Hydrological Modeling of the Tampaon River in the Context of Climate Change
This work compares the hydrological modeling of the Tampaon River Basin (in east-central Mexico) with two hydrological models (SWAT and GR4J) and then evaluates the impact of climate change on the water balance of the basin. The calibration and validation of the models (over 14-year periods) show that both performed satisfactorily when simulating daily flows. The results indicate that SWAT more precisely reproduces observed mean monthly streamflow while GR4J overestimates it during the dry season and underestimates it during the rainy season. The analysis of the impact of climate change was performed by using climate ensemble simulations derived from the Canadian Global Climate Model (CGCM3) downscaled by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM). The climate simulations (after bias correction) were used as input data for both hydrological models for two periods: a reference period (1971 - 2000) and a future period (2041-2070). The results indicate a significant decrease in mean monthly streamflow in the Tampaon River Basin for the future period (-36 to -55%), as well as a decrease in maximum monthly streamflow (-34 to -60%) and minimum monthly streamflow (-36 to -49%). The results from this study provide an overall perspective of the potential impact of climate change on the hydrological response of the Tampaon River Basin.
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Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua, Coordinación de Comunicación, Participación e Información
2015
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Online Access: | http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2007-24222015000500002 |
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oai:scielo:S2007-242220150005000022016-05-09Hydrological Modeling of the Tampaon River in the Context of Climate ChangeVelázquez,Juan AlbertoTroin,MagaliCaya,Daniel Canadian Regional Climate Model SWAT GR4J climate change impacts This work compares the hydrological modeling of the Tampaon River Basin (in east-central Mexico) with two hydrological models (SWAT and GR4J) and then evaluates the impact of climate change on the water balance of the basin. The calibration and validation of the models (over 14-year periods) show that both performed satisfactorily when simulating daily flows. The results indicate that SWAT more precisely reproduces observed mean monthly streamflow while GR4J overestimates it during the dry season and underestimates it during the rainy season. The analysis of the impact of climate change was performed by using climate ensemble simulations derived from the Canadian Global Climate Model (CGCM3) downscaled by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM). The climate simulations (after bias correction) were used as input data for both hydrological models for two periods: a reference period (1971 - 2000) and a future period (2041-2070). The results indicate a significant decrease in mean monthly streamflow in the Tampaon River Basin for the future period (-36 to -55%), as well as a decrease in maximum monthly streamflow (-34 to -60%) and minimum monthly streamflow (-36 to -49%). The results from this study provide an overall perspective of the potential impact of climate change on the hydrological response of the Tampaon River Basin.info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessInstituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua, Coordinación de Comunicación, Participación e InformaciónTecnología y ciencias del agua v.6 n.5 20152015-10-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articletext/htmlhttp://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2007-24222015000500002en |
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Velázquez,Juan Alberto Troin,Magali Caya,Daniel |
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Velázquez,Juan Alberto Troin,Magali Caya,Daniel Hydrological Modeling of the Tampaon River in the Context of Climate Change |
author_facet |
Velázquez,Juan Alberto Troin,Magali Caya,Daniel |
author_sort |
Velázquez,Juan Alberto |
title |
Hydrological Modeling of the Tampaon River in the Context of Climate Change |
title_short |
Hydrological Modeling of the Tampaon River in the Context of Climate Change |
title_full |
Hydrological Modeling of the Tampaon River in the Context of Climate Change |
title_fullStr |
Hydrological Modeling of the Tampaon River in the Context of Climate Change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Hydrological Modeling of the Tampaon River in the Context of Climate Change |
title_sort |
hydrological modeling of the tampaon river in the context of climate change |
description |
This work compares the hydrological modeling of the Tampaon River Basin (in east-central Mexico) with two hydrological models (SWAT and GR4J) and then evaluates the impact of climate change on the water balance of the basin. The calibration and validation of the models (over 14-year periods) show that both performed satisfactorily when simulating daily flows. The results indicate that SWAT more precisely reproduces observed mean monthly streamflow while GR4J overestimates it during the dry season and underestimates it during the rainy season. The analysis of the impact of climate change was performed by using climate ensemble simulations derived from the Canadian Global Climate Model (CGCM3) downscaled by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM). The climate simulations (after bias correction) were used as input data for both hydrological models for two periods: a reference period (1971 - 2000) and a future period (2041-2070). The results indicate a significant decrease in mean monthly streamflow in the Tampaon River Basin for the future period (-36 to -55%), as well as a decrease in maximum monthly streamflow (-34 to -60%) and minimum monthly streamflow (-36 to -49%). The results from this study provide an overall perspective of the potential impact of climate change on the hydrological response of the Tampaon River Basin. |
publisher |
Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua, Coordinación de Comunicación, Participación e Información |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2007-24222015000500002 |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT velazquezjuanalberto hydrologicalmodelingofthetampaonriverinthecontextofclimatechange AT troinmagali hydrologicalmodelingofthetampaonriverinthecontextofclimatechange AT cayadaniel hydrologicalmodelingofthetampaonriverinthecontextofclimatechange |
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1756230250495213568 |