Carbon Price Efficiency : Lock-in and Path Dependence in Urban Forms and Transport Infrastructure

This paper investigates the effect of carbon or gasoline taxes on commuting-related CO2 emissions in an urban context. To assess the impact of public transport on the efficiency of the tax, the paper investigates two exogenous scenarios using a dynamic urban model (NEDUM-2D) calibrated for the urban area of Paris: (i) a scenario with the current dense public transport infrastructure, and (ii) a scenario without. It is shown that the price elasticity of CO2 emissions is twice as high in the short run if public transport options exist. Reducing commuting-related emissions thus requires lower (and more acceptable) tax levels in the presence of dense public transportation. If the goal of a carbon or gasoline tax is to change behaviors and reduce energy consumption and CO2 emissions (not to raise revenues), then there is an incentive to increase the price elasticity through complementary policies such as public transport development. The emission elasticity also depends on the baseline scenario and is larger when population growth and income growth are high. In the longer run, elasticities are higher and similar in the scenarios with and without public transport, because of larger urban reconfiguration in the latter scenario. These results are policy relevant, especially for fast-growing cities in developing countries. Even for cities where emission reductions are not a priority today, there is an option value attached to a dense public transport network, since it makes it possible to reduce emissions at a lower cost in the future.

Bibliographic Details

Main Authors:	Avner, Paolo, Rentschler, Jun, Hallegatte, Stéphane
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2014-06
Subjects:	ABSOLUTE LEVEL OF EMISSIONS, ACCESSIBILITY, ACCIDENTS, AIR, AIR TRAVEL, ALTERNATIVE FORMS OF TRANSPORT, AUTOMOBILE, AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY, AUTOMOBILES, BUS, BUSES, CAR, CAR COST, CAR INDUSTRY, CAR TECHNOLOGIES, CAR TRANSPORT, CAR TRAVEL, CAR TRAVEL DEMAND, CARBON, CARBON BUDGET, CARBON DIOXIDE, CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS, CARBON EMISSION, CARBON EMISSIONS, CARBON PRICE, CARBON TAX, CARBON TAXES, CARRIERS, CARS, CLIMATE, CLIMATE CHANGE, CO2, COMBUSTION, COMMUTER MODE CHOICE, COMMUTERS, CONVERGENCE, COST OF TRANSPORT, COSTS OF TRANSPORT, CROSS ELASTICITY, CROSS-ELASTICITIES, DECREASE IN EMISSIONS, DEMAND ELASTICITIES, DEMAND ELASTICITY, DEMAND FOR AUTOMOBILE FUEL, DEMAND FOR ROAD TRANSPORT, DEMAND FOR TRANSPORT, DEMAND FOR TRANSPORTATION, DEMAND FOR TRANSPORTATION FUELS, DRIVERS, DRIVING, ELASTICITIES, ELASTICITIES OF ROAD TRAFFIC, ELASTICITIES OF TRAVEL DEMAND, ELASTICITY OF FUEL CONSUMPTION, ELASTICITY VALUES, ELECTRIC VEHICLES, ELECTRICITY, EMISSION, EMISSION LEVEL, EMISSION LEVELS, EMISSION REDUCTION, EMISSION REDUCTION TARGET, EMISSION REDUCTIONS, EMISSION-REDUCTION, EMISSIONS, EMISSIONS FROM TRANSPORT, EMISSIONS REDUCTION, ENERGY CONSUMPTION, ENERGY POLICY, ENVIRONMENTAL TAXES, EXTERNALITIES, FINANCE INFRASTRUCTURE, FINANCIAL BURDEN, FOSSIL FUEL, FOSSIL FUELS, FUEL, FUEL CONSUMPTION, FUEL ECONOMY, FUEL EFFICIENCY, FUEL EFFICIENT VEHICLES, FUEL PRICE, FUEL PRICE ELASTICITIES, FUEL PRICE ELASTICITY, FUEL PRICE INCREASE, FUEL PRICE INCREASES, FUEL PRICES, FUEL TAXATION, FUEL TAXES, FUEL-EFFICIENT VEHICLES, GASOLINE, GASOLINE CONSUMPTION, GASOLINE PRICE, GASOLINE PRICES, GASOLINE TAX, GASOLINE TAXES, GHG, GLOBAL WARMING, GREENHOUSE, GREENHOUSE GAS, GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS, HYBRID CARS, IMPACT OF ROAD PRICING, INCOME, INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT, INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT, INFRASTRUCTURE POLICIES, INFRASTRUCTURES, INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINES, JOURNEY, LAND USE, LOCAL AIR POLLUTION, LONG RUN ELASTICITIES, LONG-TERM ELASTICITIES, LONG-TERM ELASTICITY, LOW-CARBON, MARGINAL ABATEMENT, MARGINAL ABATEMENT COST, MEANS OF TRANSPORT, MOBILITY, MODAL CHOICE, MODAL SHARE, MODAL SHIFT, MODAL SPLIT, MODE OF TRANSPORT, NEGATIVE IMPACT, NEIGHBORHOODS, NOISE, NUCLEAR ENERGY, PASSENGERS, POPULATION DENSITIES, POPULATION DENSITY, POPULATION GROWTH, PRICE CHANGES, PRICE ELASTICITIES, PRICE ELASTICITY, PRICE ELASTICITY OF DEMAND, PRICE ELASTICITY OF GASOLINE, PRICE INCENTIVES, PRICE OF FUEL, PRICE OF GASOLINE, PRIVATE MOTOR VEHICLE, PRIVATE VEHICLES, PUBLIC TRANSIT, PUBLIC TRANSIT NETWORK, PUBLIC TRANSPORT, PUBLIC TRANSPORT ALTERNATIVES, PUBLIC TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE, PUBLIC TRANSPORT INVESTMENTS, PUBLIC TRANSPORT MODES, PUBLIC TRANSPORT NETWORK, PUBLIC TRANSPORT NETWORKS, PUBLIC TRANSPORT PROVISION, PUBLIC TRANSPORT SERVICE, PUBLIC TRANSPORT SYSTEM, PUBLIC TRANSPORT SYSTEMS, PUBLIC TRANSPORT USAGE, PUBLIC TRANSPORT USE, PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION, RAIL, RAIL TRANSPORT, REBATES, RISK MANAGEMENT, ROAD, ROAD CONGESTION, ROAD TRAFFIC, ROAD TRANSPORT, ROADS, ROUTE, SCENARIOS, SOCIAL COST OF CARBON, SPRAWL, TAX, TAX REVENUE, TRAFFIC DEMAND, TRAFFIC ELASTICITIES, TRAFFIC PSYCHOLOGY, TRANSIT INFRASTRUCTURE, TRANSIT SYSTEM, TRANSIT USAGE, TRANSIT USE, TRANSPORT, TRANSPORT CHOICES, TRANSPORT COSTS, TRANSPORT DEMAND, TRANSPORT ECONOMICS, TRANSPORT ELASTICITIES, TRANSPORT EMISSIONS, TRANSPORT IMPACTS, TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE, TRANSPORT MODE, TRANSPORT POLICIES, TRANSPORT POLICY, TRANSPORT PRICE, TRANSPORT SECTOR, TRANSPORT SUBSIDIES, TRANSPORTATION COSTS, TRANSPORTATION ECONOMICS, TRANSPORTATION EMISSIONS, TRANSPORTATION NETWORKS, TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH, TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, TRANSPORTS, TRAVEL BEHAVIOR, TRAVEL DISTANCES, TRAVEL MODE, TRAVEL OPTIONS, TRIP, TRIPS, URBAN SPRAWL, URBAN SYSTEMS, URBAN TRANSPORTATION, VEHICLE, VEHICLE FLEET, VEHICLES, WALKING,
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/06/19705748/carbon-price-efficiency-lock-in-path-dependence-urban-forms-transport-infrastructure http://hdl.handle.net/10986/18829
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