Analyzing the time-course variation of apple and pear tree dates of flowering stages in the global warming context
Over the last 40 years, perceptible advances in dates of flowering stages have been observed in apple and pear trees growing in three cropping areas in France and one in Switzerland. The time-course variation of dates of flowering stages was established for eight chronological sequences. Our aim was to propose a statistical modelling framework for such sequences with the objective of characterizing the relationship between flowering advances in fruit trees and global warming. After an exploratory analysis, change-point models were applied to multivariate and univariate sequences. The results clearly support the occurrence of a significant abrupt change in the time-course variation of flowering dates at the end of the 1980s toward more frequent early dates, the most probable change instant being between 1988 and 1989. The coincidence between this abrupt change in phenological variations and marked increases in temperature recorded particularly in France at the end of the 1980s led us to consider the flowering advances in apple and pear trees as impacts of global warming. The suddenness in the response to global warming could be explained by changes in rates for completion of chilling and heat requirements, successively essential to the development of floral primordia within buds. In all cropping areas, annual mean temperatures had suddenly increased since 1988 (1.1-1.3 ?C), but including noticeable monthly differences. Particularly, warming was clearly more pronounced in February and March (mean temperature increases of 1.6 ?C) corresponding to the main period of heat requirements, than in November and December (0.8 ?C) corresponding to the main period of chilling requirements. So marked temperature increases during the heat phase would have suddenly resulted in more frequent years with relatively short duration for completion of the heat requirements and consequently more frequent early flowering years, despite some years with relatively long duration of chilling requirements.
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Subjects: | F63 - Physiologie végétale - Reproduction, P40 - Météorologie et climatologie, Malus, Pyrus communis, arbre fruitier, floraison, changement climatique, phénologie, adaptation, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4553, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6391, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3128, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2992, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5774, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_117, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3081, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7558, |
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dig-cirad-fr-5466922024-01-28T16:27:18Z http://agritrop.cirad.fr/546692/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/546692/ Analyzing the time-course variation of apple and pear tree dates of flowering stages in the global warming context. Guédon Yann, Legave Jean Michel. 2008. Ecological Modelling, 219 (1-2) : 189-199.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.08.010 <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.08.010> Analyzing the time-course variation of apple and pear tree dates of flowering stages in the global warming context Guédon, Yann Legave, Jean Michel eng 2008 Ecological Modelling F63 - Physiologie végétale - Reproduction P40 - Météorologie et climatologie Malus Pyrus communis arbre fruitier floraison changement climatique phénologie adaptation http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4553 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6391 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3128 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2992 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5774 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_117 France Suisse http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3081 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7558 Over the last 40 years, perceptible advances in dates of flowering stages have been observed in apple and pear trees growing in three cropping areas in France and one in Switzerland. The time-course variation of dates of flowering stages was established for eight chronological sequences. Our aim was to propose a statistical modelling framework for such sequences with the objective of characterizing the relationship between flowering advances in fruit trees and global warming. After an exploratory analysis, change-point models were applied to multivariate and univariate sequences. The results clearly support the occurrence of a significant abrupt change in the time-course variation of flowering dates at the end of the 1980s toward more frequent early dates, the most probable change instant being between 1988 and 1989. The coincidence between this abrupt change in phenological variations and marked increases in temperature recorded particularly in France at the end of the 1980s led us to consider the flowering advances in apple and pear trees as impacts of global warming. The suddenness in the response to global warming could be explained by changes in rates for completion of chilling and heat requirements, successively essential to the development of floral primordia within buds. In all cropping areas, annual mean temperatures had suddenly increased since 1988 (1.1-1.3 ?C), but including noticeable monthly differences. Particularly, warming was clearly more pronounced in February and March (mean temperature increases of 1.6 ?C) corresponding to the main period of heat requirements, than in November and December (0.8 ?C) corresponding to the main period of chilling requirements. So marked temperature increases during the heat phase would have suddenly resulted in more frequent years with relatively short duration for completion of the heat requirements and consequently more frequent early flowering years, despite some years with relatively long duration of chilling requirements. article info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal Article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://agritrop.cirad.fr/546692/1/document_546692.pdf application/pdf Cirad license info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess https://agritrop.cirad.fr/mention_legale.html https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.08.010 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.08.010 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.08.010 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/purl/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.08.010 |
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F63 - Physiologie végétale - Reproduction P40 - Météorologie et climatologie Malus Pyrus communis arbre fruitier floraison changement climatique phénologie adaptation http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4553 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6391 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3128 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2992 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5774 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_117 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3081 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7558 F63 - Physiologie végétale - Reproduction P40 - Météorologie et climatologie Malus Pyrus communis arbre fruitier floraison changement climatique phénologie adaptation http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4553 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6391 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3128 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2992 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5774 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_117 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3081 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7558 |
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F63 - Physiologie végétale - Reproduction P40 - Météorologie et climatologie Malus Pyrus communis arbre fruitier floraison changement climatique phénologie adaptation http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4553 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6391 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3128 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2992 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5774 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_117 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3081 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7558 F63 - Physiologie végétale - Reproduction P40 - Météorologie et climatologie Malus Pyrus communis arbre fruitier floraison changement climatique phénologie adaptation http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4553 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6391 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3128 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2992 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5774 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_117 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3081 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7558 Guédon, Yann Legave, Jean Michel Analyzing the time-course variation of apple and pear tree dates of flowering stages in the global warming context |
description |
Over the last 40 years, perceptible advances in dates of flowering stages have been observed in apple and pear trees growing in three cropping areas in France and one in Switzerland. The time-course variation of dates of flowering stages was established for eight chronological sequences. Our aim was to propose a statistical modelling framework for such sequences with the objective of characterizing the relationship between flowering advances in fruit trees and global warming. After an exploratory analysis, change-point models were applied to multivariate and univariate sequences. The results clearly support the occurrence of a significant abrupt change in the time-course variation of flowering dates at the end of the 1980s toward more frequent early dates, the most probable change instant being between 1988 and 1989. The coincidence between this abrupt change in phenological variations and marked increases in temperature recorded particularly in France at the end of the 1980s led us to consider the flowering advances in apple and pear trees as impacts of global warming. The suddenness in the response to global warming could be explained by changes in rates for completion of chilling and heat requirements, successively essential to the development of floral primordia within buds. In all cropping areas, annual mean temperatures had suddenly increased since 1988 (1.1-1.3 ?C), but including noticeable monthly differences. Particularly, warming was clearly more pronounced in February and March (mean temperature increases of 1.6 ?C) corresponding to the main period of heat requirements, than in November and December (0.8 ?C) corresponding to the main period of chilling requirements. So marked temperature increases during the heat phase would have suddenly resulted in more frequent years with relatively short duration for completion of the heat requirements and consequently more frequent early flowering years, despite some years with relatively long duration of chilling requirements. |
format |
article |
topic_facet |
F63 - Physiologie végétale - Reproduction P40 - Météorologie et climatologie Malus Pyrus communis arbre fruitier floraison changement climatique phénologie adaptation http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4553 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6391 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3128 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2992 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5774 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_117 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3081 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7558 |
author |
Guédon, Yann Legave, Jean Michel |
author_facet |
Guédon, Yann Legave, Jean Michel |
author_sort |
Guédon, Yann |
title |
Analyzing the time-course variation of apple and pear tree dates of flowering stages in the global warming context |
title_short |
Analyzing the time-course variation of apple and pear tree dates of flowering stages in the global warming context |
title_full |
Analyzing the time-course variation of apple and pear tree dates of flowering stages in the global warming context |
title_fullStr |
Analyzing the time-course variation of apple and pear tree dates of flowering stages in the global warming context |
title_full_unstemmed |
Analyzing the time-course variation of apple and pear tree dates of flowering stages in the global warming context |
title_sort |
analyzing the time-course variation of apple and pear tree dates of flowering stages in the global warming context |
url |
http://agritrop.cirad.fr/546692/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/546692/1/document_546692.pdf |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT guedonyann analyzingthetimecoursevariationofappleandpeartreedatesoffloweringstagesintheglobalwarmingcontext AT legavejeanmichel analyzingthetimecoursevariationofappleandpeartreedatesoffloweringstagesintheglobalwarmingcontext |
_version_ |
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