This paper considers the effects of
inaccurate real-time output data on fiscal management, both
with respect to budgetary planning and fiscal surveillance.
As newer and better information becomes available, output
data available in real time get revised and are likely to
conflict with final figures that are only released some
years later. Nevertheless, fiscal policy needs to be
inevitably based on real-time figures. The paper develops a
simple modeling framework to formalize these linkages and
combines it with a newly compiled dataset from the
International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook,
comprising final and real-time output data for 175
countries, over a period of 17 years. We simulate the
effects of output revisions on revisions of the overall
balance, the structural balance and debt accumulation. It
finds that output revisions may have substantial effects on
the ability of governments to correctly estimate the overall
balance and the structural fiscal balance in real time, and
that the effects may imply substantial debt accumulation.
Bibliographic Details
| Main Authors: |
Ley, Eduardo,
Misch, Florian |
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| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper
biblioteca
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| Language: | English
en_US |
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| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2013-01
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| Subjects: | ACCOUNTING,
ACCRUAL ACCOUNTING,
ACCUMULATION OF DEBT,
ADVANCED COUNTRIES,
CHECKS,
CONTINGENCY PLANS,
DATA ANALYSIS,
DEBT,
DEBT ACCUMULATION,
DEBT CRISES,
DEBT REDUCTION,
DEBT REDUCTIONS,
DEFICITS,
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES,
DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS,
DEVELOPMENT POLICY,
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY,
ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS,
ECONOMIC FORECASTS,
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK,
ECONOMIC RESEARCH,
ELASTICITY,
EURO,
EXPENDITURE,
EXPENDITURES,
EXPORTERS,
FACE VALUE,
FEDERAL RESERVE,
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK,
FINANCIAL CRISIS,
FINANCIAL SUPPORT,
FISCAL MANAGEMENT,
FISCAL PLANNING,
FISCAL POLICY,
FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY,
FORECASTS,
FUTURE RESEARCH,
GDP,
GOVERNMENT DEBT,
GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE,
GROWTH PROJECTIONS,
GROWTH RATE,
GROWTH RATES,
INCOME,
INCOME GROUP,
INCOME GROUPS,
INCOMES,
INFLATION,
INSTRUMENT,
INTERNATIONAL BANK,
LEVEL OF DEBT,
LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES,
MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES,
MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES,
MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES,
MIDDLE-INCOME ECONOMIES,
MODELING,
MONETARY FUND,
MONETARY POLICY,
MULTIPLIERS,
NATIONAL BANK,
NATURAL DISASTERS,
NATURAL RESOURCES,
OUTPUT,
OUTPUT GAP,
OUTPUT GAPS,
POLITICAL CONSIDERATIONS,
POLITICAL ECONOMY,
POTENTIAL OUTPUT,
PUBLIC DEBT,
PUBLIC FINANCE,
PUBLIC FINANCES,
PUBLIC SPENDING,
RELIABILITY,
RESEARCH WORKING PAPERS,
SCENARIO,
SIMULATION,
SIMULATIONS,
TAX,
TRACK RECORD,
UNEMPLOYMENT, |
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/01/17150429/real-time-macro-monitoring-fiscal-policy
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/12194
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