GCC Knowledge Note : Global Economic Trends

Global GDP growth remains lackluster, at an estimated 2.4 percent in 2015, down from 2.6 percent in 2014. This performance reflects sluggish world trade, particularly merchandise trade, and persistently weak commodity prices. These trends are contributing to subdued inflation in advanced economies and commodity-importing emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), while consumer prices are elevated or accelerating in many commodity-exporting EMDEs. Despite the headwinds to growth, financial conditions in EMDEs have improved somewhat since the start of 2016. Asset prices and capital flows have rebounded, while bond spreads have receded. EMDE exchange rates have rallied somewhat against the U.S. dollar after plunging during the past three years. Oil prices have risen from January lows, although they remain low versus historical levels due to bothsupply and demand factors. Economic performance in large emerging markets—including multiyear contractions in Brazil and Russia and continued rebalancing in China could set back any improvement in the pace of global growth in 2016. With their high dependence on the oil sector for government and export revenues, the prolonged period of low oil prices continues to have detrimental impacts on GCC economies. Budget rebalancing is underway, but further fiscal consolidation is likely in the medium term given that oil prices are expected to recover only gradually. Slowing growth in GCC countries stands to generate negative pillovers for oil-importing countries in the Middle East and North Africa through trade, investment, and remittances channels.

Bibliographic Details

Main Author:	Vorisek, Dana
Format:	Brief biblioteca
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2016
Subjects:	PRODUCER PRICE INDEX, BOND FUNDS, MONETARY POLICY, MERCHANDISE, UNCERTAINTIES, BUFFERS, BASIS POINTS, IMPORT GROWTH, OIL PRICE, ECONOMIC GROWTH, GOVERNMENT FINANCES, FISCAL DEFICITS, SALES, INTEREST, EMERGING MARKET BOND, ASSET PRICES, IMPORT, EMERGING ECONOMIES, EXCHANGE, GOVERNMENT REVENUES, SUPPLIES, BOND SPREADS, CONSUMER GOODS, LABOR FORCE, PRODUCER PRICES, ASSET, EXPORTERS, REVENUES, CDS, FISCAL POLICY, BONDS, DEVALUATION, MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS, PRICE, TAX, REFERENDUM, BOND YIELDS, RESERVE, INFLATION, INTERNATIONAL BANK, MERCHANDISE TRADE, RETAIL, EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES, BUDGET, LABOR MARKET, OIL-EXPORTING COUNTRIES, OIL PRICES, GLOBAL ECONOMY, RE-EXPORTS, CURRENCY, EXPORT GROWTH, ADVANCED ECONOMIES, FLOATING EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES, FINANCES, IMPORT DEMAND, EXCHANGE RATES, INTEREST RATES, SOVEREIGN BOND, EMERGING MARKET, CAPITAL OUTFLOWS, MARKETS, INFLATIONARY PRESSURE, SOVEREIGN RATING, DEFICITS, AGRICULTURAL PRICES, PRODUCT, RESERVES, REAL CONSUMPTION, EQUITIES, FINANCE, EXPORT REVENUES, MARKET ECONOMIES, FLOATING REGIMES, PRICE INFLATION, FLOATING EXCHANGE RATE, RATE OF INFLATION, EXPENDITURE, GOVERNMENT BUDGETS, EMERGING MARKETS, EQUITY, INFLATION EXPECTATIONS, CONSUMPTION, FEDERAL RESERVE, FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES, SURPLUSES, TOTAL EXPORTS, VOLATILITY, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, MARKET CONDITIONS, MARKET PRICES, VALUE, TRADE GROWTH, PRODUCER PRICE, BUDGETS, FIXED INVESTMENT, PURCHASING POWER, DEMAND, EQUITY FUNDS, CONSUMER PRICE, ECONOMY, CAPITAL FLOWS, ISSUANCE, CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION, CURRENCY DEVALUATION, FIXED EXCHANGE RATES, SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS, DEMAND INDICATORS, ASSETS, MARKET, DEFAULT, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, ENERGY PRICES, REAL EXPORTS, DOMESTIC DEMAND, CURRENCIES, FORWARD RATE, GOODS, INVESTOR, EQUITY MARKETS, FINANCIAL MARKET, STOCKS, OIL EXPORTERS, INVESTMENT, BOND, DOMESTIC CREDIT, PUBLIC FINANCES, EXCHANGE RATE FLEXIBILITY, SUPPLY, PURCHASING, CAPITAL INFLOWS, UNCERTAINTY, REVENUE, COMMODITY MARKETS, WORLD TRADE, CONSUMER PRICES, CAPITAL FLOW, SWAPS, EXCHANGE RATE, EXCHANGE CONTROLS, FOOD PRICES, REMITTANCES, PRICE INDEX, COMMODITY PRICES, CAPITAL ACCOUNT, PRICES, EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES, SWAP, ECONOMIES, CONSOLIDATION,
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/05/26404505/gcc-knowledge-note-global-economic-trends http://hdl.handle.net/10986/24421
Tags:	Add Tag No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!