When We're Sixty-Four
Latin American countries are in the midst of a demographic transition and, as a consequence, a population-aging process. Over the next few decades, the number of children will decline relative to the number of older adults. Population aging is the result of a slow but sustained reduction in mortality rates, given increases in life expectancy and fertility. These trends reflect welcome long-term improvements in welfare and in economic and social development. But this process also entails policy challenges: many public institutions—including education, health, and pension systems and labor market regulations—are designed for a different demographic context and will need to be adapted. When We’re Sixty-Four discusses public policies aimed at overcoming the two main challenges facing Latin American countries concerning the changing demographics. On one hand, older populations demand more fiscal resources for social services, such as health, long-term care, and pensions. On the other, population aging produces shifts in the proportion of the population that is working age, which may affect long-term economic growth. Aging societies risk losing dynamism, being exposed to higher dependency rates, and experiencing lower savings rates. Nonetheless, in the interim, Latin American countries have a demographic opportunity: a temporary decline in dependency rates creates a period in which the share of the working-age population, with its associated saving capacity, is at its highest levels. This constitutes a great opportunity in the short term because the higher savings may result in increases in capital endowment per worker and productivity. For that to happen, it is necessary to generate institutional, financial, and fiscal conditions that promote larger savings and investment, accelerating per capita economic growth in a sustainable way.
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Washington, DC: World Bank
2020-10-02
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| Subjects: | DEMOGRAPHICS, AGING, PUBLIC EXPENDITURE, HUMAN CAPITAL, PENSIONS, HEALTH CARE, LONG-TERM CARE, MORTALITY, MORBIDITY, POPULATION AGING, LABOR MARKET, |
| Online Access: | https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/317921601879563351/when-we-39-re-sixty-four-opportunities-and-challenges-for-public-policies-in-a-population-aging-context-in-latin-america https://hdl.handle.net/10986/34562 |
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DEMOGRAPHICS AGING PUBLIC EXPENDITURE HUMAN CAPITAL PENSIONS HEALTH CARE LONG-TERM CARE MORTALITY MORBIDITY POPULATION AGING LABOR MARKET DEMOGRAPHICS AGING PUBLIC EXPENDITURE HUMAN CAPITAL PENSIONS HEALTH CARE LONG-TERM CARE MORTALITY MORBIDITY POPULATION AGING LABOR MARKET |
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DEMOGRAPHICS AGING PUBLIC EXPENDITURE HUMAN CAPITAL PENSIONS HEALTH CARE LONG-TERM CARE MORTALITY MORBIDITY POPULATION AGING LABOR MARKET DEMOGRAPHICS AGING PUBLIC EXPENDITURE HUMAN CAPITAL PENSIONS HEALTH CARE LONG-TERM CARE MORTALITY MORBIDITY POPULATION AGING LABOR MARKET Rofman, Rafael Apella, Ignacio When We're Sixty-Four |
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Latin American countries are in the midst of a demographic transition and, as a consequence, a population-aging process. Over the next few decades, the number of children will decline relative to the number of older adults. Population aging is the result of a slow but sustained reduction in mortality rates, given increases in life expectancy and fertility. These trends reflect welcome long-term improvements in welfare and in economic and social development. But this process also entails policy challenges: many public institutions—including education, health, and pension systems and labor market regulations—are designed for a different demographic context and will need to be adapted. When We’re Sixty-Four discusses public policies aimed at overcoming the two main challenges facing Latin American countries concerning the changing demographics. On one hand, older populations demand more fiscal resources for social services, such as health, long-term care, and pensions. On the other, population aging produces shifts in the proportion of the population that is working age, which may affect long-term economic growth. Aging societies risk losing dynamism, being exposed to higher dependency rates, and experiencing lower savings rates. Nonetheless, in the interim, Latin American countries have a demographic opportunity: a temporary decline in dependency rates creates a period in which the share of the working-age population, with its associated saving capacity, is at its highest levels. This constitutes a great opportunity in the short term because the higher savings may result in increases in capital endowment per worker and productivity. For that to happen, it is necessary to generate institutional, financial, and fiscal conditions that promote larger savings and investment, accelerating per capita economic growth in a sustainable way. |
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Book |
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DEMOGRAPHICS AGING PUBLIC EXPENDITURE HUMAN CAPITAL PENSIONS HEALTH CARE LONG-TERM CARE MORTALITY MORBIDITY POPULATION AGING LABOR MARKET |
| author |
Rofman, Rafael Apella, Ignacio |
| author_facet |
Rofman, Rafael Apella, Ignacio |
| author_sort |
Rofman, Rafael |
| title |
When We're Sixty-Four |
| title_short |
When We're Sixty-Four |
| title_full |
When We're Sixty-Four |
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When We're Sixty-Four |
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When We're Sixty-Four |
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when we're sixty-four |
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Washington, DC: World Bank |
| publishDate |
2020-10-02 |
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https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/317921601879563351/when-we-39-re-sixty-four-opportunities-and-challenges-for-public-policies-in-a-population-aging-context-in-latin-america https://hdl.handle.net/10986/34562 |
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dig-okr-10986345622024-07-25T20:17:19Z When We're Sixty-Four Cuando tengamos sesenta y cuatro Opportunities and Challenges for Public Policies in a Population-Aging Context in Latin America Oportunidades y desafíos para la política pública en un contexto de envejecimiento poblacional en América Latina y el Caribe Rofman, Rafael Apella, Ignacio DEMOGRAPHICS AGING PUBLIC EXPENDITURE HUMAN CAPITAL PENSIONS HEALTH CARE LONG-TERM CARE MORTALITY MORBIDITY POPULATION AGING LABOR MARKET Latin American countries are in the midst of a demographic transition and, as a consequence, a population-aging process. Over the next few decades, the number of children will decline relative to the number of older adults. Population aging is the result of a slow but sustained reduction in mortality rates, given increases in life expectancy and fertility. These trends reflect welcome long-term improvements in welfare and in economic and social development. But this process also entails policy challenges: many public institutions—including education, health, and pension systems and labor market regulations—are designed for a different demographic context and will need to be adapted. When We’re Sixty-Four discusses public policies aimed at overcoming the two main challenges facing Latin American countries concerning the changing demographics. On one hand, older populations demand more fiscal resources for social services, such as health, long-term care, and pensions. On the other, population aging produces shifts in the proportion of the population that is working age, which may affect long-term economic growth. Aging societies risk losing dynamism, being exposed to higher dependency rates, and experiencing lower savings rates. Nonetheless, in the interim, Latin American countries have a demographic opportunity: a temporary decline in dependency rates creates a period in which the share of the working-age population, with its associated saving capacity, is at its highest levels. This constitutes a great opportunity in the short term because the higher savings may result in increases in capital endowment per worker and productivity. For that to happen, it is necessary to generate institutional, financial, and fiscal conditions that promote larger savings and investment, accelerating per capita economic growth in a sustainable way. Los países latinoamericanos están atravesando una transición demográfica y, como consecuencia, un proceso de envejecimiento de la población. Durante las próximas décadas, el número de niños disminuirá en comparación con el de adultos mayores. El envejecimiento de la población es el resultado de una reducción lenta pero sostenida de las tasas de mortalidad, debido al aumento de las tasas de esperanza de vida y fertilidad. Estas tendencias reflejan mejoras a largo plazo positivas en el bienestar y el desarrollo económico y social. Sin embargo, este proceso también implica desafíos en términos de políticas: muchas instituciones públicas —incluidos los sistemas de educación, salud y jubilaciones y pensiones, y las regulaciones laborales— están diseñadas para un contexto demográfico diferente y requerirán adaptación. En “Cuando tengamos sesenta y cuatro” se analizan políticas públicas que tienen por objeto superar los dos desafíos principales que enfrentan los países latinoamericanos en relación con los cambios demográficos. Por un lado, las poblaciones de mayor edad requieren más recursos fiscales para solventar los servicios sociales, tales como salud, atención de largo plazo y jubilaciones y pensiones. Por otro lado, el envejecimiento genera cambios en la proporción de la población en edad de trabajar, lo cual puede incidir en el crecimiento económico a largo plazo. Las sociedades en proceso de envejecimiento corren el riesgo de perder dinamismo y de presentar tasas de dependencia más altas y tasas de ahorro más bajas. Sin embargo, mientras tanto, los países latinoamericanos tienen una oportunidad demográfica: la reducción temporal de las tasas de dependencia crea un período en el cual la proporción de la población en edad de trabajar, y la capacidad de ahorro asociada, está en su nivel más alto. Esto constituye una gran oportunidad a corto plazo, ya que el aumento de los ahorros puede generar un incremento del capital por trabajador y de la productividad. Para que esto suceda, es necesario crear condiciones institucionales, financieras y fiscales que impulsen mayor ahorro e inversión, acelerando el crecimiento económico per cápita de manera sostenible. 2020-10-02T15:53:16Z 2020-10-02T15:53:16Z 2020-10-02 Book Livre Libro https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/317921601879563351/when-we-39-re-sixty-four-opportunities-and-challenges-for-public-policies-in-a-population-aging-context-in-latin-america 978-1-4648-1605-5 https://hdl.handle.net/10986/34562 International Development in Focus; CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank application/pdf application/pdf Washington, DC: World Bank |