Stress-Testing Africa's Recent Growth and Poverty Performance

After an impressive acceleration in growth and poverty reduction since the mid-1990s, many African countries continue to register robust growth in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Will this growth persist, given the tepid recovery in developed countries, numerous weather shocks, and civil conflicts in Africa? This paper "stress tests" African economies. The findings indicate that Africa's long-term growth is fairly impervious to a prolonged recession in high-income countries. Growth is, however, much more sensitive to a disruption of capital flows to the region, and to internal shocks, such as civil conflict and drought, even if the latter follow historical patterns. The broad policy implication is that with proper domestic production conditions African countries can sustain robust long-term growth. Because of the economic dominance of the agriculture sector and the share of food in household budgets, countries will need to increase the resilience of agriculture and protect it from unfavorable climate change impacts, such as drought. As in the past, civil conflicts and violence will pose by far the greatest threat to Africa's performance.

Bibliographic Details

Main Authors:	Maliszewska, Maryla, Devarajan, Shantayanan, Osorio-Rodarte, Israel, Go, Delfin S., Timmer, Hans
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2013-06
Subjects:	ADVERSE EFFECTS, ADVERSE IMPACT, AGRICULTURAL GROWTH, AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS, AGRICULTURE, ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS, ANNUAL GROWTH, ANNUAL GROWTH RATE, AVERAGE GROWTH, AVERAGE INCOME, AVERAGE INCOMES, BASE YEAR, BENCHMARK, CAPITAL ACCUMULATION, CAPITAL FLIGHT, CAPITAL FLOWS, CAPITAL INCREASES, CAPITAL INFLOWS, CAPITAL STOCK, CAPITAL SURPLUSES, CIVIL WAR, CLIMATE, CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, COMMODITIES, COMMODITY, COMMODITY PRICES, COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE, CONFLICT, CONSUMERS, COUNTERFACTUAL, DAMAGES, DEBT, DEBT RELIEF, DEMOGRAPHIC, DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES, DENSITY FUNCTION, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DEVELOPMENT GOALS, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DEVELOPMENT REPORT, DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME, DIVERSIFICATION, DOMESTIC PRODUCTION, DROUGHT, ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC ANALYSIS, ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES, ECONOMIC COSTS, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC IMPACT, ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, ECONOMIC POLICIES, ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS, ELASTICITY, EMERGING ECONOMIES, EMERGING MARKET, EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES, EQUILIBRIUM, EXCHANGE RATE, EXCHANGE RATES, EXPORTS, EXTERNAL FINANCING, EXTERNAL SHOCKS, FACTOR PRICES, FAMINE, FINANCIAL CAPITAL, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT, FINANCIAL FLOW, FINANCIAL FLOWS, FINANCIAL INFLOWS, FOOD EXPENDITURES, FOOD IMPORTS, FOOD POLICY, FOOD PRICE, FOOD PRICES, FOOD PRODUCT, FOOD PRODUCTION, FOOD PRODUCTS, GDP, GDP PER CAPITA, GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS, GLOBAL ECONOMY, GLOBAL LEVEL, GLOBALIZATION, GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS, GROWTH MODEL, GROWTH MODELS, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, HIGH INCOME COUNTRIES, HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION, HOUSEHOLD SURVEY, HUMAN CAPITAL, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, IMPACT ANALYSIS, IMPACT ON POVERTY, INCOME, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, INCOME ELASTICITY, INCOME LEVELS, INCOMES, INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY, INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL, INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS, LABOR FORCE, LDCS, LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, LONG RUN, LONG-TERM GROWTH, LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES, LOWER DEMAND, LOWER PRICES, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY, MARGINAL COST, MARGINAL RETURNS, MICRO MODEL, MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES, NATIONAL ECONOMIES, NATURAL DISASTERS, NATURAL RESOURCES, NEGATIVE IMPACT, NET CAPITAL, OIL EXPORTERS, OIL PRICE, OIL PRICES, OIL PRODUCTION, OIL SECTOR, PER CAPITA GROWTH, PER CAPITA INCOME, POLICY RESEARCH, POOR, POPULOUS COUNTRIES, POVERTY IMPACT, POVERTY LINE, POVERTY LINES, POVERTY RATE, POVERTY REDUCTION, PRICE MOVEMENTS, PRICE OF OIL, PRIVATE INVESTMENT, PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE, PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, PUBLIC EXPENDITURES, REAL EXCHANGE RATES, REAL GDP, RECESSION, REDUCING POVERTY, REGIONAL TRADE, RELATIVE PRICES, RICH COUNTRIES, RURAL, RURAL AREAS, RURAL INCOME, RURAL POVERTY, SAVINGS, SCENARIOS, SIGNIFICANT IMPACT, STATE INTERVENTIONS, SUBSISTENCE AGRICULTURE, SUPPLY SHOCK, TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS, TOTAL CONSUMPTION, TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY, TRADE SHOCKS, UNEMPLOYMENT, WAGES, WORLD ECONOMY, computable general equilibrium models, CGE models,
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/06/17935395/stress-testing-africas-recent-growth-poverty-performance https://hdl.handle.net/10986/15876
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