Terms of trade, output, exports and imports: forecasting performance in models of Costa Rica and El Salvador
Simultaneous equation models of output, exports, imports and the export price, and single-equation models of GDP are estimated with very long (up to 65 years) time series. Out-of-sample forecasting performance is adopted as the principal criterion for accepting or rejecting regression results. This criterion is much more severe than conventional goodness-of-fit criteria, although this ultimately will depend on the arbitrarily-chosen length of the forecast period. Alternative dynamic specifications, including the error correction mechanism, are tested. Among those cases for which parameter constancy cannot be rejected for the 1980s, GDP does not depend on the terms of trade, Costa Rican exports do not depend on their price, (the price of Salvadorean but not Costa Rican) exports does depend on the export volume, and all these variables depend on us income
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Texto biblioteca |
| Language: | eng |
| Published: |
San José (Costa Rica) Jiménez y Tanzi
1988
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