Possible scenarios for the formation of the continental runoff and the salinity of the Azov Sea, taking into account the current and future trends in climate change
The ongoing climate changes have a significant impact on the formation of the habitat conditions for the aquatic biological resources of the Azov Sea. Salinity of the Azov Sea waters and continental runoff, which role in maintaining the ecological well-being of the habitat of aquatic biological resources is paramount, has underwent particularly noticeable transformations. Relevance. Assessment of the degree of influence of ongoing and expected climate changes on the formation of abiotic parameters of the marine ecosystem is a prerequisite for planning the successful development of the fisheries industry of the Azov Sea Basin. The aim of this work is to assess the current and expected changes in the hydrometeorological parameters of the Azov Sea ecosystem, as well as to identify the most probable scenarios of changes in the Azov Sea salinity depending on the annual volume of continental runoff. Methods. The study is based on the data from AzNIIRKH database for the time range 1960–2020 collected over the course of the expedition surveys examining the Azov Sea hydrological regime and the data of the reference observation network of the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Roshydromet). Methods of mathematical statistics, graphoanalytical construction, mapping and analogy have been used for the data analysis. Results. This paper assesses the changes in the hydrological regime of the Azov Sea based on the annual monitoring of the habitat of aquatic biological resources. Preliminary calculations have been performed, and new data on the changes in the parameters of the sea water balance equation not covered by monitoring over the past forty-five years have been presented. The most probable formation scenarios for the continental runoff and the Azov Sea water salinity for the future up to 2030 are considered, with the observed trend of climate warming taken into account. Conclusions. Both the climatic and anthropogenic factors have contributed to considerable changes in the current hydrometeorological regime of the Azov Sea. These changes have mainly been manifested in an increase in air and water temperatures, a decrease in wind activity, and in a reduced continental runoff, in the formation of which, since 2006, a prolonged low water content cycle has been observed. The shortage of river runoff and increased water evaporation rate, along with other factors, have induced an unprecedented increase in the Azov Sea salinity, the average annual value of which in 2021 reached a record high (14.97 %). In the most probable scenario (60 %) with the continuation of the low water content period and the continental runoff into the Azov Sea of about 22 km3 in volume, the average annual salinity of the Azov Sea, including Taganrog Bay, can reach 15±0.40 ‰ with a variation range from 14.5 to 16.5 ‰ in the sea itself (excluding Taganrog Bay). 2021 can serve as an analogous year in terms of salinity formation and its spatial distribution.
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
---|---|
Format: | Journal Contribution biblioteca |
Language: | Russian |
Published: |
2023
|
Subjects: | Росгидромет, Влияние климатических факторов, Дефицит речного стока, Air temperature, Evaporation, Continental runoff, Water balance, Spatial distribution, Hydrometeorological regime, Environmental monitoring, ASFA_2015::S::Salinity effects, ASFA_2015::C::Climatic changes, ASFA_2015::S::Sea surface temperature, |
Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1834/42876 |
Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
id |
dig-aquadocs-1834-42876 |
---|---|
record_format |
koha |
institution |
UNESCO |
collection |
DSpace |
country |
Francia |
countrycode |
FR |
component |
Bibliográfico |
access |
En linea |
databasecode |
dig-aquadocs |
tag |
biblioteca |
region |
Europa del Oeste |
libraryname |
Repositorio AQUADOCS |
language |
Russian |
topic |
Росгидромет Влияние климатических факторов Дефицит речного стока Air temperature Evaporation Continental runoff Water balance Spatial distribution Hydrometeorological regime Environmental monitoring ASFA_2015::S::Salinity effects ASFA_2015::C::Climatic changes ASFA_2015::S::Sea surface temperature Росгидромет Влияние климатических факторов Дефицит речного стока Air temperature Evaporation Continental runoff Water balance Spatial distribution Hydrometeorological regime Environmental monitoring ASFA_2015::S::Salinity effects ASFA_2015::C::Climatic changes ASFA_2015::S::Sea surface temperature |
spellingShingle |
Росгидромет Влияние климатических факторов Дефицит речного стока Air temperature Evaporation Continental runoff Water balance Spatial distribution Hydrometeorological regime Environmental monitoring ASFA_2015::S::Salinity effects ASFA_2015::C::Climatic changes ASFA_2015::S::Sea surface temperature Росгидромет Влияние климатических факторов Дефицит речного стока Air temperature Evaporation Continental runoff Water balance Spatial distribution Hydrometeorological regime Environmental monitoring ASFA_2015::S::Salinity effects ASFA_2015::C::Climatic changes ASFA_2015::S::Sea surface temperature Zhukova, S.V. Mirzoyan, A.V. Shishkin, V.M. Podmareva, T.I. Lutynskaya, L.A. Taradina, E.A. Burlachko, D.S. Karmanov, V.G. Possible scenarios for the formation of the continental runoff and the salinity of the Azov Sea, taking into account the current and future trends in climate change |
description |
The ongoing climate changes have a significant impact on the formation of the habitat conditions for the aquatic biological resources of the Azov Sea. Salinity of the Azov Sea waters and continental runoff, which role in maintaining the ecological well-being of the habitat of aquatic biological resources is paramount, has underwent particularly noticeable transformations. Relevance. Assessment of the degree of influence of ongoing and expected climate changes on the formation of abiotic parameters of the marine ecosystem is a prerequisite for planning the successful development of the fisheries industry of the Azov Sea Basin. The aim of this work is to assess the current and expected changes in the hydrometeorological parameters of the Azov Sea ecosystem, as well as to identify the most probable scenarios of changes in the Azov Sea salinity depending on the annual volume of continental runoff. Methods. The study is based on the data from AzNIIRKH database for the time range 1960–2020 collected over the course of the expedition surveys examining the Azov Sea hydrological regime and the data of the reference observation network of the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Roshydromet). Methods of mathematical statistics, graphoanalytical construction, mapping and analogy have been used for the data analysis. Results. This paper assesses the changes in the hydrological regime of the Azov Sea based on the annual monitoring of the habitat of aquatic biological resources. Preliminary calculations have been performed, and new data on the changes in the parameters of the sea water balance equation not covered by monitoring over the past forty-five years have been presented. The most probable formation scenarios for the continental runoff and the Azov Sea water salinity for the future up to 2030 are considered, with the observed trend of climate warming taken into account. Conclusions. Both the climatic and anthropogenic factors have contributed to considerable changes in the current hydrometeorological regime of the Azov Sea. These changes have mainly been manifested in an increase in air and water temperatures, a decrease in wind activity, and in a reduced continental runoff, in the formation of which, since 2006, a prolonged low water content cycle has been observed. The shortage of river runoff and increased water evaporation rate, along with other factors, have induced an unprecedented increase in the Azov Sea salinity, the average annual value of which in 2021 reached a record high (14.97 %). In the most probable scenario (60 %) with the continuation of the low water content period and the continental runoff into the Azov Sea of about 22 km3 in volume, the average annual salinity of the Azov Sea, including Taganrog Bay, can reach 15±0.40 ‰ with a variation range from 14.5 to 16.5 ‰ in the sea itself (excluding Taganrog Bay). 2021 can serve as an analogous year in terms of salinity formation and its spatial distribution. |
format |
Journal Contribution |
topic_facet |
Росгидромет Влияние климатических факторов Дефицит речного стока Air temperature Evaporation Continental runoff Water balance Spatial distribution Hydrometeorological regime Environmental monitoring ASFA_2015::S::Salinity effects ASFA_2015::C::Climatic changes ASFA_2015::S::Sea surface temperature |
author |
Zhukova, S.V. Mirzoyan, A.V. Shishkin, V.M. Podmareva, T.I. Lutynskaya, L.A. Taradina, E.A. Burlachko, D.S. Karmanov, V.G. |
author_facet |
Zhukova, S.V. Mirzoyan, A.V. Shishkin, V.M. Podmareva, T.I. Lutynskaya, L.A. Taradina, E.A. Burlachko, D.S. Karmanov, V.G. |
author_sort |
Zhukova, S.V. |
title |
Possible scenarios for the formation of the continental runoff and the salinity of the Azov Sea, taking into account the current and future trends in climate change |
title_short |
Possible scenarios for the formation of the continental runoff and the salinity of the Azov Sea, taking into account the current and future trends in climate change |
title_full |
Possible scenarios for the formation of the continental runoff and the salinity of the Azov Sea, taking into account the current and future trends in climate change |
title_fullStr |
Possible scenarios for the formation of the continental runoff and the salinity of the Azov Sea, taking into account the current and future trends in climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Possible scenarios for the formation of the continental runoff and the salinity of the Azov Sea, taking into account the current and future trends in climate change |
title_sort |
possible scenarios for the formation of the continental runoff and the salinity of the azov sea, taking into account the current and future trends in climate change |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/1834/42876 |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT zhukovasv possiblescenariosfortheformationofthecontinentalrunoffandthesalinityoftheazovseatakingintoaccountthecurrentandfuturetrendsinclimatechange AT mirzoyanav possiblescenariosfortheformationofthecontinentalrunoffandthesalinityoftheazovseatakingintoaccountthecurrentandfuturetrendsinclimatechange AT shishkinvm possiblescenariosfortheformationofthecontinentalrunoffandthesalinityoftheazovseatakingintoaccountthecurrentandfuturetrendsinclimatechange AT podmarevati possiblescenariosfortheformationofthecontinentalrunoffandthesalinityoftheazovseatakingintoaccountthecurrentandfuturetrendsinclimatechange AT lutynskayala possiblescenariosfortheformationofthecontinentalrunoffandthesalinityoftheazovseatakingintoaccountthecurrentandfuturetrendsinclimatechange AT taradinaea possiblescenariosfortheformationofthecontinentalrunoffandthesalinityoftheazovseatakingintoaccountthecurrentandfuturetrendsinclimatechange AT burlachkods possiblescenariosfortheformationofthecontinentalrunoffandthesalinityoftheazovseatakingintoaccountthecurrentandfuturetrendsinclimatechange AT karmanovvg possiblescenariosfortheformationofthecontinentalrunoffandthesalinityoftheazovseatakingintoaccountthecurrentandfuturetrendsinclimatechange AT zhukovasv vozmožnyescenariiformirovaniâmaterikovogostokaisolenostivodazovskogomorâsučetomsovremennyhiperspektivnyhtendencijizmeneniâklimata AT mirzoyanav vozmožnyescenariiformirovaniâmaterikovogostokaisolenostivodazovskogomorâsučetomsovremennyhiperspektivnyhtendencijizmeneniâklimata AT shishkinvm vozmožnyescenariiformirovaniâmaterikovogostokaisolenostivodazovskogomorâsučetomsovremennyhiperspektivnyhtendencijizmeneniâklimata AT podmarevati vozmožnyescenariiformirovaniâmaterikovogostokaisolenostivodazovskogomorâsučetomsovremennyhiperspektivnyhtendencijizmeneniâklimata AT lutynskayala vozmožnyescenariiformirovaniâmaterikovogostokaisolenostivodazovskogomorâsučetomsovremennyhiperspektivnyhtendencijizmeneniâklimata AT taradinaea vozmožnyescenariiformirovaniâmaterikovogostokaisolenostivodazovskogomorâsučetomsovremennyhiperspektivnyhtendencijizmeneniâklimata AT burlachkods vozmožnyescenariiformirovaniâmaterikovogostokaisolenostivodazovskogomorâsučetomsovremennyhiperspektivnyhtendencijizmeneniâklimata AT karmanovvg vozmožnyescenariiformirovaniâmaterikovogostokaisolenostivodazovskogomorâsučetomsovremennyhiperspektivnyhtendencijizmeneniâklimata |
_version_ |
1787227828163444736 |
spelling |
dig-aquadocs-1834-428762023-12-09T02:13:46Z Possible scenarios for the formation of the continental runoff and the salinity of the Azov Sea, taking into account the current and future trends in climate change Возможные сценарии формирования материкового стока и солености вод Азовского моря с учетом современных и перспективных тенденций изменения климата Zhukova, S.V. Mirzoyan, A.V. Shishkin, V.M. Podmareva, T.I. Lutynskaya, L.A. Taradina, E.A. Burlachko, D.S. Karmanov, V.G. Росгидромет Влияние климатических факторов Дефицит речного стока Air temperature Evaporation Continental runoff Water balance Spatial distribution Hydrometeorological regime Environmental monitoring ASFA_2015::S::Salinity effects ASFA_2015::C::Climatic changes ASFA_2015::S::Sea surface temperature The ongoing climate changes have a significant impact on the formation of the habitat conditions for the aquatic biological resources of the Azov Sea. Salinity of the Azov Sea waters and continental runoff, which role in maintaining the ecological well-being of the habitat of aquatic biological resources is paramount, has underwent particularly noticeable transformations. Relevance. Assessment of the degree of influence of ongoing and expected climate changes on the formation of abiotic parameters of the marine ecosystem is a prerequisite for planning the successful development of the fisheries industry of the Azov Sea Basin. The aim of this work is to assess the current and expected changes in the hydrometeorological parameters of the Azov Sea ecosystem, as well as to identify the most probable scenarios of changes in the Azov Sea salinity depending on the annual volume of continental runoff. Methods. The study is based on the data from AzNIIRKH database for the time range 1960–2020 collected over the course of the expedition surveys examining the Azov Sea hydrological regime and the data of the reference observation network of the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Roshydromet). Methods of mathematical statistics, graphoanalytical construction, mapping and analogy have been used for the data analysis. Results. This paper assesses the changes in the hydrological regime of the Azov Sea based on the annual monitoring of the habitat of aquatic biological resources. Preliminary calculations have been performed, and new data on the changes in the parameters of the sea water balance equation not covered by monitoring over the past forty-five years have been presented. The most probable formation scenarios for the continental runoff and the Azov Sea water salinity for the future up to 2030 are considered, with the observed trend of climate warming taken into account. Conclusions. Both the climatic and anthropogenic factors have contributed to considerable changes in the current hydrometeorological regime of the Azov Sea. These changes have mainly been manifested in an increase in air and water temperatures, a decrease in wind activity, and in a reduced continental runoff, in the formation of which, since 2006, a prolonged low water content cycle has been observed. The shortage of river runoff and increased water evaporation rate, along with other factors, have induced an unprecedented increase in the Azov Sea salinity, the average annual value of which in 2021 reached a record high (14.97 %). In the most probable scenario (60 %) with the continuation of the low water content period and the continental runoff into the Azov Sea of about 22 km3 in volume, the average annual salinity of the Azov Sea, including Taganrog Bay, can reach 15±0.40 ‰ with a variation range from 14.5 to 16.5 ‰ in the sea itself (excluding Taganrog Bay). 2021 can serve as an analogous year in terms of salinity formation and its spatial distribution. Происходящие изменения климата оказывают существенное влияние на формирование условий среды обитания водных биологических ресурсов Азовского моря. Особенно ощутимые преобразования коснулись солености азовоморских вод и материкового стока, роль которых в поддержании экологического благополучия среды обитания водных биологических ресурсов первостепенна. Оценка степени влияния происходящих и ожидаемых изменений климата на формирование абиотических параметров экосистемы моря является необходимым условием для планирования успешного развития рыбохозяйственного комплекса бассейна Азовского моря. Цель данной работы — оценить современные и ожидаемые изменения гидрометеорологических параметров экосистемы Азовского моря, а также определить наиболее вероятные сценарии изменения солености Азовского моря в зависимости от годовых объемов материкового стока. Использованы материалы экспедиционных исследований гидрологического режима Азовского моря за период 1960–2020 гг. из базы данных АзНИИРХ и данные опорной сети Росгидромета. Для анализа данных применены методы математической статистики, графоаналитического построения, картирования и методы аналогии. Результаты. В работе дана оценка происшедших изменений гидрологического режима Азовского моря по данным ежегодного мониторинга среды обитания водных биологических ресурсов. Выполнены предварительные расчеты и представлены новые данные по изменению не охваченных мониторингом параметров уравнения водного баланса моря за последние сорок пять лет. Рассмотрены наиболее вероятные сценарии формирования материкового стока и солености вод Азовского моря на перспективу до 2030 г. с учетом наблюдаемой тенденции потепления климата. Влияние климатических и антропогенных факторов способствовало существенным изменениям современного гидрометеорологического режима Азовского моря. Эти изменения в наибольшей степени проявились в повышении температуры воздуха и водной среды, снижении ветровой активности и уменьшении материкового стока, в формировании которого начиная с 2006 г. отмечается затянувшийся маловодный цикл. Дефицит речного стока и возросшие расходы воды на испарение, наряду с прочими факторами, спровоцировали беспрецедентный рост солености вод Азовского моря, среднегодовое значение которой в 2021 г. достигло рекордно высокого уровня (14,97 ‰). При наиболее вероятном сценарии (60 %) с сохранением маловодного периода и материковым стоком в Азовское море объемом около 22 км3 среднегодовая соленость Азовского моря, включая Таганрогский залив, может достичь значений 15±0,40 ‰ с диапазоном колебаний в собственно море в интервале от 14,5 до 16,5 ‰. Годом-аналогом формирования такой солености и ее пространственного распределения может служить 2021 г. Published Refereed 2023-12-08T10:52:55Z 2023-12-08T10:52:55Z 2023 Journal Contribution 2618-8147 print 2619-1024 online 10.47921/2619-1024_2023_6_4_7 http://hdl.handle.net/1834/42876 ru https://journal.azniirkh.ru/uploads/files/2023/12/05/8_31_%D1%826_N4_2023_656e80ea16c2a.pdf Attribution 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ pp.7–30 Азовское море Azov Sea Таганрогский залив Taganrog Bay |