEVIATION, STANDARD OF LIVING, TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY, VOLATILITY, WAGES, WELFARE ECONOMICS,
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/09/18220959/middle-income-traps-conceptual-empirical-survey https://hdl.handle.net/10986/16045
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