Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives
Xylella fastidiosa is the causal agent of plant diseases that cause massive economic damage. In 2013, a strain of the bacterium was, for the first time, detected in the European territory (Italy), causing the Olive Quick Decline Syndrome. We simulate future spread of the disease based on climatic-suitability modeling and radial expansion of the invaded territory. An economic model is developed to compute impact based on discounted foregone profits and losses in investment. The model projects impact for Italy, Greece, and Spain, as these countries account for around 95% of the European olive oil production. Climatic suitability modeling indicates that, depending on the suitability threshold, 95.5 to 98.9%, 99.2 to 99.8%, and 84.6 to 99.1% of the national areas of production fall into suitable territory in Italy, Greece, and Spain, respectively. For Italy, across the considered rates of radial range expansion the potential economic impact over 50 y ranges from 1.9 billion to 5.2 billion Euros for the economic worst-case scenario, in which production ceases after orchards die off. If replanting with resistant varieties is feasible, the impact ranges from 0.6 billion to 1.6 billion Euros. Depending on whether replanting is feasible, between 0.5 billion and 1.3 billion Euros can be saved over the course of 50 y if disease spread is reduced from 5.18 to 1.1 km per year. The analysis stresses the necessity to strengthen the ongoing research on cultivar resistance traits and application of phytosanitary measures, including vector control and inoculum suppression, by removing host plants
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Format: | Article/Letter to editor biblioteca |
Language: | English |
Subjects: | Perennials, Pest risk assessment, Radial range expansion, Simulation, Species distribution models, |
Online Access: | https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/impact-of-xylella-fastidiosa-subspecies-pauca-in-european-olives |
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dig-wur-nl-wurpubs-5636042024-10-30 Schneider, Kevin van der Werf, W. Cendoya, Martina Mourits, M.C.M. Navas-Cortés, Juan A. Vicent, Antonio Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M. Article/Letter to editor Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 117 (2020) 17 ISSN: 0027-8424 Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives 2020 Xylella fastidiosa is the causal agent of plant diseases that cause massive economic damage. In 2013, a strain of the bacterium was, for the first time, detected in the European territory (Italy), causing the Olive Quick Decline Syndrome. We simulate future spread of the disease based on climatic-suitability modeling and radial expansion of the invaded territory. An economic model is developed to compute impact based on discounted foregone profits and losses in investment. The model projects impact for Italy, Greece, and Spain, as these countries account for around 95% of the European olive oil production. Climatic suitability modeling indicates that, depending on the suitability threshold, 95.5 to 98.9%, 99.2 to 99.8%, and 84.6 to 99.1% of the national areas of production fall into suitable territory in Italy, Greece, and Spain, respectively. For Italy, across the considered rates of radial range expansion the potential economic impact over 50 y ranges from 1.9 billion to 5.2 billion Euros for the economic worst-case scenario, in which production ceases after orchards die off. If replanting with resistant varieties is feasible, the impact ranges from 0.6 billion to 1.6 billion Euros. Depending on whether replanting is feasible, between 0.5 billion and 1.3 billion Euros can be saved over the course of 50 y if disease spread is reduced from 5.18 to 1.1 km per year. The analysis stresses the necessity to strengthen the ongoing research on cultivar resistance traits and application of phytosanitary measures, including vector control and inoculum suppression, by removing host plants en application/pdf https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/impact-of-xylella-fastidiosa-subspecies-pauca-in-european-olives 10.1073/pnas.1912206117 https://edepot.wur.nl/520374 Perennials Pest risk assessment Radial range expansion Simulation Species distribution models https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ Wageningen University & Research |
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Perennials Pest risk assessment Radial range expansion Simulation Species distribution models Perennials Pest risk assessment Radial range expansion Simulation Species distribution models Schneider, Kevin van der Werf, W. Cendoya, Martina Mourits, M.C.M. Navas-Cortés, Juan A. Vicent, Antonio Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M. Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives |
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Xylella fastidiosa is the causal agent of plant diseases that cause massive economic damage. In 2013, a strain of the bacterium was, for the first time, detected in the European territory (Italy), causing the Olive Quick Decline Syndrome. We simulate future spread of the disease based on climatic-suitability modeling and radial expansion of the invaded territory. An economic model is developed to compute impact based on discounted foregone profits and losses in investment. The model projects impact for Italy, Greece, and Spain, as these countries account for around 95% of the European olive oil production. Climatic suitability modeling indicates that, depending on the suitability threshold, 95.5 to 98.9%, 99.2 to 99.8%, and 84.6 to 99.1% of the national areas of production fall into suitable territory in Italy, Greece, and Spain, respectively. For Italy, across the considered rates of radial range expansion the potential economic impact over 50 y ranges from 1.9 billion to 5.2 billion Euros for the economic worst-case scenario, in which production ceases after orchards die off. If replanting with resistant varieties is feasible, the impact ranges from 0.6 billion to 1.6 billion Euros. Depending on whether replanting is feasible, between 0.5 billion and 1.3 billion Euros can be saved over the course of 50 y if disease spread is reduced from 5.18 to 1.1 km per year. The analysis stresses the necessity to strengthen the ongoing research on cultivar resistance traits and application of phytosanitary measures, including vector control and inoculum suppression, by removing host plants |
format |
Article/Letter to editor |
topic_facet |
Perennials Pest risk assessment Radial range expansion Simulation Species distribution models |
author |
Schneider, Kevin van der Werf, W. Cendoya, Martina Mourits, M.C.M. Navas-Cortés, Juan A. Vicent, Antonio Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M. |
author_facet |
Schneider, Kevin van der Werf, W. Cendoya, Martina Mourits, M.C.M. Navas-Cortés, Juan A. Vicent, Antonio Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M. |
author_sort |
Schneider, Kevin |
title |
Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives |
title_short |
Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives |
title_full |
Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives |
title_fullStr |
Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives |
title_full_unstemmed |
Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives |
title_sort |
impact of xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in european olives |
url |
https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/impact-of-xylella-fastidiosa-subspecies-pauca-in-european-olives |
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