Importance of considering technology growth in impact assessments of climate change on agriculture
Many assessments of climate change impacts on global crop yields project declines as early as the 2020s. Losses are projected to increase with time, up to 50% by the 2080s. We carry out a systematic global review and compare published projections of climate change impacts from 34 studies and ∼4500 data points for the 2020s for maize, rice and wheat at country level with observed and forecasted national crop yields for the same period based on available global crop statistics. We find that observed yield changes are considerably higher than projected yield changes arising from climate change because technological improvements appear to have a large yield-enhancing impact compared with the negative effects of climate change, at least in the short term. Most assessments of climate change impacts on crop yields show low-latitude, low and middle-income countries as highly vulnerable but these countries have shown the largest growth in observed yields over the same reference time period. These discrepancies are due to incomplete consideration of technological growth in climate impact assessments and large yield gaps in these countries, uncertainties associated with the methodologies used, and regional variations in adaptation options considered. Appropriate consideration of technological growth can add considerable value and relevance to global impact assessments, contributing to investment and development targeting at both large and small scales.
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Format: | Journal Article biblioteca |
Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2019-12
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Subjects: | climate change, technology, agriculture, food security, crop yield, ecology, food science, |
Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/100876 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2019.04.002 |
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dig-cgspace-10568-1008762023-12-08T19:36:04Z Importance of considering technology growth in impact assessments of climate change on agriculture Aggarwal, Pramod K. Vyas, Shalika Thornton, Philip K. Campbell, Bruce M. Kropff, Martin climate change technology agriculture food security crop yield ecology food science Many assessments of climate change impacts on global crop yields project declines as early as the 2020s. Losses are projected to increase with time, up to 50% by the 2080s. We carry out a systematic global review and compare published projections of climate change impacts from 34 studies and ∼4500 data points for the 2020s for maize, rice and wheat at country level with observed and forecasted national crop yields for the same period based on available global crop statistics. We find that observed yield changes are considerably higher than projected yield changes arising from climate change because technological improvements appear to have a large yield-enhancing impact compared with the negative effects of climate change, at least in the short term. Most assessments of climate change impacts on crop yields show low-latitude, low and middle-income countries as highly vulnerable but these countries have shown the largest growth in observed yields over the same reference time period. These discrepancies are due to incomplete consideration of technological growth in climate impact assessments and large yield gaps in these countries, uncertainties associated with the methodologies used, and regional variations in adaptation options considered. Appropriate consideration of technological growth can add considerable value and relevance to global impact assessments, contributing to investment and development targeting at both large and small scales. 2019-12 2019-04-23T16:18:35Z 2019-04-23T16:18:35Z Journal Article Aggarwal, Pramod; Vyas, Shalika; Thornton, Philip; Campbell, Bruce M. & Kropff, Martin (2019). Importance of considering technology growth in impact assessments of climate change on agriculture. Global Food Security, 23: 41-48 2211-9124 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/100876 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2019.04.002 en CC-BY-NC-ND-4.0 Open Access p. 41-48 Elsevier Global Food Security |
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climate change technology agriculture food security crop yield ecology food science climate change technology agriculture food security crop yield ecology food science Aggarwal, Pramod K. Vyas, Shalika Thornton, Philip K. Campbell, Bruce M. Kropff, Martin Importance of considering technology growth in impact assessments of climate change on agriculture |
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Many assessments of climate change impacts on global crop yields project declines as early as the 2020s. Losses are projected to increase with time, up to 50% by the 2080s. We carry out a systematic global review and compare published projections of climate change impacts from 34 studies and ∼4500 data points for the 2020s for maize, rice and wheat at country level with observed and forecasted national crop yields for the same period based on available global crop statistics. We find that observed yield changes are considerably higher than projected yield changes arising from climate change because technological improvements appear to have a large yield-enhancing impact compared with the negative effects of climate change, at least in the short term. Most assessments of climate change impacts on crop yields show low-latitude, low and middle-income countries as highly vulnerable but these countries have shown the largest growth in observed yields over the same reference time period. These discrepancies are due to incomplete consideration of technological growth in climate impact assessments and large yield gaps in these countries, uncertainties associated with the methodologies used, and regional variations in adaptation options considered. Appropriate consideration of technological growth can add considerable value and relevance to global impact assessments, contributing to investment and development targeting at both large and small scales. |
format |
Journal Article |
topic_facet |
climate change technology agriculture food security crop yield ecology food science |
author |
Aggarwal, Pramod K. Vyas, Shalika Thornton, Philip K. Campbell, Bruce M. Kropff, Martin |
author_facet |
Aggarwal, Pramod K. Vyas, Shalika Thornton, Philip K. Campbell, Bruce M. Kropff, Martin |
author_sort |
Aggarwal, Pramod K. |
title |
Importance of considering technology growth in impact assessments of climate change on agriculture |
title_short |
Importance of considering technology growth in impact assessments of climate change on agriculture |
title_full |
Importance of considering technology growth in impact assessments of climate change on agriculture |
title_fullStr |
Importance of considering technology growth in impact assessments of climate change on agriculture |
title_full_unstemmed |
Importance of considering technology growth in impact assessments of climate change on agriculture |
title_sort |
importance of considering technology growth in impact assessments of climate change on agriculture |
publisher |
Elsevier |
publishDate |
2019-12 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10568/100876 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2019.04.002 |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT aggarwalpramodk importanceofconsideringtechnologygrowthinimpactassessmentsofclimatechangeonagriculture AT vyasshalika importanceofconsideringtechnologygrowthinimpactassessmentsofclimatechangeonagriculture AT thorntonphilipk importanceofconsideringtechnologygrowthinimpactassessmentsofclimatechangeonagriculture AT campbellbrucem importanceofconsideringtechnologygrowthinimpactassessmentsofclimatechangeonagriculture AT kropffmartin importanceofconsideringtechnologygrowthinimpactassessmentsofclimatechangeonagriculture |
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