South Asia Economic Focus, June 2011 : Food Inflation

This report focuses on the impact of policies and exogenous shocks on food inflation. It deals with four elements: 1) the pass-through of global food (and other commodity) prices, 2) macroeconomic policies, 3) market regulation and short-term supply shocks, and 4) long-term structural shifts and the terms of trade between agriculture and other sectors of the economy. This report examines food and overall inflation trends in South Asia, which is experiencing relatively high inflation, and is home to a large number of poor. There are many more poor people who are net buyers of food than there are those who benefit from higher prices of agricultural products even in the predominantly rural countries of South Asia. The report examines both short-term and longer-term drivers of rising food prices in the region, including developments in international commodity prices, domestic supply shocks, accommodative demand side policies, structural changes in demand patterns, and long-term agricultural productivity trends. The impact on poverty is examined, as is the region's preparedness for food price shocks. The priorities laid out in the Bank's post-crisis directions paper (2010) and the mandates given to the Bank by the G20 are to focus on food price volatility, agriculture and food security, and agricultural productivity. In line with these priorities, the report ends with some policy directions to manage the macroeconomic impact of food price inflation, and the potential spillover into generalized inflation, to manage the social impact of the food price hikes, and to hedge against risks associated with food price volatility. The report is organized as follows: section two discusses the anatomy and short- and longer-run drivers of food and overall inflation in South Asia. Section three discusses the impact of government policies affecting agricultural marketing, inputs and trade in South Asian countries. Section four presents an assessment of the impact of food price increases on poverty and an assessment of the preparedness of South Asian countries social protection schemes to cope with this impact. Section five concludes with some policy directions that could be pursued by South Asia to improve agricultural productivity and mitigate the impact of food price volatility on its population.

Bibliographic Details

Main Author:	World Bank
Language:	English en_US
Published:	Washington, DC 2011-06
Subjects:	ACCESS TO MARKETS, ADJUSTMENT MECHANISM, ADVANCED COUNTRIES, AGGREGATE DEMAND, AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES, AGRICULTURAL GROWTH, AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT, AGRICULTURAL POLICIES, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURE, AUDITS, BENCHMARK, BENCHMARK INTEREST RATE, BEVERAGES, BINDING CONSTRAINT, BIOMETRIC SYSTEMS, BROAD MONEY, CENTRAL BANK, CEREAL PRICE, CEREAL PRICES, CEREAL PRODUCTION, CEREALS, CLIENT COUNTRIES, COMMODITIES, COMMODITY, COMMODITY FUTURES, COMMODITY MARKETS, COMMODITY PRICE, COMMODITY PRICE BOOM, COMMODITY PRICES, CONSUMER BASKETS, CONSUMER PRICE, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION, CONSUMER PRICES, CONSUMERS, CONSUMPTION GROWTH, CONTAINERS, CONTROLLED PRICES, CORE INFLATION, CURRENCY, DAIRY, DEBT, DEMAND FOR FOOD, DEMAND MANAGEMENT, DEPRECIATION, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DIRECT MARKETING, DOMESTIC MARKET, DOMESTIC PRICES, DRUG INDUSTRY, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC RENTS, ECONOMIC SLOWDOWNS, EDIBLE OILS, EGG, EGGS, EMERGING MARKET, EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES, EMERGING-MARKET, ENERGY PRICES, EXCHANGE MARKET, EXCHANGE RATE, EXHIBITIONS, EXOGENOUS SHOCKS, EXPENDITURE, EXPENDITURES, EXPORTS, EXPOSURE, EXPOSURE TO RISKS, EXTERNAL TRADE, FARMERS MARKETS, FATS, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FISCAL BALANCE, FISCAL BALANCES, FISCAL CONSOLIDATION, FISCAL DEFICIT, FISCAL DEFICITS, FISCAL POLICIES, FOOD AVAILABILITY, FOOD CROPS, FOOD DEMAND, FOOD GRAINS, FOOD HANDLING, FOOD IMPORTS, FOOD INSECURITY, FOOD MARKETS, FOOD POLICIES, FOOD POLICY, FOOD POLICY RESEARCH, FOOD PRICE, FOOD PRICE INFLATION, FOOD PRICES, FOOD PRODUCERS, FOOD PRODUCTION, FOOD PRODUCTS, FOOD RATIONING, FOOD SECURITY, FOOD STOCKS, FOOD SUBSIDIES, FOOD SUPPLY, FRUIT, FRUITS, FUTURES, GDP, GLOBAL MARKETS, GOVERNMENT BUDGETS, GOVERNMENT DEBT, GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION, GOVERNMENT INVOLVEMENT, GRAINS, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, HIGH INFLATION, HONEY, IFPRI, IMBALANCES, INCOME GROWTH, INCOMES, INDUSTRIAL WORKERS, INFLATION EPISODE, INFLATION EXPECTATIONS, INFLATION RATE, INFLATION RATES, INTEREST RATES, INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE, INTERNATIONAL PRICES, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, ITC, LABOR MARKETS, LAW ENFORCEMENT, LIBERALIZATION, LIQUIDITY, M1, M3, MACROECONOMIC POLICIES, MACROECONOMIC POLICY, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY, MAIZE, MARKET CONDITIONS, MARKET ECONOMIES, MARKET INFRASTRUCTURE, MARKET PRICES, MARKET REGULATION, MARKET RISKS, MEAL, MEAT, MONETARY AGGREGATES, MONETARY CONDITIONS, MONETARY POLICY, MONEY SUPPLY, MORTGAGE, NATIONAL INCOME, OIL PRICE, OIL PRICES, OPEN ECONOMIES, OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS, OUTPUT GAPS, PALM OIL, PERISHABLE GOODS, POLITICAL CONSIDERATIONS, POTENTIAL OUTPUT, PRICE ADJUSTMENT, PRICE CAPS, PRICE CHANGE, PRICE DISTORTIONS, PRICE FLUCTUATION, PRICE HIKE, PRICE HIKES, PRICE INCREASE, PRICE INCREASES, PRICE INDEX, PRICE TRENDS, PRICE VOLATILITY, PRIVATE INVESTMENT, PRIVATE MARKETS, PRIVATE SECTOR INVESTMENT, PRODUCE MARKETS, PRODUCTION INCREASES, PRODUCTIVITY, PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, PROTEIN, PUBLIC DEBT, PUBLIC SPENDING, PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS, PULSES, PURCHASING, PURCHASING POWER, RAPID GROWTH, REAL INTEREST RATE, RED TAPE, REGISTRATION REQUIREMENTS, REMITTANCES, REMOTE REGIONS, RESERVE BANK, RESERVE REQUIREMENT, RETAIL, RETAIL PRICE, RETAIL PRICES, RICE, RICE MARKETING, RISK MANAGEMENT, RURAL INFRASTRUCTURE, SAFETY NET, SAFETY NETS, SALE, SALES, SHORT-TERM VOLATILITY, SIDE EFFECTS, SMALL ENTERPRISES, SOCIAL PROTECTION, SOYBEAN, SOYBEANS, SPICES, SPREAD, STAPLE FOODS, STATE BANK, STOCK MANAGEMENT, STORAGE CAPACITY, SUBSIDIZATION, SUBSTITUTES, SUBSTITUTION, SUGAR, SUPPLY CHAIN, SUPPLY RESPONSE, SUPPLY SHOCKS, SUPPLY SIDE, SURPLUS, TAX, TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY, TRADE AGREEMENT, TRADE POLICY, TRADE RELATIONS, TRADING PARTNER, TRANSPARENCY, TUBERS, VEGETABLES, VITAMINS, WAGE RATES, WAGES, WHEAT, WHOLESALE MARKETS,
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2011/06/16473126/south-asia-economic-focus-review-economic-developments-south-asian-countries https://hdl.handle.net/10986/12662
Tags:	Add Tag No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!