Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives

Xylella fastidiosa is the causal agent of plant diseases that cause massive economic damage. In 2013, a strain of the bacterium was, for the first time, detected in the European territory (Italy), causing the Olive Quick Decline Syndrome. We simulate future spread of the disease based on climatic-suitability modeling and radial expansion of the invaded territory. An economic model is developed to compute impact based on discounted foregone profits and losses in investment. The model projects impact for Italy, Greece, and Spain, as these countries account for around 95% of the European olive oil production. Climatic suitability modeling indicates that, depending on the suitability threshold, 95.5 to 98.9%, 99.2 to 99.8%, and 84.6 to 99.1% of the national areas of production fall into suitable territory in Italy, Greece, and Spain, respectively. For Italy, across the considered rates of radial range expansion the potential economic impact over 50 y ranges from 1.9 billion to 5.2 billion Euros for the economic worst-case scenario, in which production ceases after orchards die off. If replanting with resistant varieties is feasible, the impact ranges from 0.6 billion to 1.6 billion Euros. Depending on whether replanting is feasible, between 0.5 billion and 1.3 billion Euros can be saved over the course of 50 y if disease spread is reduced from 5.18 to 1.1 km per year. The analysis stresses the necessity to strengthen the ongoing research on cultivar resistance traits and application of phytosanitary measures, including vector control and inoculum suppression, by removing host plants

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Schneider, Kevin, van der Werf, W., Cendoya, Martina, Mourits, M.C.M., Navas-Cortés, Juan A., Vicent, Antonio, Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.
Format: Article/Letter to editor biblioteca
Language:English
Subjects:Perennials, Pest risk assessment, Radial range expansion, Simulation, Species distribution models,
Online Access:https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/impact-of-xylella-fastidiosa-subspecies-pauca-in-european-olives
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
id dig-wur-nl-wurpubs-563604
record_format koha
spelling dig-wur-nl-wurpubs-5636042024-10-30 Schneider, Kevin van der Werf, W. Cendoya, Martina Mourits, M.C.M. Navas-Cortés, Juan A. Vicent, Antonio Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M. Article/Letter to editor Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 117 (2020) 17 ISSN: 0027-8424 Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives 2020 Xylella fastidiosa is the causal agent of plant diseases that cause massive economic damage. In 2013, a strain of the bacterium was, for the first time, detected in the European territory (Italy), causing the Olive Quick Decline Syndrome. We simulate future spread of the disease based on climatic-suitability modeling and radial expansion of the invaded territory. An economic model is developed to compute impact based on discounted foregone profits and losses in investment. The model projects impact for Italy, Greece, and Spain, as these countries account for around 95% of the European olive oil production. Climatic suitability modeling indicates that, depending on the suitability threshold, 95.5 to 98.9%, 99.2 to 99.8%, and 84.6 to 99.1% of the national areas of production fall into suitable territory in Italy, Greece, and Spain, respectively. For Italy, across the considered rates of radial range expansion the potential economic impact over 50 y ranges from 1.9 billion to 5.2 billion Euros for the economic worst-case scenario, in which production ceases after orchards die off. If replanting with resistant varieties is feasible, the impact ranges from 0.6 billion to 1.6 billion Euros. Depending on whether replanting is feasible, between 0.5 billion and 1.3 billion Euros can be saved over the course of 50 y if disease spread is reduced from 5.18 to 1.1 km per year. The analysis stresses the necessity to strengthen the ongoing research on cultivar resistance traits and application of phytosanitary measures, including vector control and inoculum suppression, by removing host plants en application/pdf https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/impact-of-xylella-fastidiosa-subspecies-pauca-in-european-olives 10.1073/pnas.1912206117 https://edepot.wur.nl/520374 Perennials Pest risk assessment Radial range expansion Simulation Species distribution models https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ Wageningen University & Research
institution WUR NL
collection DSpace
country Países bajos
countrycode NL
component Bibliográfico
access En linea
databasecode dig-wur-nl
tag biblioteca
region Europa del Oeste
libraryname WUR Library Netherlands
language English
topic Perennials
Pest risk assessment
Radial range expansion
Simulation
Species distribution models
Perennials
Pest risk assessment
Radial range expansion
Simulation
Species distribution models
spellingShingle Perennials
Pest risk assessment
Radial range expansion
Simulation
Species distribution models
Perennials
Pest risk assessment
Radial range expansion
Simulation
Species distribution models
Schneider, Kevin
van der Werf, W.
Cendoya, Martina
Mourits, M.C.M.
Navas-Cortés, Juan A.
Vicent, Antonio
Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.
Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives
description Xylella fastidiosa is the causal agent of plant diseases that cause massive economic damage. In 2013, a strain of the bacterium was, for the first time, detected in the European territory (Italy), causing the Olive Quick Decline Syndrome. We simulate future spread of the disease based on climatic-suitability modeling and radial expansion of the invaded territory. An economic model is developed to compute impact based on discounted foregone profits and losses in investment. The model projects impact for Italy, Greece, and Spain, as these countries account for around 95% of the European olive oil production. Climatic suitability modeling indicates that, depending on the suitability threshold, 95.5 to 98.9%, 99.2 to 99.8%, and 84.6 to 99.1% of the national areas of production fall into suitable territory in Italy, Greece, and Spain, respectively. For Italy, across the considered rates of radial range expansion the potential economic impact over 50 y ranges from 1.9 billion to 5.2 billion Euros for the economic worst-case scenario, in which production ceases after orchards die off. If replanting with resistant varieties is feasible, the impact ranges from 0.6 billion to 1.6 billion Euros. Depending on whether replanting is feasible, between 0.5 billion and 1.3 billion Euros can be saved over the course of 50 y if disease spread is reduced from 5.18 to 1.1 km per year. The analysis stresses the necessity to strengthen the ongoing research on cultivar resistance traits and application of phytosanitary measures, including vector control and inoculum suppression, by removing host plants
format Article/Letter to editor
topic_facet Perennials
Pest risk assessment
Radial range expansion
Simulation
Species distribution models
author Schneider, Kevin
van der Werf, W.
Cendoya, Martina
Mourits, M.C.M.
Navas-Cortés, Juan A.
Vicent, Antonio
Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.
author_facet Schneider, Kevin
van der Werf, W.
Cendoya, Martina
Mourits, M.C.M.
Navas-Cortés, Juan A.
Vicent, Antonio
Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.
author_sort Schneider, Kevin
title Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives
title_short Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives
title_full Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives
title_fullStr Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives
title_full_unstemmed Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives
title_sort impact of xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in european olives
url https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/impact-of-xylella-fastidiosa-subspecies-pauca-in-european-olives
work_keys_str_mv AT schneiderkevin impactofxylellafastidiosasubspeciespaucaineuropeanolives
AT vanderwerfw impactofxylellafastidiosasubspeciespaucaineuropeanolives
AT cendoyamartina impactofxylellafastidiosasubspeciespaucaineuropeanolives
AT mouritsmcm impactofxylellafastidiosasubspeciespaucaineuropeanolives
AT navascortesjuana impactofxylellafastidiosasubspeciespaucaineuropeanolives
AT vicentantonio impactofxylellafastidiosasubspeciespaucaineuropeanolives
AT oudelansinkagjm impactofxylellafastidiosasubspeciespaucaineuropeanolives
_version_ 1816155724806356992