Public health benefits from livestock Rift Valley fever control: A simulation of two epidemics in Kenya
In controlling Rift Valley fever, public health sector optimises health benefits by considering cost-effective control options. We modelled cost-effectiveness of livestock RVF control from a public health perspective in Kenya. Analysis was limited to pastoral and agro-pastoral system high-risk areas, for a 10-year period incorporating two epidemics: 2006/2007 and a hypothetical one in 2014/2015. Four integrated strategies (baseline and alternatives), combined from three vaccination and two surveillance options, were compared. Baseline strategy included annual vaccination of 1.2–11% animals plus passive surveillance and monitoring of nine sentinel herds. Compared to the baseline, two alternatives assumed improved vaccination coverage. A herd dynamic RVF animal simulation model produced number of animals infected under each strategy. A second mathematical model implemented in R estimated number people who would be infected by the infected animals. The 2006/2007 RVF epidemic resulted in 3974 undiscounted, unweighted disability adjusted life years (DALYs). Improving vaccination coverage to 41–51% (2012) and 27–33% (2014) 3 years before the hypothetical 2014/2015 outbreak can avert close to 1200 DALYs. Improved vaccinations showed cost-effectiveness (CE) values of US$ 43–53 per DALY averted. The baseline practice is not cost-effective to the public health sector.
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Journal Article biblioteca |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Springer
2016-12
|
| Subjects: | animal diseases, epidemiology, zoonoses, health, |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/78108 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10393-016-1192-y |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|