Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself?
Although global food demand is expected to increase 60% by 2050 compared with 2005/2007, the rise will be much greater in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Indeed, SSA is the region at greatest food security risk because by 2050 its population will increase 2.5-fold and demand for cereals approximately triple, whereas current levels of cereal consumption already depend on substantial imports. At issue is whether SSA can meet this vast increase in cereal demand without greater reliance on cereal imports or major expansion of agricultural area and associated biodiversity loss and greenhouse gas emissions. Recent studies indicate that the global increase in food demand by 2050 can be met through closing the gap between current farm yield and yield potential on existing cropland. Here, however, we estimate it will not be feasible to meet future SSA cereal demand on existing production area by yield gap closure alone. Our agronomically robust yield gap analysis for 10 countries in SSA using location-specific data and a spatial upscaling approach reveals that, in addition to yield gap closure, other more complex and uncertain components of intensification are also needed, i.e., increasing cropping intensity (the number of crops grown per 12 mo on the same field) and sustainable expansion of irrigated production area. If intensification is not successful and massive cropland land expansion is to be avoided, SSA will depend much more on imports of cereals than it does today.
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Format: | Article/Letter to editor biblioteca |
Language: | English |
Subjects: | Cereals, Food availability, Food security, Food self-sufficiency, Yield gaps, |
Online Access: | https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/can-sub-saharan-africa-feed-itself |
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dig-wur-nl-wurpubs-5114172024-10-01 Van Ittersum, Martin K. Van Bussel, Lenny G.J. Wolf, Joost Grassini, Patricio Van Wart, Justin Guilpart, Nicolas Claessens, Lieven de Groot, Hugo Wiebe, Keith Mason-d’Croz, Daniel Yang, Haishun Boogaard, Hendrik van Oort, Pepijn A.J. van Loon, Marloes P. Saito, Kazuki Adimo, Ochieng Adjei-Nsiah, Samuel Agali, Alhassane Bala, Abdullahi Chikowo, Regis Kaizzi, Kayuki Kouressy, Mamoutou Makoi, Joachim H.J.R. Ouattara, Korodjouma Tesfaye, Kindie Cassman, Kenneth G. Article/Letter to editor Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 113 (2016) 52 ISSN: 0027-8424 Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself? 2016 Although global food demand is expected to increase 60% by 2050 compared with 2005/2007, the rise will be much greater in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Indeed, SSA is the region at greatest food security risk because by 2050 its population will increase 2.5-fold and demand for cereals approximately triple, whereas current levels of cereal consumption already depend on substantial imports. At issue is whether SSA can meet this vast increase in cereal demand without greater reliance on cereal imports or major expansion of agricultural area and associated biodiversity loss and greenhouse gas emissions. Recent studies indicate that the global increase in food demand by 2050 can be met through closing the gap between current farm yield and yield potential on existing cropland. Here, however, we estimate it will not be feasible to meet future SSA cereal demand on existing production area by yield gap closure alone. Our agronomically robust yield gap analysis for 10 countries in SSA using location-specific data and a spatial upscaling approach reveals that, in addition to yield gap closure, other more complex and uncertain components of intensification are also needed, i.e., increasing cropping intensity (the number of crops grown per 12 mo on the same field) and sustainable expansion of irrigated production area. If intensification is not successful and massive cropland land expansion is to be avoided, SSA will depend much more on imports of cereals than it does today. en application/pdf https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/can-sub-saharan-africa-feed-itself 10.1073/pnas.1610359113 https://edepot.wur.nl/402971 Cereals Food availability Food security Food self-sufficiency Yield gaps (c) publisher Wageningen University & Research |
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Cereals Food availability Food security Food self-sufficiency Yield gaps Cereals Food availability Food security Food self-sufficiency Yield gaps |
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Cereals Food availability Food security Food self-sufficiency Yield gaps Cereals Food availability Food security Food self-sufficiency Yield gaps Van Ittersum, Martin K. Van Bussel, Lenny G.J. Wolf, Joost Grassini, Patricio Van Wart, Justin Guilpart, Nicolas Claessens, Lieven de Groot, Hugo Wiebe, Keith Mason-d’Croz, Daniel Yang, Haishun Boogaard, Hendrik van Oort, Pepijn A.J. van Loon, Marloes P. Saito, Kazuki Adimo, Ochieng Adjei-Nsiah, Samuel Agali, Alhassane Bala, Abdullahi Chikowo, Regis Kaizzi, Kayuki Kouressy, Mamoutou Makoi, Joachim H.J.R. Ouattara, Korodjouma Tesfaye, Kindie Cassman, Kenneth G. Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself? |
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Although global food demand is expected to increase 60% by 2050 compared with 2005/2007, the rise will be much greater in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Indeed, SSA is the region at greatest food security risk because by 2050 its population will increase 2.5-fold and demand for cereals approximately triple, whereas current levels of cereal consumption already depend on substantial imports. At issue is whether SSA can meet this vast increase in cereal demand without greater reliance on cereal imports or major expansion of agricultural area and associated biodiversity loss and greenhouse gas emissions. Recent studies indicate that the global increase in food demand by 2050 can be met through closing the gap between current farm yield and yield potential on existing cropland. Here, however, we estimate it will not be feasible to meet future SSA cereal demand on existing production area by yield gap closure alone. Our agronomically robust yield gap analysis for 10 countries in SSA using location-specific data and a spatial upscaling approach reveals that, in addition to yield gap closure, other more complex and uncertain components of intensification are also needed, i.e., increasing cropping intensity (the number of crops grown per 12 mo on the same field) and sustainable expansion of irrigated production area. If intensification is not successful and massive cropland land expansion is to be avoided, SSA will depend much more on imports of cereals than it does today. |
format |
Article/Letter to editor |
topic_facet |
Cereals Food availability Food security Food self-sufficiency Yield gaps |
author |
Van Ittersum, Martin K. Van Bussel, Lenny G.J. Wolf, Joost Grassini, Patricio Van Wart, Justin Guilpart, Nicolas Claessens, Lieven de Groot, Hugo Wiebe, Keith Mason-d’Croz, Daniel Yang, Haishun Boogaard, Hendrik van Oort, Pepijn A.J. van Loon, Marloes P. Saito, Kazuki Adimo, Ochieng Adjei-Nsiah, Samuel Agali, Alhassane Bala, Abdullahi Chikowo, Regis Kaizzi, Kayuki Kouressy, Mamoutou Makoi, Joachim H.J.R. Ouattara, Korodjouma Tesfaye, Kindie Cassman, Kenneth G. |
author_facet |
Van Ittersum, Martin K. Van Bussel, Lenny G.J. Wolf, Joost Grassini, Patricio Van Wart, Justin Guilpart, Nicolas Claessens, Lieven de Groot, Hugo Wiebe, Keith Mason-d’Croz, Daniel Yang, Haishun Boogaard, Hendrik van Oort, Pepijn A.J. van Loon, Marloes P. Saito, Kazuki Adimo, Ochieng Adjei-Nsiah, Samuel Agali, Alhassane Bala, Abdullahi Chikowo, Regis Kaizzi, Kayuki Kouressy, Mamoutou Makoi, Joachim H.J.R. Ouattara, Korodjouma Tesfaye, Kindie Cassman, Kenneth G. |
author_sort |
Van Ittersum, Martin K. |
title |
Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself? |
title_short |
Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself? |
title_full |
Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself? |
title_fullStr |
Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself? |
title_sort |
can sub-saharan africa feed itself? |
url |
https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/can-sub-saharan-africa-feed-itself |
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