Application of HydroBID and InVEST hydrologic models in tributaries of Lake Yojoa watershed

The relationship established by different natural and social variables make up the ecology of lakes and become a component for the communities that surround it. Hydrologic models are used to represent the relationship between abiotic elements in watersheds and provide a complete view on the dynamics that take place in a given territory. The Hydro-BID model is a process-based hydrologic model that was calibrated for the Yure and Varsovia River basins to perform the watershed-scale simulations. This study adresses the effect of climate change as a variable with potential impactsin the montly and annual flow into Lake Yojoa, Honduras. The InVEST® Nutrient Delivery ratio (NDR) was used to estimate nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) loads spactially distributed in the basin. As a result, this study presents the HydroBID model as an effective tool for estimating monthly streamflow in the Yure and Varsovia river basins with a Nash-Sutcliffe effciency index (NSE) of 0.85. Moreover, climate change scenarios modeled, indicate an increase in outflow under the SSP2-4.5 scenario by 2040, while the SSP3-7.0 scenario predicts a decrease in monthly outflow, primarily influenced by changes in precipitation. Finally, the InVEST® NDR model is suitable for estimating nutrient exports from non-point sources in the Yure and Varsovia basins and can be calibrated for validation of the nutrient loads input into Lake Yojoa.