Better before worse trajectories in food systems? An investigation of synergies and trade-offs through climate-smart agriculture and system dynamics

CONTEXT: Food systems face multiple challenges simultaneously: provision to a growing population, adaptation to more extreme and frequent climate change risks, and reduction of their considerable greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Food system interventions and policies give rise to synergies and trade-offs that emerge over time due to the dynamic nature and interconnections of system elements. Analysis of an entire food system is necessary to identify synergies that bring simultaneous benefits and mitigate trade-offs, both short- and long-term. OBJECTIVE: Our study aims to inform the sustainable transformation of food systems by identifying short- and long-term synergies and trade-offs in the climate-smart village (CSV) Lawra-Jirapa in northern Ghana under the current practices, technologies, policies, and trends of population growth, extreme events, and climate change impacts. METHODS: We develop a system dynamics model to simulate the food system in the CSV between 2011 and 2060. We apply the climate-smart agriculture (CSA) approach as a diagnostic tool to the CSV system to reveal the short- and long-term trade-offs and synergies between the CSA goals. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The simulation results reveal short-term progress towards the goal of increased productivity and income, with trade-offs in the goals of GHG removal, climate adaptation, and resilience. In the long term, post-2035, current agriculture practices, technologies, and policies inside and outside the CSV boundaries result in trade-offs across all three CSA goals, and progress made towards these goals is reversed. The CSV system behaviour, thus, exhibits a “better before worse” pattern. SIGNIFICANCE: The analysis demonstrates an approach, which considers simultaneously all three CSA goals, to identify synergies and mitigate trade-offs in an entire food system. The findings suggest that understanding the dynamics of food systems is a precursor to their sustainable transformation. This transformation will entail changes to the food system's goals and structure with equal attention to short- and long-term outcomes.

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Main Authors: Jagustović, Renata, Papachristos, George, Zougmoré, Robert B., Kotir, Julius H., Kessler, Aad, Ouédraogo, Mathieu, Ritsema, Coen J., Dittmer, Kyle M.
Format: Article/Letter to editor biblioteca
Language:English
Subjects:Climate change, Food security, Smallholder agriculture, System dynamics modelling, Systems thinking, West Africa,
Online Access:https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/better-before-worse-trajectories-in-food-systems-an-investigation
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spelling dig-wur-nl-wurpubs-5823602024-12-04 Jagustović, Renata Papachristos, George Zougmoré, Robert B. Kotir, Julius H. Kessler, Aad Ouédraogo, Mathieu Ritsema, Coen J. Dittmer, Kyle M. Article/Letter to editor Agricultural Systems 190 (2021) ISSN: 0308-521X Better before worse trajectories in food systems? An investigation of synergies and trade-offs through climate-smart agriculture and system dynamics 2021 CONTEXT: Food systems face multiple challenges simultaneously: provision to a growing population, adaptation to more extreme and frequent climate change risks, and reduction of their considerable greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Food system interventions and policies give rise to synergies and trade-offs that emerge over time due to the dynamic nature and interconnections of system elements. Analysis of an entire food system is necessary to identify synergies that bring simultaneous benefits and mitigate trade-offs, both short- and long-term. OBJECTIVE: Our study aims to inform the sustainable transformation of food systems by identifying short- and long-term synergies and trade-offs in the climate-smart village (CSV) Lawra-Jirapa in northern Ghana under the current practices, technologies, policies, and trends of population growth, extreme events, and climate change impacts. METHODS: We develop a system dynamics model to simulate the food system in the CSV between 2011 and 2060. We apply the climate-smart agriculture (CSA) approach as a diagnostic tool to the CSV system to reveal the short- and long-term trade-offs and synergies between the CSA goals. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The simulation results reveal short-term progress towards the goal of increased productivity and income, with trade-offs in the goals of GHG removal, climate adaptation, and resilience. In the long term, post-2035, current agriculture practices, technologies, and policies inside and outside the CSV boundaries result in trade-offs across all three CSA goals, and progress made towards these goals is reversed. The CSV system behaviour, thus, exhibits a “better before worse” pattern. SIGNIFICANCE: The analysis demonstrates an approach, which considers simultaneously all three CSA goals, to identify synergies and mitigate trade-offs in an entire food system. The findings suggest that understanding the dynamics of food systems is a precursor to their sustainable transformation. This transformation will entail changes to the food system's goals and structure with equal attention to short- and long-term outcomes. en application/pdf https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/better-before-worse-trajectories-in-food-systems-an-investigation 10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103131 https://edepot.wur.nl/546821 Climate change Food security Smallholder agriculture System dynamics modelling Systems thinking West Africa https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Wageningen University & Research
institution WUR NL
collection DSpace
country Países bajos
countrycode NL
component Bibliográfico
access En linea
databasecode dig-wur-nl
tag biblioteca
region Europa del Oeste
libraryname WUR Library Netherlands
language English
topic Climate change
Food security
Smallholder agriculture
System dynamics modelling
Systems thinking
West Africa
Climate change
Food security
Smallholder agriculture
System dynamics modelling
Systems thinking
West Africa
spellingShingle Climate change
Food security
Smallholder agriculture
System dynamics modelling
Systems thinking
West Africa
Climate change
Food security
Smallholder agriculture
System dynamics modelling
Systems thinking
West Africa
Jagustović, Renata
Papachristos, George
Zougmoré, Robert B.
Kotir, Julius H.
Kessler, Aad
Ouédraogo, Mathieu
Ritsema, Coen J.
Dittmer, Kyle M.
Better before worse trajectories in food systems? An investigation of synergies and trade-offs through climate-smart agriculture and system dynamics
description CONTEXT: Food systems face multiple challenges simultaneously: provision to a growing population, adaptation to more extreme and frequent climate change risks, and reduction of their considerable greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Food system interventions and policies give rise to synergies and trade-offs that emerge over time due to the dynamic nature and interconnections of system elements. Analysis of an entire food system is necessary to identify synergies that bring simultaneous benefits and mitigate trade-offs, both short- and long-term. OBJECTIVE: Our study aims to inform the sustainable transformation of food systems by identifying short- and long-term synergies and trade-offs in the climate-smart village (CSV) Lawra-Jirapa in northern Ghana under the current practices, technologies, policies, and trends of population growth, extreme events, and climate change impacts. METHODS: We develop a system dynamics model to simulate the food system in the CSV between 2011 and 2060. We apply the climate-smart agriculture (CSA) approach as a diagnostic tool to the CSV system to reveal the short- and long-term trade-offs and synergies between the CSA goals. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The simulation results reveal short-term progress towards the goal of increased productivity and income, with trade-offs in the goals of GHG removal, climate adaptation, and resilience. In the long term, post-2035, current agriculture practices, technologies, and policies inside and outside the CSV boundaries result in trade-offs across all three CSA goals, and progress made towards these goals is reversed. The CSV system behaviour, thus, exhibits a “better before worse” pattern. SIGNIFICANCE: The analysis demonstrates an approach, which considers simultaneously all three CSA goals, to identify synergies and mitigate trade-offs in an entire food system. The findings suggest that understanding the dynamics of food systems is a precursor to their sustainable transformation. This transformation will entail changes to the food system's goals and structure with equal attention to short- and long-term outcomes.
format Article/Letter to editor
topic_facet Climate change
Food security
Smallholder agriculture
System dynamics modelling
Systems thinking
West Africa
author Jagustović, Renata
Papachristos, George
Zougmoré, Robert B.
Kotir, Julius H.
Kessler, Aad
Ouédraogo, Mathieu
Ritsema, Coen J.
Dittmer, Kyle M.
author_facet Jagustović, Renata
Papachristos, George
Zougmoré, Robert B.
Kotir, Julius H.
Kessler, Aad
Ouédraogo, Mathieu
Ritsema, Coen J.
Dittmer, Kyle M.
author_sort Jagustović, Renata
title Better before worse trajectories in food systems? An investigation of synergies and trade-offs through climate-smart agriculture and system dynamics
title_short Better before worse trajectories in food systems? An investigation of synergies and trade-offs through climate-smart agriculture and system dynamics
title_full Better before worse trajectories in food systems? An investigation of synergies and trade-offs through climate-smart agriculture and system dynamics
title_fullStr Better before worse trajectories in food systems? An investigation of synergies and trade-offs through climate-smart agriculture and system dynamics
title_full_unstemmed Better before worse trajectories in food systems? An investigation of synergies and trade-offs through climate-smart agriculture and system dynamics
title_sort better before worse trajectories in food systems? an investigation of synergies and trade-offs through climate-smart agriculture and system dynamics
url https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/better-before-worse-trajectories-in-food-systems-an-investigation
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