Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels

Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; among which 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 heat-related deaths can be attributed to population aging. Despite a projected decrease in cold-related mortality due to progressive warming alone, population aging will mostly counteract this trend, leading to a net increase in cold-related mortality by 0.1%-0.4% at 1.5-3 °C global warming. Our findings indicate that population aging constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the aging population.

Bibliographic Details

Main Authors:	Chen, Kai, de Schrijver, Evan, Sivaraj, Sidharth, Sera, Francesco, Scovronick, Noah, Jiang, Leiwen, Roye, Dominic, Lavigne, Eric, Kyselý, Jan, Urban, Aleš, Schneider, Alexandra, Huber, Veronika, Madureira, Joana, Mistry, Malcolm N., Cvijanovic, Ivana, Gasparrini, Antonio, Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M.
Other Authors:	European Commission
Format:	artículo biblioteca
Language:	English
Published:	Nature Publishing Group 2024-02-27
Subjects:	Mortality, Global warming levels, Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts,
Online Access:	http://hdl.handle.net/10261/349859 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100006280 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000780 https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/85186221798
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