On the Predictability of Growth
A country's productive structure and competitiveness are harbingers of growth. Growth is a dynamic process based on capabilities that are difficult to define and measure across countries. This paper uses a global measure of fitness (or complexity-weighted diversity of production) as a method to explore a country's relative growth potential. The analysis finds that there are two types of growth, predictable or laminar, and unpredictable. This classification is used to create a selection mechanism (the Selective Predictability Scheme), defining future growth trajectories for similar countries, and compares projected long-term, five-year forecasts with traditional methods used by the International Monetary Fund. The analysis finds that production structure is a good long-term predictor of growth, with prediction performance falling off for countries not yet in the laminar classification.
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| Format: | Working Paper biblioteca |
| Language: | English en_US |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2017-06
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| Subjects: | ECONOMIC PREDICTIONS, GROWTH PROJECTIONS, FORECASTING, PREDICTABILITY, POTENTIAL, COMPETITIVENESS, DIVERSIFICATION, |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/632611498503242103/On-the-predictability-of-growth https://hdl.handle.net/10986/27620 |
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dig-okr-10986276202024-08-09T08:48:58Z On the Predictability of Growth Cristelli, Matthieu Tacchella, Andrea Cader, Masud Roster, Kirstin Pietronero, Luciano ECONOMIC PREDICTIONS GROWTH PROJECTIONS FORECASTING PREDICTABILITY POTENTIAL COMPETITIVENESS DIVERSIFICATION A country's productive structure and competitiveness are harbingers of growth. Growth is a dynamic process based on capabilities that are difficult to define and measure across countries. This paper uses a global measure of fitness (or complexity-weighted diversity of production) as a method to explore a country's relative growth potential. The analysis finds that there are two types of growth, predictable or laminar, and unpredictable. This classification is used to create a selection mechanism (the Selective Predictability Scheme), defining future growth trajectories for similar countries, and compares projected long-term, five-year forecasts with traditional methods used by the International Monetary Fund. The analysis finds that production structure is a good long-term predictor of growth, with prediction performance falling off for countries not yet in the laminar classification. 2017-07-18T20:53:06Z 2017-07-18T20:53:06Z 2017-06 Working Paper Document de travail Documento de trabajo http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/632611498503242103/On-the-predictability-of-growth https://hdl.handle.net/10986/27620 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 8117 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank application/pdf text/plain World Bank, Washington, DC |
| institution |
Banco Mundial |
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| country |
Estados Unidos |
| countrycode |
US |
| component |
Bibliográfico |
| access |
En linea |
| databasecode |
dig-okr |
| tag |
biblioteca |
| region |
America del Norte |
| libraryname |
Biblioteca del Banco Mundial |
| language |
English en_US |
| topic |
ECONOMIC PREDICTIONS GROWTH PROJECTIONS FORECASTING PREDICTABILITY POTENTIAL COMPETITIVENESS DIVERSIFICATION ECONOMIC PREDICTIONS GROWTH PROJECTIONS FORECASTING PREDICTABILITY POTENTIAL COMPETITIVENESS DIVERSIFICATION |
| spellingShingle |
ECONOMIC PREDICTIONS GROWTH PROJECTIONS FORECASTING PREDICTABILITY POTENTIAL COMPETITIVENESS DIVERSIFICATION ECONOMIC PREDICTIONS GROWTH PROJECTIONS FORECASTING PREDICTABILITY POTENTIAL COMPETITIVENESS DIVERSIFICATION Cristelli, Matthieu Tacchella, Andrea Cader, Masud Roster, Kirstin Pietronero, Luciano On the Predictability of Growth |
| description |
A country's productive structure
and competitiveness are harbingers of growth. Growth is a
dynamic process based on capabilities that are difficult to
define and measure across countries. This paper uses a
global measure of fitness (or complexity-weighted diversity
of production) as a method to explore a country's
relative growth potential. The analysis finds that there are
two types of growth, predictable or laminar, and
unpredictable. This classification is used to create a
selection mechanism (the Selective Predictability Scheme),
defining future growth trajectories for similar countries,
and compares projected long-term, five-year forecasts with
traditional methods used by the International Monetary Fund.
The analysis finds that production structure is a good
long-term predictor of growth, with prediction performance
falling off for countries not yet in the laminar classification. |
| format |
Working Paper |
| topic_facet |
ECONOMIC PREDICTIONS GROWTH PROJECTIONS FORECASTING PREDICTABILITY POTENTIAL COMPETITIVENESS DIVERSIFICATION |
| author |
Cristelli, Matthieu Tacchella, Andrea Cader, Masud Roster, Kirstin Pietronero, Luciano |
| author_facet |
Cristelli, Matthieu Tacchella, Andrea Cader, Masud Roster, Kirstin Pietronero, Luciano |
| author_sort |
Cristelli, Matthieu |
| title |
On the Predictability of Growth |
| title_short |
On the Predictability of Growth |
| title_full |
On the Predictability of Growth |
| title_fullStr |
On the Predictability of Growth |
| title_full_unstemmed |
On the Predictability of Growth |
| title_sort |
on the predictability of growth |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2017-06 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/632611498503242103/On-the-predictability-of-growth https://hdl.handle.net/10986/27620 |
| work_keys_str_mv |
AT cristellimatthieu onthepredictabilityofgrowth AT tacchellaandrea onthepredictabilityofgrowth AT cadermasud onthepredictabilityofgrowth AT rosterkirstin onthepredictabilityofgrowth AT pietroneroluciano onthepredictabilityofgrowth |
| _version_ |
1807157346184462336 |