Future Land-Use Changes and the Potential for Novelty in Ecosystems of the United States
Rapid global changes due to changing land use, climate, and non-native species are altering environmental conditions, resulting in more novel communities with unprecedented species combinations. Understanding how future anthropogenic changes may affect novelty in ecosystems is important to advance environmental management and ecological research in the Anthropocene. The main goal of this study was to understand how alternative scenarios of future land-use change may affect novelty in ecosystems throughout the conterminous United States. We used five spatially explicit scenarios of future land-use changes, reflecting different land-use policies and changes in agricultural markets, to quantify and map potential drivers of novelty. Our results showed large areas where future land-use changes may increase novelty in ecosystems. The major land-use changes known to increase novelty, including land abandonment and land-use expansion, were widespread in all scenarios (73 million to 95 million ha), especially in the eastern U.S. and along the West Coast. Our scenarios revealed that, at broad scales, future land-use changes will increase novelty in ecosystems, and that traditional conservation policies may have limited ability to prevent the process. In places such as the eastern U.S., conserving and maintaining historical conditions and associated biological diversity may become increasingly difficult due to future land-use changes and related ecological factors. Successful biodiversity conservation and environmental management in the Anthropocene will require novel conservation approaches to be relevant in areas with high levels of novelty in ecosystems.
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2015-12
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| Subjects: | Ecosistema, Utilización de la Tierra, Biodiversidad, Medio Ambiente, Cambio Climático, Ecosystems, Land Use, Biodiversity, Environment, Climate Change, Estados Unidos, |
| Online Access: | https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10021-015-9901-x https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/49363 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12123/3391 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-015-9901-x |
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oai:localhost:20.500.12123-33912018-09-18T17:05:12Z Future Land-Use Changes and the Potential for Novelty in Ecosystems of the United States Martinuzzi, Sebastián Gavier Pizarro, Gregorio Ignacio Lugo, Ariel E. Radeloff, Volker C. Ecosistema Utilización de la Tierra Biodiversidad Medio Ambiente Cambio Climático Ecosystems Land Use Biodiversity Environment Climate Change Estados Unidos Rapid global changes due to changing land use, climate, and non-native species are altering environmental conditions, resulting in more novel communities with unprecedented species combinations. Understanding how future anthropogenic changes may affect novelty in ecosystems is important to advance environmental management and ecological research in the Anthropocene. The main goal of this study was to understand how alternative scenarios of future land-use change may affect novelty in ecosystems throughout the conterminous United States. We used five spatially explicit scenarios of future land-use changes, reflecting different land-use policies and changes in agricultural markets, to quantify and map potential drivers of novelty. Our results showed large areas where future land-use changes may increase novelty in ecosystems. The major land-use changes known to increase novelty, including land abandonment and land-use expansion, were widespread in all scenarios (73 million to 95 million ha), especially in the eastern U.S. and along the West Coast. Our scenarios revealed that, at broad scales, future land-use changes will increase novelty in ecosystems, and that traditional conservation policies may have limited ability to prevent the process. In places such as the eastern U.S., conserving and maintaining historical conditions and associated biological diversity may become increasingly difficult due to future land-use changes and related ecological factors. Successful biodiversity conservation and environmental management in the Anthropocene will require novel conservation approaches to be relevant in areas with high levels of novelty in ecosystems. Instituto de Recursos Biológicos Fil: Martinuzzi, Sebastián. University of Wisconsin‐Madison. Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology. SILVIS Lab; Estados Unidos Fil: Gavier Pizarro, Gregorio Ignacio. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Instituto de Recursos Biológicos; Argentina Fil: Lugo, Ariel E. USDA Forest Service. International Institute of Tropical Forestry; Estados Unidos Fil: Radeloff, Volker C. University of Wisconsin‐Madison. Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology. SILVIS Lab; Estados Unidos 2018-09-18T17:03:43Z 2018-09-18T17:03:43Z 2015-12 info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10021-015-9901-x https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/49363 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12123/3391 1432-9840 1435-0629 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-015-9901-x eng info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess application/pdf Ecosystems 18 (8) : 1332–1342 (December 2015) |
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| countrycode |
AR |
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| language |
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| topic |
Ecosistema Utilización de la Tierra Biodiversidad Medio Ambiente Cambio Climático Ecosystems Land Use Biodiversity Environment Climate Change Estados Unidos Ecosistema Utilización de la Tierra Biodiversidad Medio Ambiente Cambio Climático Ecosystems Land Use Biodiversity Environment Climate Change Estados Unidos |
| spellingShingle |
Ecosistema Utilización de la Tierra Biodiversidad Medio Ambiente Cambio Climático Ecosystems Land Use Biodiversity Environment Climate Change Estados Unidos Ecosistema Utilización de la Tierra Biodiversidad Medio Ambiente Cambio Climático Ecosystems Land Use Biodiversity Environment Climate Change Estados Unidos Martinuzzi, Sebastián Gavier Pizarro, Gregorio Ignacio Lugo, Ariel E. Radeloff, Volker C. Future Land-Use Changes and the Potential for Novelty in Ecosystems of the United States |
| description |
Rapid global changes due to changing land use, climate, and non-native species are altering environmental conditions, resulting in more novel communities with unprecedented species combinations. Understanding how future anthropogenic changes may affect novelty in ecosystems is important to advance environmental management and ecological research in the Anthropocene. The main goal of this study was to understand how alternative scenarios of future land-use change may affect novelty in ecosystems throughout the conterminous United States. We used five spatially explicit scenarios of future land-use changes, reflecting different land-use policies and changes in agricultural markets, to quantify and map potential drivers of novelty. Our results showed large areas where future land-use changes may increase novelty in ecosystems. The major land-use changes known to increase novelty, including land abandonment and land-use expansion, were widespread in all scenarios (73 million to 95 million ha), especially in the eastern U.S. and along the West Coast. Our scenarios revealed that, at broad scales, future land-use changes will increase novelty in ecosystems, and that traditional conservation policies may have limited ability to prevent the process. In places such as the eastern U.S., conserving and maintaining historical conditions and associated biological diversity may become increasingly difficult due to future land-use changes and related ecological factors. Successful biodiversity conservation and environmental management in the Anthropocene will require novel conservation approaches to be relevant in areas with high levels of novelty in ecosystems. |
| format |
info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo |
| topic_facet |
Ecosistema Utilización de la Tierra Biodiversidad Medio Ambiente Cambio Climático Ecosystems Land Use Biodiversity Environment Climate Change Estados Unidos |
| author |
Martinuzzi, Sebastián Gavier Pizarro, Gregorio Ignacio Lugo, Ariel E. Radeloff, Volker C. |
| author_facet |
Martinuzzi, Sebastián Gavier Pizarro, Gregorio Ignacio Lugo, Ariel E. Radeloff, Volker C. |
| author_sort |
Martinuzzi, Sebastián |
| title |
Future Land-Use Changes and the Potential for Novelty in Ecosystems of the United States |
| title_short |
Future Land-Use Changes and the Potential for Novelty in Ecosystems of the United States |
| title_full |
Future Land-Use Changes and the Potential for Novelty in Ecosystems of the United States |
| title_fullStr |
Future Land-Use Changes and the Potential for Novelty in Ecosystems of the United States |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Future Land-Use Changes and the Potential for Novelty in Ecosystems of the United States |
| title_sort |
future land-use changes and the potential for novelty in ecosystems of the united states |
| publishDate |
2015-12 |
| url |
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10021-015-9901-x https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/49363 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12123/3391 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-015-9901-x |
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AT martinuzzisebastian futurelandusechangesandthepotentialfornoveltyinecosystemsoftheunitedstates AT gavierpizarrogregorioignacio futurelandusechangesandthepotentialfornoveltyinecosystemsoftheunitedstates AT lugoariele futurelandusechangesandthepotentialfornoveltyinecosystemsoftheunitedstates AT radeloffvolkerc futurelandusechangesandthepotentialfornoveltyinecosystemsoftheunitedstates |
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