Can model structure families be inferred from model output?

In model studies, a careful consideration of uncertainty is needed. Parameter and data uncertainty can be explored by sampling, but model structure uncertainty is more challenging to capture since the underlying hypotheses of many models are not directly clear. This study explores whether model structure can be inferred from model output. We created a dendrogram (family tree) based on model structure using a modular modelling framework. Subsequently, we created dendrograms based on model output. We determined the correlation between both dendrograms to analysed if model structure families could be inferred from model output. Results from this experiment over 671 climate instances showed that the performance of the inference depends on the type of output evaluated, and the climate. However, the performance of the inference is overall low, implying that model structure cannot be inferred from model output. These results demonstrate the need to further investigate opportunities to sample model space.

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Remmers, Janneke O.E., Teuling, Adriaan J., Melsen, Lieke A.
Format: Article/Letter to editor biblioteca
Language:English
Subjects:Dendrogram, Model genealogy, Model structure uncertainty, Modular modelling framework, Sampling model space, Signatures,
Online Access:https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/can-model-structure-families-be-inferred-from-model-output
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spelling dig-wur-nl-wurpubs-5692022024-08-14 Remmers, Janneke O.E. Teuling, Adriaan J. Melsen, Lieke A. Article/Letter to editor Environmental Modelling and Software 133 (2020) ISSN: 1364-8152 Can model structure families be inferred from model output? 2020 In model studies, a careful consideration of uncertainty is needed. Parameter and data uncertainty can be explored by sampling, but model structure uncertainty is more challenging to capture since the underlying hypotheses of many models are not directly clear. This study explores whether model structure can be inferred from model output. We created a dendrogram (family tree) based on model structure using a modular modelling framework. Subsequently, we created dendrograms based on model output. We determined the correlation between both dendrograms to analysed if model structure families could be inferred from model output. Results from this experiment over 671 climate instances showed that the performance of the inference depends on the type of output evaluated, and the climate. However, the performance of the inference is overall low, implying that model structure cannot be inferred from model output. These results demonstrate the need to further investigate opportunities to sample model space. en application/pdf https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/can-model-structure-families-be-inferred-from-model-output 10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104817 https://edepot.wur.nl/530365 Dendrogram Model genealogy Model structure uncertainty Modular modelling framework Sampling model space Signatures https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Wageningen University & Research
institution WUR NL
collection DSpace
country Países bajos
countrycode NL
component Bibliográfico
access En linea
databasecode dig-wur-nl
tag biblioteca
region Europa del Oeste
libraryname WUR Library Netherlands
language English
topic Dendrogram
Model genealogy
Model structure uncertainty
Modular modelling framework
Sampling model space
Signatures
Dendrogram
Model genealogy
Model structure uncertainty
Modular modelling framework
Sampling model space
Signatures
spellingShingle Dendrogram
Model genealogy
Model structure uncertainty
Modular modelling framework
Sampling model space
Signatures
Dendrogram
Model genealogy
Model structure uncertainty
Modular modelling framework
Sampling model space
Signatures
Remmers, Janneke O.E.
Teuling, Adriaan J.
Melsen, Lieke A.
Can model structure families be inferred from model output?
description In model studies, a careful consideration of uncertainty is needed. Parameter and data uncertainty can be explored by sampling, but model structure uncertainty is more challenging to capture since the underlying hypotheses of many models are not directly clear. This study explores whether model structure can be inferred from model output. We created a dendrogram (family tree) based on model structure using a modular modelling framework. Subsequently, we created dendrograms based on model output. We determined the correlation between both dendrograms to analysed if model structure families could be inferred from model output. Results from this experiment over 671 climate instances showed that the performance of the inference depends on the type of output evaluated, and the climate. However, the performance of the inference is overall low, implying that model structure cannot be inferred from model output. These results demonstrate the need to further investigate opportunities to sample model space.
format Article/Letter to editor
topic_facet Dendrogram
Model genealogy
Model structure uncertainty
Modular modelling framework
Sampling model space
Signatures
author Remmers, Janneke O.E.
Teuling, Adriaan J.
Melsen, Lieke A.
author_facet Remmers, Janneke O.E.
Teuling, Adriaan J.
Melsen, Lieke A.
author_sort Remmers, Janneke O.E.
title Can model structure families be inferred from model output?
title_short Can model structure families be inferred from model output?
title_full Can model structure families be inferred from model output?
title_fullStr Can model structure families be inferred from model output?
title_full_unstemmed Can model structure families be inferred from model output?
title_sort can model structure families be inferred from model output?
url https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/can-model-structure-families-be-inferred-from-model-output
work_keys_str_mv AT remmersjannekeoe canmodelstructurefamiliesbeinferredfrommodeloutput
AT teulingadriaanj canmodelstructurefamiliesbeinferredfrommodeloutput
AT melsenliekea canmodelstructurefamiliesbeinferredfrommodeloutput
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