The Black Swan and the owl of Minerva: Nassim Nicholas Taleb and the historians

The Black Swan and the owl of Minerva: Nassim Nicholas Taleb and the historians

In The Black Swan, Nassim Nicholas Taleb considers the importance in human affairs of "Black Swan" events of low probability but high impact. In the process he argues, in a confrontational manner, that historians' causal narratives are mainly invalid on a number of grounds but especially because the unpredictability of Black Swan (or other) events implies that subsequent narratives connecting events are merely "good-sounding stories". This article analyses Taleb's arguments against historical explanation and concludes that they are largely unsatisfactory. It questions Taleb's link between explanation and prediction in the context of history, arguing that Taleb's own concept of randomness as insufficient information implies greater knowledge after an event. However Taleb offers insights which can be of value to historians, and a more irenical relationship would be desirable.

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Main Author: Bennett,Bruce S.
Format: Digital revista
Language:English
Published: Historical Association of South Africa 2014
Online Access:http://www.scielo.org.za/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0018-229X2014000200022
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spelling oai:scielo:S0018-229X20140002000222015-01-09The Black Swan and the owl of Minerva: Nassim Nicholas Taleb and the historiansBennett,Bruce S. Black Swan chance randomness Taleb probability causation narrative explanation prediction In The Black Swan, Nassim Nicholas Taleb considers the importance in human affairs of "Black Swan" events of low probability but high impact. In the process he argues, in a confrontational manner, that historians' causal narratives are mainly invalid on a number of grounds but especially because the unpredictability of Black Swan (or other) events implies that subsequent narratives connecting events are merely "good-sounding stories". This article analyses Taleb's arguments against historical explanation and concludes that they are largely unsatisfactory. It questions Taleb's link between explanation and prediction in the context of history, arguing that Taleb's own concept of randomness as insufficient information implies greater knowledge after an event. However Taleb offers insights which can be of value to historians, and a more irenical relationship would be desirable.Historical Association of South AfricaHistoria v.59 n.2 20142014-11-01journal articletext/htmlhttp://www.scielo.org.za/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0018-229X2014000200022en
institution SCIELO
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language English
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author Bennett,Bruce S.
spellingShingle Bennett,Bruce S.
The Black Swan and the owl of Minerva: Nassim Nicholas Taleb and the historians
author_facet Bennett,Bruce S.
author_sort Bennett,Bruce S.
title The Black Swan and the owl of Minerva: Nassim Nicholas Taleb and the historians
title_short The Black Swan and the owl of Minerva: Nassim Nicholas Taleb and the historians
title_full The Black Swan and the owl of Minerva: Nassim Nicholas Taleb and the historians
title_fullStr The Black Swan and the owl of Minerva: Nassim Nicholas Taleb and the historians
title_full_unstemmed The Black Swan and the owl of Minerva: Nassim Nicholas Taleb and the historians
title_sort black swan and the owl of minerva: nassim nicholas taleb and the historians
description In The Black Swan, Nassim Nicholas Taleb considers the importance in human affairs of "Black Swan" events of low probability but high impact. In the process he argues, in a confrontational manner, that historians' causal narratives are mainly invalid on a number of grounds but especially because the unpredictability of Black Swan (or other) events implies that subsequent narratives connecting events are merely "good-sounding stories". This article analyses Taleb's arguments against historical explanation and concludes that they are largely unsatisfactory. It questions Taleb's link between explanation and prediction in the context of history, arguing that Taleb's own concept of randomness as insufficient information implies greater knowledge after an event. However Taleb offers insights which can be of value to historians, and a more irenical relationship would be desirable.
publisher Historical Association of South Africa
publishDate 2014
url http://www.scielo.org.za/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0018-229X2014000200022
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