Stochastic fault tree analysis for agropark project appraisal

Agroparks offer in theory a variety of economic advantages and environmental benefits. Since agropark projects are typically capital intensive and with high societal impact, appraisal from lenders and policy makers will play a key role in the realisation of the concept. In practice, however, project appraisal is hampered by the complexity of the concept and the multitude of risks. In this paper, a methodology based on stochastic fault-tree analysis (FTA) was developed to support project managers and policy makers in making agropark investment decisions. The methodology is illustrated with an example agropark project.