Climate change impact and variability on cereal productivity among smallholder farmers under future production systems in west Africa
Agriculture in West Africa is constrained by several yield-limiting factors, such as poor soil fertility, erratic rainfall distributions and low input systems. Projected changes in climate, thus, pose a threat since crop production is mainly rain-fed. The impact of climate change and its variation on the productivity of cereals in smallholder settings under future production systems in Navrongo, Ghana and Nioro du Rip, Senegal was assessed in this study. Data on management practices obtained from household surveys and projected agricultural development pathways (through stakeholder engagements), soil data, weather data (historical: 1980–2009 and five General Circulation Models; mid-century time slice 2040–2069 for two Representative Concentration Pathways; 4.5 and 8.5) were used for the impact assessment, employing a crop simulation model. Ensemble maize yield changes under the sustainable agricultural development pathway (SDP) were −13 and −16%, while under the unsustainable development pathway (USDP), yield changes were −19 and −20% in Navrongo and Nioro du Rip, respectively. The impact on sorghum and millet were lower than that on maize. Variations in climate change impact among smallholders were high with relative standard deviations (RSD) of between 14% and 60% across the cereals with variability being higher under the USDP, except for millet. Agricultural production systems with higher intensification but with less emphasis on soil conservation (USDP) will be more negatively impacted by climate change compared to relatively sustainable ones (SDP).
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Format: | article biblioteca |
Language: | eng |
Subjects: | P40 - Météorologie et climatologie, F01 - Culture des plantes, productivité agricole, impact économique, changement climatique, rendement des cultures, plante céréalière, système de production, petit agriculteur, petite exploitation agricole, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_9fe82378, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_547fe3a0, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_10176, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_25512, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_a175b273, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_14343, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7113, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8355, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3253, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6970, |
Online Access: | http://agritrop.cirad.fr/598266/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/598266/1/sustainability-13-05191-v2.pdf |
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dig-cirad-fr-5982662024-01-29T03:31:30Z http://agritrop.cirad.fr/598266/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/598266/ Climate change impact and variability on cereal productivity among smallholder farmers under future production systems in west Africa. MacCarthy Dilys Sefakor, Adam Myriam, Freduah Bright Salah, Fosu-Mensah Benedicta Yayra, Ampim Peter A. Y., Ly Mouhamed, Traoré Pierre Sibiry, Adiku Samuel G.K.. 2021. Sustainability, 13 (9):5191, 22 p.https://doi.org/10.3390/su13095191 <https://doi.org/10.3390/su13095191> Climate change impact and variability on cereal productivity among smallholder farmers under future production systems in west Africa MacCarthy, Dilys Sefakor Adam, Myriam Freduah, Bright Salah Fosu-Mensah, Benedicta Yayra Ampim, Peter A. Y. Ly, Mouhamed Traoré, Pierre Sibiry Adiku, Samuel G.K. eng 2021 Sustainability P40 - Météorologie et climatologie F01 - Culture des plantes productivité agricole impact économique changement climatique rendement des cultures plante céréalière système de production petit agriculteur petite exploitation agricole http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_9fe82378 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_547fe3a0 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_10176 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_25512 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_a175b273 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_14343 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7113 Afrique occidentale Ghana Sénégal http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8355 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3253 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6970 Agriculture in West Africa is constrained by several yield-limiting factors, such as poor soil fertility, erratic rainfall distributions and low input systems. Projected changes in climate, thus, pose a threat since crop production is mainly rain-fed. The impact of climate change and its variation on the productivity of cereals in smallholder settings under future production systems in Navrongo, Ghana and Nioro du Rip, Senegal was assessed in this study. Data on management practices obtained from household surveys and projected agricultural development pathways (through stakeholder engagements), soil data, weather data (historical: 1980–2009 and five General Circulation Models; mid-century time slice 2040–2069 for two Representative Concentration Pathways; 4.5 and 8.5) were used for the impact assessment, employing a crop simulation model. Ensemble maize yield changes under the sustainable agricultural development pathway (SDP) were −13 and −16%, while under the unsustainable development pathway (USDP), yield changes were −19 and −20% in Navrongo and Nioro du Rip, respectively. The impact on sorghum and millet were lower than that on maize. Variations in climate change impact among smallholders were high with relative standard deviations (RSD) of between 14% and 60% across the cereals with variability being higher under the USDP, except for millet. Agricultural production systems with higher intensification but with less emphasis on soil conservation (USDP) will be more negatively impacted by climate change compared to relatively sustainable ones (SDP). article info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal Article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://agritrop.cirad.fr/598266/1/sustainability-13-05191-v2.pdf text cc_by info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ https://doi.org/10.3390/su13095191 10.3390/su13095191 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.3390/su13095191 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/purl/https://doi.org/10.3390/su13095191 |
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P40 - Météorologie et climatologie F01 - Culture des plantes productivité agricole impact économique changement climatique rendement des cultures plante céréalière système de production petit agriculteur petite exploitation agricole http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_9fe82378 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_547fe3a0 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_10176 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_25512 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_a175b273 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_14343 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7113 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8355 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3253 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6970 P40 - Météorologie et climatologie F01 - Culture des plantes productivité agricole impact économique changement climatique rendement des cultures plante céréalière système de production petit agriculteur petite exploitation agricole http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_9fe82378 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_547fe3a0 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_10176 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_25512 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_a175b273 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_14343 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7113 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8355 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3253 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6970 |
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P40 - Météorologie et climatologie F01 - Culture des plantes productivité agricole impact économique changement climatique rendement des cultures plante céréalière système de production petit agriculteur petite exploitation agricole http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_9fe82378 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_547fe3a0 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_10176 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_25512 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_a175b273 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_14343 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7113 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8355 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3253 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6970 P40 - Météorologie et climatologie F01 - Culture des plantes productivité agricole impact économique changement climatique rendement des cultures plante céréalière système de production petit agriculteur petite exploitation agricole http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_9fe82378 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_547fe3a0 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_10176 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_25512 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_a175b273 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_14343 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7113 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8355 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3253 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6970 MacCarthy, Dilys Sefakor Adam, Myriam Freduah, Bright Salah Fosu-Mensah, Benedicta Yayra Ampim, Peter A. Y. Ly, Mouhamed Traoré, Pierre Sibiry Adiku, Samuel G.K. Climate change impact and variability on cereal productivity among smallholder farmers under future production systems in west Africa |
description |
Agriculture in West Africa is constrained by several yield-limiting factors, such as poor soil fertility, erratic rainfall distributions and low input systems. Projected changes in climate, thus, pose a threat since crop production is mainly rain-fed. The impact of climate change and its variation on the productivity of cereals in smallholder settings under future production systems in Navrongo, Ghana and Nioro du Rip, Senegal was assessed in this study. Data on management practices obtained from household surveys and projected agricultural development pathways (through stakeholder engagements), soil data, weather data (historical: 1980–2009 and five General Circulation Models; mid-century time slice 2040–2069 for two Representative Concentration Pathways; 4.5 and 8.5) were used for the impact assessment, employing a crop simulation model. Ensemble maize yield changes under the sustainable agricultural development pathway (SDP) were −13 and −16%, while under the unsustainable development pathway (USDP), yield changes were −19 and −20% in Navrongo and Nioro du Rip, respectively. The impact on sorghum and millet were lower than that on maize. Variations in climate change impact among smallholders were high with relative standard deviations (RSD) of between 14% and 60% across the cereals with variability being higher under the USDP, except for millet. Agricultural production systems with higher intensification but with less emphasis on soil conservation (USDP) will be more negatively impacted by climate change compared to relatively sustainable ones (SDP). |
format |
article |
topic_facet |
P40 - Météorologie et climatologie F01 - Culture des plantes productivité agricole impact économique changement climatique rendement des cultures plante céréalière système de production petit agriculteur petite exploitation agricole http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_9fe82378 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_547fe3a0 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_10176 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_25512 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_a175b273 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_14343 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7113 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8355 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3253 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6970 |
author |
MacCarthy, Dilys Sefakor Adam, Myriam Freduah, Bright Salah Fosu-Mensah, Benedicta Yayra Ampim, Peter A. Y. Ly, Mouhamed Traoré, Pierre Sibiry Adiku, Samuel G.K. |
author_facet |
MacCarthy, Dilys Sefakor Adam, Myriam Freduah, Bright Salah Fosu-Mensah, Benedicta Yayra Ampim, Peter A. Y. Ly, Mouhamed Traoré, Pierre Sibiry Adiku, Samuel G.K. |
author_sort |
MacCarthy, Dilys Sefakor |
title |
Climate change impact and variability on cereal productivity among smallholder farmers under future production systems in west Africa |
title_short |
Climate change impact and variability on cereal productivity among smallholder farmers under future production systems in west Africa |
title_full |
Climate change impact and variability on cereal productivity among smallholder farmers under future production systems in west Africa |
title_fullStr |
Climate change impact and variability on cereal productivity among smallholder farmers under future production systems in west Africa |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate change impact and variability on cereal productivity among smallholder farmers under future production systems in west Africa |
title_sort |
climate change impact and variability on cereal productivity among smallholder farmers under future production systems in west africa |
url |
http://agritrop.cirad.fr/598266/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/598266/1/sustainability-13-05191-v2.pdf |
work_keys_str_mv |
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