Population mobility, demographic, and environmental characteristics of dengue fever epidemics in a major city in Southeastern Brazil, 2007-2015
Around 14% of world dengue virus (DENV) cases occur in the Americas, most of them in Brazil. While socioeconomic, environmental, and behavioral correlates have been analyzed thoroughly, the role played by population mobility on DENV epidemics, especially at the local level, remains scarce. This study assesses whether the daily pattern of population mobility is associated with DENV incidence in Campinas, a Brazilian major city with over 1.2 million inhabitants in São Paulo State. DENV notifications from 2007 to 2015 were geocoded at street level (n = 114,884) and combined with sociodemographic and environmental data from the 2010 population census. Population mobility was extracted from the Origin-Destination Survey (ODS), carried out in 2011, and daily precipitation was obtained from satellite imagery. Multivariate zero-inflated negative binomial regression models were applied. High population mobility presented a relevant positive effect on higher risk for DENV incidence. High income and residence in apartments were found to be protective characteristics against the disease, while unpaved streets, number of strategic points (such as scrapyards and tire repair shops), and precipitation were consistently risk factors.
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Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública Sergio Arouca, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz
2021
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oai:scielo:S0102-311X20210004050032021-04-13Population mobility, demographic, and environmental characteristics of dengue fever epidemics in a major city in Southeastern Brazil, 2007-2015Johansen,Igor CavalliniCastro,Marcia Caldas deAlves,Luciana CorreiaCarmo,Roberto Luiz do Dengue Population Dynamics Environment Around 14% of world dengue virus (DENV) cases occur in the Americas, most of them in Brazil. While socioeconomic, environmental, and behavioral correlates have been analyzed thoroughly, the role played by population mobility on DENV epidemics, especially at the local level, remains scarce. This study assesses whether the daily pattern of population mobility is associated with DENV incidence in Campinas, a Brazilian major city with over 1.2 million inhabitants in São Paulo State. DENV notifications from 2007 to 2015 were geocoded at street level (n = 114,884) and combined with sociodemographic and environmental data from the 2010 population census. Population mobility was extracted from the Origin-Destination Survey (ODS), carried out in 2011, and daily precipitation was obtained from satellite imagery. Multivariate zero-inflated negative binomial regression models were applied. High population mobility presented a relevant positive effect on higher risk for DENV incidence. High income and residence in apartments were found to be protective characteristics against the disease, while unpaved streets, number of strategic points (such as scrapyards and tire repair shops), and precipitation were consistently risk factors.info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessEscola Nacional de Saúde Pública Sergio Arouca, Fundação Oswaldo CruzCadernos de Saúde Pública v.37 n.4 20212021-01-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articletext/htmlhttp://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0102-311X2021000405003en10.1590/0102-311x00079620 |
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Johansen,Igor Cavallini Castro,Marcia Caldas de Alves,Luciana Correia Carmo,Roberto Luiz do |
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Johansen,Igor Cavallini Castro,Marcia Caldas de Alves,Luciana Correia Carmo,Roberto Luiz do Population mobility, demographic, and environmental characteristics of dengue fever epidemics in a major city in Southeastern Brazil, 2007-2015 |
author_facet |
Johansen,Igor Cavallini Castro,Marcia Caldas de Alves,Luciana Correia Carmo,Roberto Luiz do |
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Johansen,Igor Cavallini |
title |
Population mobility, demographic, and environmental characteristics of dengue fever epidemics in a major city in Southeastern Brazil, 2007-2015 |
title_short |
Population mobility, demographic, and environmental characteristics of dengue fever epidemics in a major city in Southeastern Brazil, 2007-2015 |
title_full |
Population mobility, demographic, and environmental characteristics of dengue fever epidemics in a major city in Southeastern Brazil, 2007-2015 |
title_fullStr |
Population mobility, demographic, and environmental characteristics of dengue fever epidemics in a major city in Southeastern Brazil, 2007-2015 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Population mobility, demographic, and environmental characteristics of dengue fever epidemics in a major city in Southeastern Brazil, 2007-2015 |
title_sort |
population mobility, demographic, and environmental characteristics of dengue fever epidemics in a major city in southeastern brazil, 2007-2015 |
description |
Around 14% of world dengue virus (DENV) cases occur in the Americas, most of them in Brazil. While socioeconomic, environmental, and behavioral correlates have been analyzed thoroughly, the role played by population mobility on DENV epidemics, especially at the local level, remains scarce. This study assesses whether the daily pattern of population mobility is associated with DENV incidence in Campinas, a Brazilian major city with over 1.2 million inhabitants in São Paulo State. DENV notifications from 2007 to 2015 were geocoded at street level (n = 114,884) and combined with sociodemographic and environmental data from the 2010 population census. Population mobility was extracted from the Origin-Destination Survey (ODS), carried out in 2011, and daily precipitation was obtained from satellite imagery. Multivariate zero-inflated negative binomial regression models were applied. High population mobility presented a relevant positive effect on higher risk for DENV incidence. High income and residence in apartments were found to be protective characteristics against the disease, while unpaved streets, number of strategic points (such as scrapyards and tire repair shops), and precipitation were consistently risk factors. |
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Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública Sergio Arouca, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz |
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2021 |
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http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0102-311X2021000405003 |
work_keys_str_mv |
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