Azerbaijan Demographic Change : Implications for Social Policy and Poverty

This note provides an overview of demographic changes in Azerbaijan and their policy implications. Azerbaijan's population is younger than the populations of most countries in the region. It is estimated that the population in Azerbaijan will increase from about 7.2 million in 1990 to 10.6 million by 2050. Nevertheless, Azerbaijan is beginning to experience the aging of its population, after having undergone a dramatic decline in fertility from about 5.5 children per woman in the 1950s, to just over two children per woman at present. This trend, combined with increasing life expectancy, underlies the growing rise in the percentage of elderly persons, and the eventual slowdown in the growth of the working-age population. This note provides an overview of key demographic changes unfolding in Azerbaijan, highlights their linkages with social spending, and draws policy implications for labor force participation, productivity, and ultimately for Azerbaijan's development and poverty reduction trajectory. The major driver of Azerbaijan's demographic shift is an aging population. The country has already undergone a dramatic decline in its fertility rate, which fell from about 5.5 children per woman in the 1950s to the present level of just over 2 children per woman. This trend, combined with increasing life expectancy, underlies the evolution in the age structure of Azerbaijan's population. The two main demographic changes evident from these trends are a rise in the percentage of elderly persons, and a slowdown and eventual shrinkage of the working-age population.

Bibliographic Details

Main Author:	World Bank
Language:	English
Published:	World Bank 2011-07-29
Subjects:	ACTIVE LABOR, ACTIVE LABOR MARKET, ACTIVE LABOR MARKET POLICIES, ACTIVE LABOR MARKET PROGRAMS, ADULT EDUCATION, AGE GROUP, AGED, AGING, AGING POPULATION, AGING POPULATIONS, AVERAGE WAGE, AVERAGE WAGE GROWTH, BASIC EDUCATION, BASIC PENSION, BENEFIT LEVELS, CANCER, CAPITAL INVESTMENTS, CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE, CAREGIVERS, CHILD CARE, CHILDREN PER WOMAN, CITIZENS, CONTRIBUTION RATE, DECLINE IN FERTILITY, DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE, DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES, DEMOGRAPHIC PRESSURES, DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION, DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS, DEPENDENCY RATIO, DEPENDENCY RATIOS, DRIVERS, EARLY CHILDHOOD, ECONOMIC GROWTH, EDUCATION SYSTEMS, EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT, ELDERLY, ELDERLY PERSONS, ELDERLY POPULATION, EQUALITY OF OPPORTUNITY, EQUITY ISSUES, FAMILY MEMBERS, FEMALE LABOR, FEMALE LABOR FORCE, FERTILITY, FERTILITY RATE, FERTILITY RATES, FEWER PEOPLE, FORMAL EDUCATION, FORMAL LABOR MARKET, FUTURE GROWTH, FUTURE PENSION, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROSS REPLACEMENT RATE, HEALTH CARE, HEALTH OUTCOMES, HEALTH SECTOR, HEALTH SYSTEM, HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT, HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, HOSPITAL, HUMAN CAPITAL, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, HUMAN RESOURCES, IMPACT OF POPULATION, IMPLICATIONS FOR POVERTY REDUCTION, INSURANCE, INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION, JOB CREATION, JOB SEARCH, JOB SEARCH ASSISTANCE, JOBS, LABOR FORCE, LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION, LABOR MARKET, LABOR PRODUCTIVITY, LABOR SUPPLY, LABOUR, LIFE EXPECTANCY, LIFE-LONG LEARNING, LIFELONG LEARNING, LIVING STANDARDS, LONG-TERM CARE, LOW FERTILITY, MATHEMATICS, MEDICAL CARE, MORTALITY, NUMBER OF WORKERS, NURSERY SCHOOLS, OCCUPATIONS, OLD AGE, OLD-AGE, OLD-AGE PENSION, OLD-AGE PENSIONS, OLDER AGE GROUPS, OLDER PEOPLE, PATIENT, PENSION, PENSION AGE, PENSION CONTRIBUTION, PENSION COST, PENSION INDICATORS, PENSION PAYMENTS, PENSION REFORM, PENSION SPENDING, PENSION SYSTEM, PENSION SYSTEMS, PENSION TRANSFERS, PENSIONER, PENSIONERS, PENSIONS, POLICY IMPLICATIONS, POLICY LEVER, POPULATION DIVISION, POPULATION ESTIMATES, POPULATION SHIFTS, POPULATION SIZE, PRIMARY EDUCATION, PRODUCTIVITY GAINS, QUALITY EDUCATION, REPLACEMENT RATES, RESPECT, RETIREES, RETIREMENT, RETIREMENT AGE, RETIREMENT AGES, RETIREMENT BEHAVIOR, RETIREMENT INCOME, RETIREMENT-INCOME, RURAL AREAS, RURAL INFRASTRUCTURE, SECONDARY EDUCATION, SERVICE DELIVERY, SEX, SEX RATIO, SEX RATIOS, SEX-SELECTIVE ABORTIONS, SIGNIFICANT POLICY, SKILLS DEVELOPMENT, SOCIAL AFFAIRS, SOCIAL ASSISTANCE, SOCIAL ISSUES, SOCIAL PENSIONS, SOCIAL POLICIES, SOCIAL POLICY, SOCIAL PROGRAMS, SOCIAL PROTECTION, SOCIAL TRANSFER, TAX RATES, TOTAL LABOR FORCE, UNEMPLOYED, UNEMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, WAGE GROWTH, WAGES, WORKER, WORKER PRODUCTIVITY, WORKFORCE, WORKING-AGE POPULATION, WORLD POPULATION, YOUNG ADULTS, YOUNG CHILD, YOUNG CHILDREN, YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT,
Online Access:	http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000386194_20111212232606 https://hdl.handle.net/10986/2802
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