This paper examines the determinants of
"debt distress," which they define as periods in
which countries resort to exceptional finance in any of
three forms: (1) significant arrears on external debt, (2)
Paris Club rescheduling, and (3) nonconcessional
International Monetary Fund lending. Using probit
regressions, the authors find that three factors explain a
substantial fraction of the cross-country and time-series
variation in the incidence of debt distress: the debt
burden, the quality of policies and institutions, and
shocks. They show that these results are robust to a variety
of alternative specifications, and that their core
specifications have substantial out-of-sample predictive
power. The authors also explore the quantitative
implications of these results for the lending strategies of
official creditors.
Bibliographic Details
| Main Authors: |
Kraay, Aart,
Nehru, Vikram |
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| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper
biblioteca
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| Language: | English
en_US |
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| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, D.C.
2004-02
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| Subjects: | EXTERNAL DEBT,
DEBT DISTRESSED COUNTRIES,
DEBT STRATEGY,
BORROWING POLICIES,
PARIS CLUB,
LENDING,
HEAVILY INDEBTED POOR COUNTRIES,
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND BALANCE OF PAYMENTS,
BENCHMARK,
BORROWING,
CREDITOR,
CREDITORS,
CURRENCY UNITS,
DEBT,
DEBT BURDEN,
DEBT CRISES,
DEBT OUTSTANDING,
DEBT PROBLEMS,
DEBT REDUCTION,
DEBT RELIEF,
DEBT RESCHEDULING,
DEBT SECURITIES,
DEBT SERVICE,
DEBT SERVICE PAYMENTS,
DEBT SERVICING,
DEBT STOCKS,
DEBT SUSTAINABILITY,
DEBTOR,
DEBTOR COUNTRIES,
DEBTOR REPORTING,
DEBTS,
DEFLATORS,
DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE,
DEVELOPMENT BANKS,
EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES,
EMERGING MARKETS,
EXCHANGE RATE,
EXPORTS,
FACE VALUE,
FINANCIAL CRISIS,
FISCAL YEAR,
GROWTH RATE,
IMPORTANCE OF LIQUIDITY,
IMPORTS,
INCOME,
INCOME EFFECT,
INCOME INEQUALITY,
INFLATION,
INFLATION RATE,
INTEREST RATES,
INTERNATIONAL RESERVES,
LIQUIDITY,
LONG TERM DEBT,
MACROECONOMIC STABILITY,
PAYMENTS IMBALANCES,
PER CAPITA INCOME,
PRESENT VALUE,
PRESENT VALUE OF DEBT,
PROBABILITY OF DEFAULT,
PROPERTY RIGHTS,
PUBLIC SERVICES,
REAL GDP,
REGRESSION ANALYSIS,
REPAYMENT,
SECONDARY MARKETS,
SOLVENCY,
SOVEREIGN DEBT,
SOVEREIGN RISK,
SOVEREIGN RISK RATINGS,
TERMS OF TRADE,
TRADEOFFS, |
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2004/02/3911464/external-debt-sustainable
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/14314
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