Public health benefits from livestock Rift Valley fever control: A simulation of two epidemics in Kenya

In controlling Rift Valley fever, public health sector optimises health benefits by considering cost-effective control options. We modelled cost-effectiveness of livestock RVF control from a public health perspective in Kenya. Analysis was limited to pastoral and agro-pastoral system high-risk areas, for a 10-year period incorporating two epidemics: 2006/2007 and a hypothetical one in 2014/2015. Four integrated strategies (baseline and alternatives), combined from three vaccination and two surveillance options, were compared. Baseline strategy included annual vaccination of 1.2–11% animals plus passive surveillance and monitoring of nine sentinel herds. Compared to the baseline, two alternatives assumed improved vaccination coverage. A herd dynamic RVF animal simulation model produced number of animals infected under each strategy. A second mathematical model implemented in R estimated number people who would be infected by the infected animals. The 2006/2007 RVF epidemic resulted in 3974 undiscounted, unweighted disability adjusted life years (DALYs). Improving vaccination coverage to 41–51% (2012) and 27–33% (2014) 3 years before the hypothetical 2014/2015 outbreak can avert close to 1200 DALYs. Improved vaccinations showed cost-effectiveness (CE) values of US$ 43–53 per DALY averted. The baseline practice is not cost-effective to the public health sector.

Bibliographic Details

Main Authors:	Kimani, T., Schelling, E., Bett, Bernard K., Ngigi, M., Randolph, Thomas F., Fuhrimann, S.
Format:	Journal Article biblioteca
Language:	English
Published:	Springer 2016-12
Subjects:	animal diseases, epidemiology, zoonoses, health,
Online Access:	https://hdl.handle.net/10568/78108 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10393-016-1192-y
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