Skill of monthly forecasts during the Northern Hemisphere summer
We have performed GCM experiments using the National Meteorological Center's Medium Range Forecasting (MRF) model to study the skill of monthly forecasts during the Northern Hemisphere summer and to test the impact of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) on such forecasts. The daily skill varies a great deal. The skillful daily forecasts last from 5 to 8 days for the Southern Hemisphere and from 6 to 8 days for the Northern Hemisphere. SSTAs have positive impact on the forecasts in the tropics and surface variables, but the impact of tropical SSTAs on the extra-tropical circulation is, in general, positive but small. Overall, the initial conditions play a more important role than SSTAs in determining the forecast skill.
Saved in:
Main Author: | Mo, Kingtse C. |
---|---|
Format: | conference_item biblioteca |
Language: | English |
Published: |
1991
|
Subjects: | Atmospheric Sciences, Oceanography, PACLIM, |
Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1834/31425 |
Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
Similar Items
-
1988 summer drought over the Great Plains: some causes and predictions
by: Namias, Jerome
Published: (1990-02) -
Pacific sea surface temperature associations with southwestern United States summer rainfall and atmospheric circulation
by: Carleton, Andrew M., et al.
Published: (1990-02) -
The California flooding rains during February, 1986 [abstract]
by: Cayan, Dan
Published: (1986) -
ENSO and precipitation variability over Mexico during the last 90 years
by: Kiladis, George N., et al.
Published: (1993-03) -
Strong, low frequency (decadal) environmental fluctuations during the 20th century in the North Pacific Ocean, on the Washington coast, and in Puget Sound
by: Ebbesmeyer, Curtis C., et al.
Published: (1990-02)