Intensity-duration-frequency curves in the municipality of Belo Horizonte from the perspective of non-stationarity
ABSTRACT The study of changes in hydrological data series is of great scientific and practical importance for water resources systems, since these are normally projected based on the assumption that time series is statistically stationary. However, such assumption may not be verified when aspects as changes or climatic variability are considered. In this sense, the present study sought to identify trends in maximum rainfall intensities in Belo Horizonte (MG) and propose, in view of the observed results, a new intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curve from the perspective of non-stationarity. For the trend analysis, statistical tests were applied, and an adaptation of the concept “Minimax Design Life Level” was proposed to quantify rainfall intensities and fit a non-stationary IDF curve. As a result, different trends were detected, with an increase in rainfall intensities for durations equal to or less than 1 hour starting in 2000. Regarding the IDF relationships, the obtained rain intensities were up to 48% higher than current estimates. Our results emphasize the need to periodically review IDF relationships in order to avoid under or overestimation in the design of hydraulic structures.
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Associação Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos
2021
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oai:scielo:S2318-033120210001002282021-08-30Intensity-duration-frequency curves in the municipality of Belo Horizonte from the perspective of non-stationarityNunes,Aline de AraújoPinto,Eber José de AndradeBaptista,Márcio BeneditoPaula,Mhaisa Henrique deXavier,Mateus Oliveira Climate change Heavy rainfall Extreme precipitation Non-stationary IDFs ABSTRACT The study of changes in hydrological data series is of great scientific and practical importance for water resources systems, since these are normally projected based on the assumption that time series is statistically stationary. However, such assumption may not be verified when aspects as changes or climatic variability are considered. In this sense, the present study sought to identify trends in maximum rainfall intensities in Belo Horizonte (MG) and propose, in view of the observed results, a new intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curve from the perspective of non-stationarity. For the trend analysis, statistical tests were applied, and an adaptation of the concept “Minimax Design Life Level” was proposed to quantify rainfall intensities and fit a non-stationary IDF curve. As a result, different trends were detected, with an increase in rainfall intensities for durations equal to or less than 1 hour starting in 2000. Regarding the IDF relationships, the obtained rain intensities were up to 48% higher than current estimates. Our results emphasize the need to periodically review IDF relationships in order to avoid under or overestimation in the design of hydraulic structures.info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessAssociação Brasileira de Recursos HídricosRBRH v.26 20212021-01-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articletext/htmlhttp://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2318-03312021000100228en10.1590/2318-0331.262120210017 |
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Nunes,Aline de Araújo Pinto,Eber José de Andrade Baptista,Márcio Benedito Paula,Mhaisa Henrique de Xavier,Mateus Oliveira |
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Nunes,Aline de Araújo Pinto,Eber José de Andrade Baptista,Márcio Benedito Paula,Mhaisa Henrique de Xavier,Mateus Oliveira Intensity-duration-frequency curves in the municipality of Belo Horizonte from the perspective of non-stationarity |
author_facet |
Nunes,Aline de Araújo Pinto,Eber José de Andrade Baptista,Márcio Benedito Paula,Mhaisa Henrique de Xavier,Mateus Oliveira |
author_sort |
Nunes,Aline de Araújo |
title |
Intensity-duration-frequency curves in the municipality of Belo Horizonte from the perspective of non-stationarity |
title_short |
Intensity-duration-frequency curves in the municipality of Belo Horizonte from the perspective of non-stationarity |
title_full |
Intensity-duration-frequency curves in the municipality of Belo Horizonte from the perspective of non-stationarity |
title_fullStr |
Intensity-duration-frequency curves in the municipality of Belo Horizonte from the perspective of non-stationarity |
title_full_unstemmed |
Intensity-duration-frequency curves in the municipality of Belo Horizonte from the perspective of non-stationarity |
title_sort |
intensity-duration-frequency curves in the municipality of belo horizonte from the perspective of non-stationarity |
description |
ABSTRACT The study of changes in hydrological data series is of great scientific and practical importance for water resources systems, since these are normally projected based on the assumption that time series is statistically stationary. However, such assumption may not be verified when aspects as changes or climatic variability are considered. In this sense, the present study sought to identify trends in maximum rainfall intensities in Belo Horizonte (MG) and propose, in view of the observed results, a new intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curve from the perspective of non-stationarity. For the trend analysis, statistical tests were applied, and an adaptation of the concept “Minimax Design Life Level” was proposed to quantify rainfall intensities and fit a non-stationary IDF curve. As a result, different trends were detected, with an increase in rainfall intensities for durations equal to or less than 1 hour starting in 2000. Regarding the IDF relationships, the obtained rain intensities were up to 48% higher than current estimates. Our results emphasize the need to periodically review IDF relationships in order to avoid under or overestimation in the design of hydraulic structures. |
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Associação Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos |
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2021 |
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http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2318-03312021000100228 |
work_keys_str_mv |
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