Measuring Poverty Dynamics with Synthetic Panels Based on Cross-Sections

Panel data conventionally underpin the analysis of poverty mobility over time. However, such data are not readily available for most developing countries. Far more common are the “snap-shots” of welfare captured by cross-section surveys. This paper proposes a method to construct synthetic panel data from cross sections which can provide point estimates of poverty mobility. In contrast to traditional pseudo-panel methods that require multiple rounds of cross-sectional data to study poverty at the cohort level, the proposed method can be applied to settings with as few as two survey rounds and also permits investigation at the more disaggregated household level. The procedure is implemented using cross-section survey data from several countries, spanning different income levels and geographical regions. Estimates fall within the 95 percent confidence interval— or even one standard error in many cases—of those based on actual panel data. The method is not only restricted to studying poverty mobility but can also accommodate investigation of other welfare outcome dynamics.

Bibliographic Details

Main Authors:	Dang, Hai-Anh, Lanjouw, Peter
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2013-06
Subjects:	BOOTSTRAP, CALCULATION, CHRONIC POVERTY, COHORT ANALYSIS, COMPUTATION, CONFIDENCE INTERVALS, CONSUMPTION DISTRIBUTION, CORRELATION COEFFICIENT, COUNTING, COVARIANCE, CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION, DATA COLLECTION, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DEVELOPMENT ISSUES, DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH, DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS, DUMMY VARIABLES, DURATION ANALYSIS, ECONOMETRICS, EQUATIONS, ESCAPE POVERTY, ESTIMATORS, ETHNIC MINORITY, ETHNIC MINORITY GROUPS, FARM SECTOR, FEMALE-HEADED HOUSEHOLDS, FOOD CONSUMPTION, GEOGRAPHICAL REGIONS, HEADCOUNT POVERTY RATES, HEADCOUNT RATIO, HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS, HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION, HOUSEHOLD HEAD, HOUSEHOLD HEADS, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, HOUSEHOLD LEVEL, HOUSEHOLD LIVING STANDARDS, HOUSEHOLD SURVEY, HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS, HOUSEHOLD WELFARE, HOUSEHOLD WELFARE MEASURE, HOUSING, INCOME DYNAMICS, INCOME LEVELS, INDIVIDUAL LEVEL, INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES, INTEGRALS, LINEAR REGRESSION, LIVING STANDARDS, LIVING STANDARDS MEASUREMENT, LIVING STANDARDS SURVEY, LIVING STANDARDS SURVEYS, MATHEMATICAL PROGRAMMING, MATRICES, MATRIX, MEASUREMENT ERRORS, MEASUREMENT OF POVERTY, MEASURING POVERTY, METHODOLOGY, MISSING DATA, MODELING, NON-FOOD CONSUMPTION, OFFICIAL POVERTY, POLICY MAKERS, POLICY RESEARCH, POOR HOUSEHOLDS, POVERTY ALLEVIATION, POVERTY ASSESSMENT, POVERTY DYNAMICS, POVERTY ESTIMATES, POVERTY LINE, POVERTY LINES, POVERTY MAPPING, POVERTY MEASUREMENT, POVERTY MEASURES, POVERTY RATE, POVERTY RATES, POVERTY REDUCTION, POVERTY STATUS, PRECISION, PREDICTION, PREDICTIONS, PROBABILITIES, PROBABILITY, QUESTIONNAIRES, RANDOM VARIABLES, RESEARCH WORKING PAPERS, RURAL FARM, SAFETY NET, SAFETY NET PROGRAMS, SAMPLE SIZE, SAMPLE SURVEYS, SAMPLING ERRORS, SCENARIO, SCHOOLING, SIMULATION, SIMULATIONS, STANDARD DEVIATIONS, STANDARD ERRORS, STATA, STATISTICAL ANALYSIS, STATISTICAL INFERENCE, STATISTICAL QUALITY CONTROL, SURVEY DATA, SURVEY METHODOLOGY, TIME SERIES, UNDERSTANDING OF POVERTY, URBAN AREAS, URBAN HOUSEHOLDS, VULNERABILITY TO POVERTY, WELFARE MEASURE, chronic poverty, transitory poverty, synthetic panels, mobility,
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/06/17919450/measuring-poverty-dynamics-synthetic-panels-based-cross-sections https://hdl.handle.net/10986/15863
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