On the relativity of quantitative model results for policy purposes in the social sciences

This paper discusses potential sources of misinterpretation of quantitative model results by policy makers. It is argued that model results are relative, i.e. their correct interpretation depends on (1a) the policy maker for whom the model was meant for as a decision support system - and related - (1b) whether they are meant as descriptive or prescriptive, and (2), in case of uncertainty, whether actors or the policy maker experiences uncertainty. It is concluded that explicit identification of (1a) the preferences and decision power of the policy maker for whom the model is developed for, (1b) the descriptive or prescriptive character of the model, and (2) who experience uncertainty, will lower the chance of misinterpretation of model results. Examples of potential misinterpretation of model results are given for the field of greenhouse gas emission control.

Bibliographic Details

Main Author:	Mensink, P.G.C.
Format:	External research report biblioteca
Language:	English
Published:	Wageningen University
Subjects:	climatic change, decision making, environmental policy, modeling, uncertainty, besluitvorming, klimaatverandering, milieubeleid, modelleren, onzekerheid,
Online Access:	https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/on-the-relativity-of-quantitative-model-results-for-policy-purpos
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