Mechanistic models for West Nile virus transmission : a systematic review of features, aims and parametrization
Mathematical models within the Ross–Macdonald framework increasingly play a role in our understanding of vector-borne disease dynamics and as tools for assessing scenarios to respond to emerging threats. These threats are typically characterized by a high degree of heterogeneity, introducing a range of possible complexities in models and challenges to maintain the link with empirical evidence. We systematically identified and analysed a total of 77 published papers presenting compartmental West Nile virus (WNV) models that use parameter values derived from empirical studies. Using a set of 15 criteria, we measured the dissimilarity compared with the Ross–Macdonald framework. We also retrieved the purpose and type of models and traced the empirical sources of their parameters. Our review highlights the increasing refinements in WNV models. Models for prediction included the highest number of refinements. We found uneven distributions of refinements and of evidence for parameter values. We identified several challenges in parametrizing such increasingly complex models. For parameters common to most models, we also synthesize the empirical evidence for their values and ranges. The study highlights the potential to improve the quality of WNV models and their applicability for policy by establishing closer collaboration between mathematical modelling and empirical work.
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Format: | Article/Letter to editor biblioteca |
Language: | English |
Subjects: | Ross–Macdonald, West Nile virus, epidemiology, mathematical modelling, vector-borne diseases, |
Online Access: | https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/mechanistic-models-for-west-nile-virus-transmission-a-systematic- |
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dig-wur-nl-wurpubs-6288272024-10-02 de Wit, Mariken M. Martins, Afonso Dimas Delecroix, Clara Heesterbeek, Hans ten Bosch, Quirine A. Article/Letter to editor Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 291 (2024) 2018 ISSN: 0962-8452 Mechanistic models for West Nile virus transmission : a systematic review of features, aims and parametrization 2024 Mathematical models within the Ross–Macdonald framework increasingly play a role in our understanding of vector-borne disease dynamics and as tools for assessing scenarios to respond to emerging threats. These threats are typically characterized by a high degree of heterogeneity, introducing a range of possible complexities in models and challenges to maintain the link with empirical evidence. We systematically identified and analysed a total of 77 published papers presenting compartmental West Nile virus (WNV) models that use parameter values derived from empirical studies. Using a set of 15 criteria, we measured the dissimilarity compared with the Ross–Macdonald framework. We also retrieved the purpose and type of models and traced the empirical sources of their parameters. Our review highlights the increasing refinements in WNV models. Models for prediction included the highest number of refinements. We found uneven distributions of refinements and of evidence for parameter values. We identified several challenges in parametrizing such increasingly complex models. For parameters common to most models, we also synthesize the empirical evidence for their values and ranges. The study highlights the potential to improve the quality of WNV models and their applicability for policy by establishing closer collaboration between mathematical modelling and empirical work. en application/pdf https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/mechanistic-models-for-west-nile-virus-transmission-a-systematic- 10.1098/rspb.2023.2432 https://edepot.wur.nl/654926 Ross–Macdonald West Nile virus epidemiology mathematical modelling vector-borne diseases https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Wageningen University & Research |
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Ross–Macdonald West Nile virus epidemiology mathematical modelling vector-borne diseases Ross–Macdonald West Nile virus epidemiology mathematical modelling vector-borne diseases |
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Ross–Macdonald West Nile virus epidemiology mathematical modelling vector-borne diseases Ross–Macdonald West Nile virus epidemiology mathematical modelling vector-borne diseases de Wit, Mariken M. Martins, Afonso Dimas Delecroix, Clara Heesterbeek, Hans ten Bosch, Quirine A. Mechanistic models for West Nile virus transmission : a systematic review of features, aims and parametrization |
description |
Mathematical models within the Ross–Macdonald framework increasingly play a role in our understanding of vector-borne disease dynamics and as tools for assessing scenarios to respond to emerging threats. These threats are typically characterized by a high degree of heterogeneity, introducing a range of possible complexities in models and challenges to maintain the link with empirical evidence. We systematically identified and analysed a total of 77 published papers presenting compartmental West Nile virus (WNV) models that use parameter values derived from empirical studies. Using a set of 15 criteria, we measured the dissimilarity compared with the Ross–Macdonald framework. We also retrieved the purpose and type of models and traced the empirical sources of their parameters. Our review highlights the increasing refinements in WNV models. Models for prediction included the highest number of refinements. We found uneven distributions of refinements and of evidence for parameter values. We identified several challenges in parametrizing such increasingly complex models. For parameters common to most models, we also synthesize the empirical evidence for their values and ranges. The study highlights the potential to improve the quality of WNV models and their applicability for policy by establishing closer collaboration between mathematical modelling and empirical work. |
format |
Article/Letter to editor |
topic_facet |
Ross–Macdonald West Nile virus epidemiology mathematical modelling vector-borne diseases |
author |
de Wit, Mariken M. Martins, Afonso Dimas Delecroix, Clara Heesterbeek, Hans ten Bosch, Quirine A. |
author_facet |
de Wit, Mariken M. Martins, Afonso Dimas Delecroix, Clara Heesterbeek, Hans ten Bosch, Quirine A. |
author_sort |
de Wit, Mariken M. |
title |
Mechanistic models for West Nile virus transmission : a systematic review of features, aims and parametrization |
title_short |
Mechanistic models for West Nile virus transmission : a systematic review of features, aims and parametrization |
title_full |
Mechanistic models for West Nile virus transmission : a systematic review of features, aims and parametrization |
title_fullStr |
Mechanistic models for West Nile virus transmission : a systematic review of features, aims and parametrization |
title_full_unstemmed |
Mechanistic models for West Nile virus transmission : a systematic review of features, aims and parametrization |
title_sort |
mechanistic models for west nile virus transmission : a systematic review of features, aims and parametrization |
url |
https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/mechanistic-models-for-west-nile-virus-transmission-a-systematic- |
work_keys_str_mv |
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