Probabilistic decision modelling to determine impacts on natural resource management and livelihood resilience in Marsabit County, Kenya
Decision makers, from the household to state level, are frequently faced with decisions that need to be made within a context of risks, uncertainties, multiple possible outcomes and stakeholder groups with varied interests. Business decision analysis methods offer a promising solution because they have been designed to aid businesses in making decisions on risky projects with limited research budgets. The decision analysis approach applied at ICRAF supports decision-making by evaluating business cases and simulating the impact of proposed investments using participatory and probabilistic tools to quantify the potential costs, benefits and associated risks of interventions while accounting for uncertainty in order to realistically forecast the range f plausible project outcomes. A decision analysis exercise was commissioned by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) under the “Integrated plan to enhance socioeconomic and ecological resilience of the wider Huri Hills and Shurr Plains landscapes, Marsabit Kenya” project.
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Working Paper biblioteca |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Agroforestry Centre
2018
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| Subjects: | natural resources, |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/102110 http://www.worldagroforestry.org/downloads/Publications/PDFS/WP18008.pdf https://doi.org/10.5716/WP18008.PDF |
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