Uncertainty in establishing forest reference levels and predicting future forest-based carbon stocks for REDD+
Forest reference levels (FRLs) provide a benchmark for assessing reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+), and they are central to demonstrate additionality of REDD+. Attaining realistic FRLs, however, is challenging, especially in complex mosaic landscapes. We established FRLs in northern Laos for different reference periods and tested them against actual carbon stock changes. Annual time series of Landsat satellite images were used to capture the subtle changes in carbon stocks in complex landscapes characterized by shifting cultivation. We found that FRLs differ considerably depending on the reference period chosen. Abrupt land-use changes occurred when hybrid maize replaced traditional shifting cultivation and forests, and this invalidated carbon stock trends that would have been predicted had the FRL been projected into the future. We conclude that demonstrating additionality of REDD+ in fast developing areas is difficult and that payment systems rewarding potential emission reductions against hypothetical extrapolation of FRLs are unlikely to be a cost-effective strategy.
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dig-cirad-fr-5863822024-01-29T00:42:13Z http://agritrop.cirad.fr/586382/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/586382/ Uncertainty in establishing forest reference levels and predicting future forest-based carbon stocks for REDD+. Mertz Ole, Grogan Kenneth, Pflugmacher Dirk, Lestrelin Guillaume, Castella Jean-Christophe, Vongvisouk Thoumthone, Hett Cornelia, Fensholt Rasmus, Sun Zhanli, Berry Nicholas J., Müller Daniel. 2018. Journal of Land Use Science, 13 (1-2) : 1-15.https://doi.org/10.1080/1747423X.2017.1410242 <https://doi.org/10.1080/1747423X.2017.1410242> Uncertainty in establishing forest reference levels and predicting future forest-based carbon stocks for REDD+ Mertz, Ole Grogan, Kenneth Pflugmacher, Dirk Lestrelin, Guillaume Castella, Jean-Christophe Vongvisouk, Thoumthone Hett, Cornelia Fensholt, Rasmus Sun, Zhanli Berry, Nicholas J. Müller, Daniel eng 2018 Journal of Land Use Science K01 - Foresterie - Considérations générales P33 - Chimie et physique du sol P01 - Conservation de la nature et ressources foncières forêt forêt tropicale humide déboisement culture itinérante cycle du carbone séquestration du carbone services écosystémiques montant compensatoire financement protection de la forêt Landsat imagerie cartographie de l'occupation du sol cartographie des fonctions de la forêt paysage http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3062 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7976 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_15590 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7038 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_17299 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_331583 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1348040570280 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_28654 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_29785 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_28075 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_36766 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_36760 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_9000094 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1374847637217 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4185 République démocratique populaire lao http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_12076 Forest reference levels (FRLs) provide a benchmark for assessing reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+), and they are central to demonstrate additionality of REDD+. Attaining realistic FRLs, however, is challenging, especially in complex mosaic landscapes. We established FRLs in northern Laos for different reference periods and tested them against actual carbon stock changes. Annual time series of Landsat satellite images were used to capture the subtle changes in carbon stocks in complex landscapes characterized by shifting cultivation. We found that FRLs differ considerably depending on the reference period chosen. Abrupt land-use changes occurred when hybrid maize replaced traditional shifting cultivation and forests, and this invalidated carbon stock trends that would have been predicted had the FRL been projected into the future. We conclude that demonstrating additionality of REDD+ in fast developing areas is difficult and that payment systems rewarding potential emission reductions against hypothetical extrapolation of FRLs are unlikely to be a cost-effective strategy. article info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal Article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://agritrop.cirad.fr/586382/7/Uncertainty%20in%20establishing%20forest%20reference%20levels%20and%20predicting%20future%20forest%20based%20carbon%20stocks%20for%20REDD.pdf text Cirad license info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess https://agritrop.cirad.fr/mention_legale.html https://doi.org/10.1080/1747423X.2017.1410242 10.1080/1747423X.2017.1410242 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1080/1747423X.2017.1410242 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/purl/https://doi.org/10.1080/1747423X.2017.1410242 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/265286//(EU) Impacts of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation and Enhancing Carbon Stocks/I-REDD+ |
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K01 - Foresterie - Considérations générales P33 - Chimie et physique du sol P01 - Conservation de la nature et ressources foncières forêt forêt tropicale humide déboisement culture itinérante cycle du carbone séquestration du carbone services écosystémiques montant compensatoire financement protection de la forêt Landsat imagerie cartographie de l'occupation du sol cartographie des fonctions de la forêt paysage http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3062 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7976 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_15590 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7038 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_17299 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_331583 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1348040570280 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_28654 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_29785 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_28075 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_36766 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_36760 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_9000094 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1374847637217 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4185 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_12076 K01 - Foresterie - Considérations générales P33 - Chimie et physique du sol P01 - Conservation de la nature et ressources foncières forêt forêt tropicale humide déboisement culture itinérante cycle du carbone séquestration du carbone services écosystémiques montant compensatoire financement protection de la forêt Landsat imagerie cartographie de l'occupation du sol cartographie des fonctions de la forêt paysage http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3062 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7976 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_15590 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7038 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_17299 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_331583 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1348040570280 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_28654 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_29785 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_28075 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_36766 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_36760 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_9000094 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1374847637217 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4185 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_12076 |
spellingShingle |
K01 - Foresterie - Considérations générales P33 - Chimie et physique du sol P01 - Conservation de la nature et ressources foncières forêt forêt tropicale humide déboisement culture itinérante cycle du carbone séquestration du carbone services écosystémiques montant compensatoire financement protection de la forêt Landsat imagerie cartographie de l'occupation du sol cartographie des fonctions de la forêt paysage http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3062 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7976 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_15590 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7038 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_17299 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_331583 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1348040570280 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_28654 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_29785 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_28075 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_36766 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_36760 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_9000094 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1374847637217 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4185 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_12076 K01 - Foresterie - Considérations générales P33 - Chimie et physique du sol P01 - Conservation de la nature et ressources foncières forêt forêt tropicale humide déboisement culture itinérante cycle du carbone séquestration du carbone services écosystémiques montant compensatoire financement protection de la forêt Landsat imagerie cartographie de l'occupation du sol cartographie des fonctions de la forêt paysage http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3062 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7976 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_15590 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7038 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_17299 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_331583 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1348040570280 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_28654 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_29785 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_28075 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_36766 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_36760 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_9000094 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1374847637217 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4185 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_12076 Mertz, Ole Grogan, Kenneth Pflugmacher, Dirk Lestrelin, Guillaume Castella, Jean-Christophe Vongvisouk, Thoumthone Hett, Cornelia Fensholt, Rasmus Sun, Zhanli Berry, Nicholas J. Müller, Daniel Uncertainty in establishing forest reference levels and predicting future forest-based carbon stocks for REDD+ |
description |
Forest reference levels (FRLs) provide a benchmark for assessing reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+), and they are central to demonstrate additionality of REDD+. Attaining realistic FRLs, however, is challenging, especially in complex mosaic landscapes. We established FRLs in northern Laos for different reference periods and tested them against actual carbon stock changes. Annual time series of Landsat satellite images were used to capture the subtle changes in carbon stocks in complex landscapes characterized by shifting cultivation. We found that FRLs differ considerably depending on the reference period chosen. Abrupt land-use changes occurred when hybrid maize replaced traditional shifting cultivation and forests, and this invalidated carbon stock trends that would have been predicted had the FRL been projected into the future. We conclude that demonstrating additionality of REDD+ in fast developing areas is difficult and that payment systems rewarding potential emission reductions against hypothetical extrapolation of FRLs are unlikely to be a cost-effective strategy. |
format |
article |
topic_facet |
K01 - Foresterie - Considérations générales P33 - Chimie et physique du sol P01 - Conservation de la nature et ressources foncières forêt forêt tropicale humide déboisement culture itinérante cycle du carbone séquestration du carbone services écosystémiques montant compensatoire financement protection de la forêt Landsat imagerie cartographie de l'occupation du sol cartographie des fonctions de la forêt paysage http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3062 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7976 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_15590 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7038 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_17299 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_331583 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1348040570280 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_28654 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_29785 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_28075 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_36766 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_36760 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_9000094 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1374847637217 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4185 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_12076 |
author |
Mertz, Ole Grogan, Kenneth Pflugmacher, Dirk Lestrelin, Guillaume Castella, Jean-Christophe Vongvisouk, Thoumthone Hett, Cornelia Fensholt, Rasmus Sun, Zhanli Berry, Nicholas J. Müller, Daniel |
author_facet |
Mertz, Ole Grogan, Kenneth Pflugmacher, Dirk Lestrelin, Guillaume Castella, Jean-Christophe Vongvisouk, Thoumthone Hett, Cornelia Fensholt, Rasmus Sun, Zhanli Berry, Nicholas J. Müller, Daniel |
author_sort |
Mertz, Ole |
title |
Uncertainty in establishing forest reference levels and predicting future forest-based carbon stocks for REDD+ |
title_short |
Uncertainty in establishing forest reference levels and predicting future forest-based carbon stocks for REDD+ |
title_full |
Uncertainty in establishing forest reference levels and predicting future forest-based carbon stocks for REDD+ |
title_fullStr |
Uncertainty in establishing forest reference levels and predicting future forest-based carbon stocks for REDD+ |
title_full_unstemmed |
Uncertainty in establishing forest reference levels and predicting future forest-based carbon stocks for REDD+ |
title_sort |
uncertainty in establishing forest reference levels and predicting future forest-based carbon stocks for redd+ |
url |
http://agritrop.cirad.fr/586382/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/586382/7/Uncertainty%20in%20establishing%20forest%20reference%20levels%20and%20predicting%20future%20forest%20based%20carbon%20stocks%20for%20REDD.pdf |
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