Climate change increases threat to plant diversity in tropical forests of Central America and southern Mexico

Global biodiversity is negatively affected by anthropogenic climate change. As species distributions shift due to increasing temperatures and precipitation fluctuations, many species face the risk of extinction. In this study, we explore the expected trend for plant species distributions in Central America and southern Mexico under two alternative Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) portraying moderate (RCP4.5) and severe (RCP8.5) increases in greenhouse gas emissions, combined with two species dispersal assumptions (limited and unlimited), for the 2061–2080 climate forecast. Using an ensemble approach employing three techniques to generate species distribution models, we classified 1924 plant species from the region’s (sub)tropical forests according to IUCN Red List categories. To infer the spatial and taxonomic distribution of species’ vulnerability under each scenario, we calculated the proportion of species in a threat category (Vulnerable, Endangered, Critically Endangered) at a pixel resolution of 30 arc seconds and by family. Our results show a high proportion (58–67%) of threatened species among the four experimental scenarios, with the highest proportion under RCP8.5 and limited dispersal. Threatened species were concentrated in montane areas and avoided lowland areas where conditions are likely to be increasingly inhospitable. Annual precipitation and diurnal temperature range were the main drivers of species’ relative vulnerability. Our approach identifies strategic montane areas and taxa of conservation concern that merit urgent inclusion in management plans to improve climatic resilience in the Mesoamerican biodiversity hotspot. Such information is necessary to develop policies that prioritize vulnerable elements and mitigate threats to biodiversity under climate change.

Bibliographic Details

Main Authors:	Ortega, Miguel A. autor, Cayuela Delgado, Luis Doctor autor 15073, Griffith, Daniel M. Doctor autor 15241, Camacho Cruz, Angélica Maestra autora 15939, Coronado, Indiana M. autora, Del Castillo Sánchez, Rafael Felipe Doctor autor 15920, Figueroa Rangel, Blanca Lorena autora 13574, Fonseca, William autora, Garibaldi, Cristina autora, Kelly, Daniel L. autor, Letcher, Susan G. autora, Meave, Jorge A. autor 12600, Merino Martín, Luis autor, Meza, Víctor H. autor, Ochoa Gaona, Susana Doctora autora 72, Olvera Vargas, Miguel autor, Ramírez Marcial, Neptalí 1963- Doctor autor 5449, Tun Dzul, Fernando Jesús autor 12990, Valdéz Hernández, Mirna Doctora autora 12329, Velázquez, Eduardo autor, White, David A. autor, Williams Linera, Guadalupe autora 12724, Zahawi, Rakan A. autor, Muñoz, Jesús autor
Format:	Texto biblioteca
Language:	eng
Subjects:	Cambio climático, Fitogeografía, Especies vulnerables, Especies en peligro de extinción, Variables ambientales, Conservación de la diversidad biológica, Artfrosur,
Online Access:	https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0297840
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