Resilience of vegetation cover in Southwest Mexico to the climate change effects

Resilience of vegetation cover in Southwest Mexico to the climate change effects

The scenarios modeling of climate changes using geographic information systems to estimate the vegetation cover resilience is a useful tool to project future impacts and implement conservation or management strategies. We associate spatially the biodiversity of the vegetation cover of Southwest Mexico with its ability to adapt to the effects of climate change. We analysis this association estimating species richness and diversity indices, and its relationship with scenarios of future climate. Geographical records of the National Forest and Soil Inventory were obtained for eight plant communities (arboreal, shrubby, herbaceous, palm, cactus, vines, ferns, and xerophyte) distributed in Guerrero, Oaxaca, and Chiapas. The climatic projection was to 2050, with global circulation A2 models (CCCMA, HADCM3 and CSIRO average), 19 bioclimatic variables and a resolution of 2.5 minutes. Climate change scenarios were modelled with the MaxEnt algorithm and species richness, diversity index, and spatial regressions with Diva-GIS v7.5 software. The spatial regression models estimated that higher richness and species diversity, the greater resilience that the ecosystem would show. The cactus, palm, and xerophytic plant communities presented greater vulnerability to climate change. Variations in temperature seasonality turned out to be the factor that would condition its future distribution. Therefore, in conservation or management strategies, diversity should be considered as an agent of the ecosystem that cushions the negative effects of future climate.

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Main Authors: Santillán-Fernández, Alberto, Vargas Cabrera, Iris Idalia, Pelcastre Ruiz, Luis Marcelino, Carrillo Ávila, Eugenio, Alatorre Cobos, Fulgencio, Bautista Ortega, Jaime
Format: Digital revista
Language:spa
Published: Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos, Facultad de Ciencias Biológicas 2021
Online Access:https://revistasinvestigacion.unmsm.edu.pe/index.php/rpb/article/view/18187
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country Perú
countrycode PE
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libraryname Biblioteca de la Facultad de Ciencias Biológicas
language spa
format Digital
author Santillán-Fernández, Alberto
Vargas Cabrera, Iris Idalia
Pelcastre Ruiz, Luis Marcelino
Carrillo Ávila, Eugenio
Alatorre Cobos, Fulgencio
Bautista Ortega, Jaime
spellingShingle Santillán-Fernández, Alberto
Vargas Cabrera, Iris Idalia
Pelcastre Ruiz, Luis Marcelino
Carrillo Ávila, Eugenio
Alatorre Cobos, Fulgencio
Bautista Ortega, Jaime
Resilience of vegetation cover in Southwest Mexico to the climate change effects
author_facet Santillán-Fernández, Alberto
Vargas Cabrera, Iris Idalia
Pelcastre Ruiz, Luis Marcelino
Carrillo Ávila, Eugenio
Alatorre Cobos, Fulgencio
Bautista Ortega, Jaime
author_sort Santillán-Fernández, Alberto
title Resilience of vegetation cover in Southwest Mexico to the climate change effects
title_short Resilience of vegetation cover in Southwest Mexico to the climate change effects
title_full Resilience of vegetation cover in Southwest Mexico to the climate change effects
title_fullStr Resilience of vegetation cover in Southwest Mexico to the climate change effects
title_full_unstemmed Resilience of vegetation cover in Southwest Mexico to the climate change effects
title_sort resilience of vegetation cover in southwest mexico to the climate change effects
description The scenarios modeling of climate changes using geographic information systems to estimate the vegetation cover resilience is a useful tool to project future impacts and implement conservation or management strategies. We associate spatially the biodiversity of the vegetation cover of Southwest Mexico with its ability to adapt to the effects of climate change. We analysis this association estimating species richness and diversity indices, and its relationship with scenarios of future climate. Geographical records of the National Forest and Soil Inventory were obtained for eight plant communities (arboreal, shrubby, herbaceous, palm, cactus, vines, ferns, and xerophyte) distributed in Guerrero, Oaxaca, and Chiapas. The climatic projection was to 2050, with global circulation A2 models (CCCMA, HADCM3 and CSIRO average), 19 bioclimatic variables and a resolution of 2.5 minutes. Climate change scenarios were modelled with the MaxEnt algorithm and species richness, diversity index, and spatial regressions with Diva-GIS v7.5 software. The spatial regression models estimated that higher richness and species diversity, the greater resilience that the ecosystem would show. The cactus, palm, and xerophytic plant communities presented greater vulnerability to climate change. Variations in temperature seasonality turned out to be the factor that would condition its future distribution. Therefore, in conservation or management strategies, diversity should be considered as an agent of the ecosystem that cushions the negative effects of future climate.
publisher Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos, Facultad de Ciencias Biológicas
publishDate 2021
url https://revistasinvestigacion.unmsm.edu.pe/index.php/rpb/article/view/18187
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spelling oai:ojs.csi.unmsm:article181872021-05-29T02:30:02Z Resilience of vegetation cover in Southwest Mexico to the climate change effects Resiliencia de la cobertura vegetal en el Suroeste de México ante los efectos del cambio climático Santillán-Fernández, Alberto Vargas Cabrera, Iris Idalia Pelcastre Ruiz, Luis Marcelino Carrillo Ávila, Eugenio Alatorre Cobos, Fulgencio Bautista Ortega, Jaime Species diversity Ecosystem MaxEnt Species richness Geographic Information Systems Climate Change Resilience vegetation cover Southwest Mexico Diversidad de especies Ecosistema MaxEnt Riqueza de especies Sistemas de Información Geográfica Cambio Climático Resiliencia cobertura vegetal Suroeste de México The scenarios modeling of climate changes using geographic information systems to estimate the vegetation cover resilience is a useful tool to project future impacts and implement conservation or management strategies. We associate spatially the biodiversity of the vegetation cover of Southwest Mexico with its ability to adapt to the effects of climate change. We analysis this association estimating species richness and diversity indices, and its relationship with scenarios of future climate. Geographical records of the National Forest and Soil Inventory were obtained for eight plant communities (arboreal, shrubby, herbaceous, palm, cactus, vines, ferns, and xerophyte) distributed in Guerrero, Oaxaca, and Chiapas. The climatic projection was to 2050, with global circulation A2 models (CCCMA, HADCM3 and CSIRO average), 19 bioclimatic variables and a resolution of 2.5 minutes. Climate change scenarios were modelled with the MaxEnt algorithm and species richness, diversity index, and spatial regressions with Diva-GIS v7.5 software. The spatial regression models estimated that higher richness and species diversity, the greater resilience that the ecosystem would show. The cactus, palm, and xerophytic plant communities presented greater vulnerability to climate change. Variations in temperature seasonality turned out to be the factor that would condition its future distribution. Therefore, in conservation or management strategies, diversity should be considered as an agent of the ecosystem that cushions the negative effects of future climate. El modelado de escenarios de cambios climáticos utilizando sistemas de información geográfica para estimar la resiliencia de la cobertura vegetal es una herramienta útil para proyectar impactos futuros e implementar estrategias de conservación o manejo. En el presente trabajo asociamos espacialmente la biodiversidad de la cobertura vegetal del Suroeste de México con su capacidad para adaptarse a los efectos del cambio climático. Para analizar esta asociación se estimaron índices de riqueza y diversidad de especies, y su relación con escenarios de clima futuro. Se utilizaron los registros geográficos del Inventario Nacional Forestal y de Suelos para ocho comunidades vegetales (arbórea, arbustiva, herbácea, palma, cactus, bejucos, helechos y xerófita) distribuidas entre Guerrero, Oaxaca y Chiapas. La proyección climática fue al 2050, con modelos de circulación global A2 (promedio CCCMA, HADCM3 y CSIRO), 19 variables bioclimáticas y una resolución de 2.5 minutos. Los escenarios de cambio climático se modelaron con el algoritmo MaxEnt y la riqueza de especies, índice de diversidad y regresiones espaciales con el software Diva-GIS v7.5. Los modelos de regresión espacial estimaron que a mayor riqueza y diversidad de especies mayor seria la resiliencia que mostraría el ecosistema. Las comunidades vegetales cactus, palma y xerófita mostraron mayor vulnerabilidad al cambio climático. Las variaciones en la estacionalidad de la temperatura resultó ser el factor que condicionaría su distribución futura. Por lo que, las estrategias de conservación o manejo deberían considerar a la diversidad como un agente del ecosistema que amortiguaría a los efectos negativos del clima futuro. Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos, Facultad de Ciencias Biológicas 2021-05-26 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/article application/pdf https://revistasinvestigacion.unmsm.edu.pe/index.php/rpb/article/view/18187 10.15381/rpb.v28i2.18187 Revista Peruana de Biología; Vol. 28 No. 2 (2021); e18187 Revista Peruana de Biología; Vol. 28 Núm. 2 (2021); e18187 1727-9933 1561-0837 10.15381/rpb.v28i2 spa https://revistasinvestigacion.unmsm.edu.pe/index.php/rpb/article/view/18187/16702 Derechos de autor 2021 Alberto Santillán-Fernández, Iris Idalia Vargas Cabrera, Luis Marcelino Pelcastre Ruiz, Eugenio Carrillo Ávila, Fulgencio Alatorre Cobos, Jaime Bautista Ortega https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0

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