Ozone-related acute excess mortality projected to increase in the absence of climate and air quality controls consistent with the Paris Agreement

Short-term exposure to ground-level ozone in cities is associated with increased mortality and is expected to worsen with climate and emission changes. However, no study has yet comprehensively assessed future ozone-related acute mortality across diverse geographic areas, various climate scenarios, and using CMIP6 multi-model ensembles, limiting our knowledge on future changes in global ozone-related acute mortality and our ability to design targeted health policies. Here, we combine CMIP6 simulations and epidemiological data from 406 cities in 20 countries or regions. We find that ozone-related deaths in 406 cities will increase by 45 to 6,200 deaths/year between 2010 and 2014 and between 2050 and 2054, with attributable fractions increasing in all climate scenarios (from 0.17% to 0.22% total deaths), except the single scenario consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement (declines from 0.17% to 0.15% total deaths). These findings stress the need for more stringent air quality regulations, as current standards in many countries are inadequate.

Bibliographic Details

Main Authors:	Domingo, Nina G.G., Fiore, Arlene M., Lamarque, Jean Francois, Kinney, Patrick L., Jiang, Leiwen, Gasparrini, Antonio, Breitner, Susanne, Lavigne, Eric, Madureira, Joana, Masselot, Pierre, Silva, Susana das Neves Pereira da, Sheng Ng, Chris Fook, Kyselý, Jan, Guo, Yuming, Tong, Shilu, Kan, Haidong, Urban, Aleš, Orru, Hans, Maasikmets, Marek, Pascal, Mathilde, Katsouyanni, Klea, Samoli, Evangelia, Scortichini, Matteo, Stafoggia, Massimo, Hashizume, Masahiro, Alahmad, Barrak, Diaz, Magali Hurtado, De la Cruz Valencia, César, Scovronick, Noah, Garland, Rebecca M., Kim, Ho, Lee, Whanhee, Tobias, Aurelio, Íñiguez, Carmen, Forsberg, Bertil, Åström, Christofer, Ragettli, Martina S., Guo, Yue Leon, Pan, Shih Chun, Colistro, Valentina, Bell, Michelle, Zanobetti, Antonella, Schwartz, Joel, Schneider, Alexandra, Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M., Chen, Kai
Other Authors:	Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72]
Format:	artículo biblioteca
Language:	English
Published:	Elsevier 2024-01-01
Subjects:	Short-term exposure, Acute excess mortality, Bias correction, Climate change, CMIP6, Ozone, Paris Agreement, Shared socioeconomic pathways, Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages, Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts,
Online Access:	http://hdl.handle.net/10261/345275 https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/85183166139
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