The occurrence of drought and its probabilities in the Baixada Fluminense, Rio de Janeiro
This study has tabulated the consecutive days without rain for the thirty year period of 1941 through 1970. The data were taken from the daily records of the Climatological Section of the Instituto de Pesquisa Agropecuária do Centro-Sul. The data were analized statistically utilizing the first order Markov chain probability model. The probabilities are derived for the Baixada Fluminense area (Rio de Janeiro). The major dry periods were recorded in the months of June, July and August. The range of probabilities of dry periods of 5 days duration or longer were from 10% in December to 51% in August. The transition (months) were noted in April and May and again in September.
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Pesquisa Agropecuaria Brasileira
2014
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rev-pab-br-article-175112014-04-15T18:48:37Z The occurrence of drought and its probabilities in the Baixada Fluminense, Rio de Janeiro Ocorrência de estiagem e sua probalidades na Baixada Fluminense Menezes, Dinah Mochel de Ellis, Jacques Mueller, Sven Koster This study has tabulated the consecutive days without rain for the thirty year period of 1941 through 1970. The data were taken from the daily records of the Climatological Section of the Instituto de Pesquisa Agropecuária do Centro-Sul. The data were analized statistically utilizing the first order Markov chain probability model. The probabilities are derived for the Baixada Fluminense area (Rio de Janeiro). The major dry periods were recorded in the months of June, July and August. The range of probabilities of dry periods of 5 days duration or longer were from 10% in December to 51% in August. The transition (months) were noted in April and May and again in September. Foram tabuladas as sequências de dias consecutivos sem chuva, em período de 30 anos, através dos registros pluviométricos diários na região da Baixada Fluminense. Pela análise estatística, utilizando o modelo da cadeia de Markoff de 1.ª ordem, foram calculadas as probabilidades de ocorrência de estiagens para a região. As maiores e mais frequentes estiagens foram observadas nos meses de junho, julho e agosto. Foi verificado que a probabilidade de estiagens maiores do que cinco dias varia de 10% em dezembro a 51% em agosto. Foram identificados como meses de transição abril e setembro. Pesquisa Agropecuaria Brasileira Pesquisa Agropecuária Brasileira 2014-04-15 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion application/pdf https://seer.sct.embrapa.br/index.php/pab/article/view/17511 Pesquisa Agropecuaria Brasileira; v.8, n.7, 1973: Série Agronomia; 181-185 Pesquisa Agropecuária Brasileira; v.8, n.7, 1973: Série Agronomia; 181-185 1678-3921 0100-104x por https://seer.sct.embrapa.br/index.php/pab/article/view/17511/11744 |
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| author |
Menezes, Dinah Mochel de Ellis, Jacques Mueller, Sven Koster |
| spellingShingle |
Menezes, Dinah Mochel de Ellis, Jacques Mueller, Sven Koster The occurrence of drought and its probabilities in the Baixada Fluminense, Rio de Janeiro |
| author_facet |
Menezes, Dinah Mochel de Ellis, Jacques Mueller, Sven Koster |
| author_sort |
Menezes, Dinah Mochel de |
| title |
The occurrence of drought and its probabilities in the Baixada Fluminense, Rio de Janeiro |
| title_short |
The occurrence of drought and its probabilities in the Baixada Fluminense, Rio de Janeiro |
| title_full |
The occurrence of drought and its probabilities in the Baixada Fluminense, Rio de Janeiro |
| title_fullStr |
The occurrence of drought and its probabilities in the Baixada Fluminense, Rio de Janeiro |
| title_full_unstemmed |
The occurrence of drought and its probabilities in the Baixada Fluminense, Rio de Janeiro |
| title_sort |
occurrence of drought and its probabilities in the baixada fluminense, rio de janeiro |
| description |
This study has tabulated the consecutive days without rain for the thirty year period of 1941 through 1970. The data were taken from the daily records of the Climatological Section of the Instituto de Pesquisa Agropecuária do Centro-Sul. The data were analized statistically utilizing the first order Markov chain probability model. The probabilities are derived for the Baixada Fluminense area (Rio de Janeiro). The major dry periods were recorded in the months of June, July and August. The range of probabilities of dry periods of 5 days duration or longer were from 10% in December to 51% in August. The transition (months) were noted in April and May and again in September. |
| publisher |
Pesquisa Agropecuaria Brasileira |
| publishDate |
2014 |
| url |
https://seer.sct.embrapa.br/index.php/pab/article/view/17511 |
| work_keys_str_mv |
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