A methapopulation model for the spread and persistence of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) in Africa sedentary mixed crop-livestock systems
Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) is endemic in several developing countries. Our objective is to evaluate the regional CBPP spread and persistence in a mixed crop-livestock system in Africa. A stochastic compartmental model in metapopulation is used, in which between-herd animal movements and the within-herd infection dynamics are explicitly represented. Hundred herds of varying size are modelled, each sending animals to n other herds (network degree). Animals are susceptible, latent, infectious, chronic carrier or resistant. The role of chronic carriers in CBPP spread being still debated, several chronic periods and infectiousness are tested. A sensitivity analysis is performed to evaluate the influence on model outputs of these parameters and of pathogen virulence, between-herd movement rate, network degree, and calves recruitment. Model outputs are the probability that individual- and group-level reproductive numbers R0 and R* are above one, the metapopulation infection duration, the probability of CBPP endemicity (when CBPP persists over 5 years), and the epidemic size in infected herds and infected animals. The most influential parameters are related to chronic carriers (infectiousness and chronic period), pathogen virulence, and recruitment rate. When assuming no CBPP re-introduction in the region, endemicity is only probable if chronic carriers are assumed infectious for at least 1 year and to shed the pathogen in not too low an amount. It becomes highly probable when assuming high pathogen virulence and high recruitment rate.
Main Authors: | , |
---|---|
Format: | article biblioteca |
Language: | eng |
Subjects: | L73 - Maladies des animaux, U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques, bovin, péripneumonie contagieuse bovine, modèle mathématique, épidémiologie, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1391, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16706, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24199, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2615, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_165, |
Online Access: | http://agritrop.cirad.fr/548339/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/548339/1/document_548339.pdf |
Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
id |
dig-cirad-fr-548339 |
---|---|
record_format |
koha |
spelling |
dig-cirad-fr-5483392024-01-28T16:51:16Z http://agritrop.cirad.fr/548339/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/548339/ A methapopulation model for the spread and persistence of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) in Africa sedentary mixed crop-livestock systems. Ezanno Pauline, Lesnoff Matthieu. 2009. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 256 : 493-503.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2008.10.001 <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2008.10.001> A methapopulation model for the spread and persistence of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) in Africa sedentary mixed crop-livestock systems Ezanno, Pauline Lesnoff, Matthieu eng 2009 Journal of Theoretical Biology L73 - Maladies des animaux U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques bovin péripneumonie contagieuse bovine modèle mathématique épidémiologie http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1391 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16706 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24199 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2615 Afrique http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_165 Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) is endemic in several developing countries. Our objective is to evaluate the regional CBPP spread and persistence in a mixed crop-livestock system in Africa. A stochastic compartmental model in metapopulation is used, in which between-herd animal movements and the within-herd infection dynamics are explicitly represented. Hundred herds of varying size are modelled, each sending animals to n other herds (network degree). Animals are susceptible, latent, infectious, chronic carrier or resistant. The role of chronic carriers in CBPP spread being still debated, several chronic periods and infectiousness are tested. A sensitivity analysis is performed to evaluate the influence on model outputs of these parameters and of pathogen virulence, between-herd movement rate, network degree, and calves recruitment. Model outputs are the probability that individual- and group-level reproductive numbers R0 and R* are above one, the metapopulation infection duration, the probability of CBPP endemicity (when CBPP persists over 5 years), and the epidemic size in infected herds and infected animals. The most influential parameters are related to chronic carriers (infectiousness and chronic period), pathogen virulence, and recruitment rate. When assuming no CBPP re-introduction in the region, endemicity is only probable if chronic carriers are assumed infectious for at least 1 year and to shed the pathogen in not too low an amount. It becomes highly probable when assuming high pathogen virulence and high recruitment rate. article info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal Article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://agritrop.cirad.fr/548339/1/document_548339.pdf application/pdf Cirad license info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess https://agritrop.cirad.fr/mention_legale.html https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2008.10.001 10.1016/j.jtbi.2008.10.001 http://catalogue-bibliotheques.cirad.fr/cgi-bin/koha/opac-detail.pl?biblionumber=202057 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.jtbi.2008.10.001 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/purl/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2008.10.001 |
institution |
CIRAD FR |
collection |
DSpace |
country |
Francia |
countrycode |
FR |
component |
Bibliográfico |
access |
En linea |
databasecode |
dig-cirad-fr |
tag |
biblioteca |
region |
Europa del Oeste |
libraryname |
Biblioteca del CIRAD Francia |
language |
eng |
topic |
L73 - Maladies des animaux U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques bovin péripneumonie contagieuse bovine modèle mathématique épidémiologie http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1391 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16706 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24199 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2615 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_165 L73 - Maladies des animaux U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques bovin péripneumonie contagieuse bovine modèle mathématique épidémiologie http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1391 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16706 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24199 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2615 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_165 |
spellingShingle |
L73 - Maladies des animaux U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques bovin péripneumonie contagieuse bovine modèle mathématique épidémiologie http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1391 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16706 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24199 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2615 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_165 L73 - Maladies des animaux U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques bovin péripneumonie contagieuse bovine modèle mathématique épidémiologie http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1391 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16706 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24199 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2615 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_165 Ezanno, Pauline Lesnoff, Matthieu A methapopulation model for the spread and persistence of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) in Africa sedentary mixed crop-livestock systems |
description |
Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) is endemic in several developing countries. Our objective is to evaluate the regional CBPP spread and persistence in a mixed crop-livestock system in Africa. A stochastic compartmental model in metapopulation is used, in which between-herd animal movements and the within-herd infection dynamics are explicitly represented. Hundred herds of varying size are modelled, each sending animals to n other herds (network degree). Animals are susceptible, latent, infectious, chronic carrier or resistant. The role of chronic carriers in CBPP spread being still debated, several chronic periods and infectiousness are tested. A sensitivity analysis is performed to evaluate the influence on model outputs of these parameters and of pathogen virulence, between-herd movement rate, network degree, and calves recruitment. Model outputs are the probability that individual- and group-level reproductive numbers R0 and R* are above one, the metapopulation infection duration, the probability of CBPP endemicity (when CBPP persists over 5 years), and the epidemic size in infected herds and infected animals. The most influential parameters are related to chronic carriers (infectiousness and chronic period), pathogen virulence, and recruitment rate. When assuming no CBPP re-introduction in the region, endemicity is only probable if chronic carriers are assumed infectious for at least 1 year and to shed the pathogen in not too low an amount. It becomes highly probable when assuming high pathogen virulence and high recruitment rate. |
format |
article |
topic_facet |
L73 - Maladies des animaux U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques bovin péripneumonie contagieuse bovine modèle mathématique épidémiologie http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1391 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16706 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24199 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2615 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_165 |
author |
Ezanno, Pauline Lesnoff, Matthieu |
author_facet |
Ezanno, Pauline Lesnoff, Matthieu |
author_sort |
Ezanno, Pauline |
title |
A methapopulation model for the spread and persistence of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) in Africa sedentary mixed crop-livestock systems |
title_short |
A methapopulation model for the spread and persistence of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) in Africa sedentary mixed crop-livestock systems |
title_full |
A methapopulation model for the spread and persistence of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) in Africa sedentary mixed crop-livestock systems |
title_fullStr |
A methapopulation model for the spread and persistence of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) in Africa sedentary mixed crop-livestock systems |
title_full_unstemmed |
A methapopulation model for the spread and persistence of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) in Africa sedentary mixed crop-livestock systems |
title_sort |
methapopulation model for the spread and persistence of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (cbpp) in africa sedentary mixed crop-livestock systems |
url |
http://agritrop.cirad.fr/548339/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/548339/1/document_548339.pdf |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT ezannopauline amethapopulationmodelforthespreadandpersistenceofcontagiousbovinepleuropneumoniacbppinafricasedentarymixedcroplivestocksystems AT lesnoffmatthieu amethapopulationmodelforthespreadandpersistenceofcontagiousbovinepleuropneumoniacbppinafricasedentarymixedcroplivestocksystems AT ezannopauline methapopulationmodelforthespreadandpersistenceofcontagiousbovinepleuropneumoniacbppinafricasedentarymixedcroplivestocksystems AT lesnoffmatthieu methapopulationmodelforthespreadandpersistenceofcontagiousbovinepleuropneumoniacbppinafricasedentarymixedcroplivestocksystems |
_version_ |
1792497140913668096 |